NRL Grand Final 2022 - Key Matchups for Panthers vs Eels

The Panthers are set to take on the Eels in the 2022 NRL Grand Final, with one half of the draw as expected. 

The Penrith Panthers are playing in the last game of the year for the third consecutive season and will start as fairly significant favourites, just as they were before a ball had been kicked in Round 1.

The Parramatta Eels, on the other hand, are looking to end a 36-year premiership drought and will play in their first Grand Final since 2009.

Parramatta has beaten Penrith twice already this season but lost the one that mattered most in Week 1 of the NRL Finals. However, with wins over the Raiders and Cowboys, Brad Arthur's side has earned another bite at the cherry.

A lot needs to go right across the field to win but we're taking a look at three match-ups that are likely to define the 2022 NRL Grand Final.

Panthers vs Eels is at Accor Stadium on Sunday, October 2 at 7:30pm AEST.

The Halves Battle

NRL Player Ratings: Nathan Cleary (8.8), Jarome Luai (7.7) vs Mitchell Moses (8.2), Dylan Brown (8.0)

Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai are coming into their third consecutive NRL Grand Final. They've been here - and in State of Origin - and done it all together before. Cleary is the best halfback in the world, while Luai is a willing and able sidekick that knows how to inject himself into a game and play within his role.

Cleary has average 57.1 touches per game in 2022 and plays on the ball, directing his team around the field by pointing and passing them into position. In that time, Luai is scheming on the left edge and preparing for one of his 36.7 touches per game. They're a perfect match for each other.

Meanwhile, Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown share the load more between them. They often link up on the same side of the field as Brown, in particular, floats to either side of the ruck. Both can slot in at pivot and take on the creative duties before feeding the other to fire the decisive pass out wider. As a result, Moses averages only one less touch per game than Brown's 48.6.

A lot of this game will be decided on the production of the halves and how well the defence shuts them done.

For the Eels, it's important they apply constant pressure on Nathan Cleary. They were poor in this regard to start in Week 1 of the Finals and it should be at the top of their list of fixes for the Grand Final. Hurry him up and don't allow him to orchestrate the attack at his own pace. The Eels defence has improved as the year has gone on, but not enough to allow Cleary free passage with the ball in hand.

On the other side, the Panthers can't allow the Eels halves to play on the front foot. Brown is at his most dangerous playing direct and running the ball for his 124.2 metres per game. If he is allowed to play over the advantage line and apply his left foot step onto retreating and tired defenders, the points will come for Parramatta. On the other hand, Moses will be looking to plug himself down the short side. A two-pass play where he plays a big backrower onto the ball before sweeping around and taking it back on the following tackle. It's a big ask, but winning the contact against Isaiah Papali'i, in particular, is where the Panthers can reduce Moses' influence on the game.

They're in positions that are expected to dominate a game, but a lot needs to happen in front of them for Cleary, Luai, Moses and Brown to have a positive impact. 

MORE: NRL Try Location Analysis

Effort From The Back

NRL Player Ratings: Dylan Edwards (8.2) vs Clint Gutherson (7.7)

Dylan Edwards and Clint Gutherson aren't the most skilled fullbacks in the NRL right now. However, whatever they lack in the skills department they make up for in the effort areas.

Edwards has dominated the yardage game throughout the 2022 NRL season. His role is simple: be in position to return the ball, return it fast, and start Penrith's sets strong.

He has performed that role to perfection almost every week.

Edwards isn't one that finds himself on the end of a shift all that often. The Panthers are more likely to have Viliame Kikau running out the back of shape on the left edge than they are Edwards. As a result, Edwards' nine tries and six try assists don't jump off the page. His impact on the Panthers is crucial to their success, though.

Gutherson is just active around the ball. Edwards leads the NRL in total supports with 186 this season. Gutherson is just behind (playing three extra games) with 182 supports. However, the Eels fullback spends more time wider in attack and averages almost two more touches than his Panthers counterpart at 38.5 per game.

He uses those touches to have more of an impact in the later stages of an Eels set. With Moses and Brown both exceptionally good at straightening the attack and getting deep into the line before shifting the ball, Gutherson finds himself with time and space on the edges to manufacture points.

Gutherson has 14 tries, 18 try assists and 15 line break assists in 2022. It's in the traditional attacking numbers that Gutherson can win the battle of the fullbacks.

MORE: NRL True Kicker Ratings

Winning The Middle

NRL Player Ratings: James Fisher-Harris (7.7) vs Junior Paulo (7.5)

Both James Fisher-Harris and Junior Paulo have it in the numbers.

Few players in the NRL are harder to bring down than the big prop forwards. They're even in their yardage, both push through contact for roughly one-third of their total running metres and take up 8% of their teams' total runs.

The difference comes in areas that aren't so easily measured in the numbers publicly available.

Attacking players are stopped in their tracks when Fisher-Harris makes one of his 30.7 tackles per game. Post-contact metres come at a premium when that contact is being made with the 103kg Fisher-Harris. After the tackle, he works hard from marker to close out the first receiver and force an early pass.

His work rate in the little areas is among the best in the competition. Meanwhile, Paulo defies all logic by running around in his 123kg rig and passing like a halfback.

He will position himself at pivot where he will either collect a portion of his 146 running metres per game, or he will make it look that way before getting deep into the line and firing a pass to the chest of his halfback. What Paulo can do with his hands and feet at his size is remarkable.

Fisher-Harris and Paulo will impact the game in different ways. Fisher-Harris will lead the Panthers line speed and use his strength in defence to stop the Eels from moving up the field. Meanwhile, Paulo will use his ball-playing to isolate big bodies onto single defenders or shift the ball wide for the Eels to search down the edges. Both will go a long way to determining which team wins the battle in the middle of the field, and as is so often the case in rugby league, win the middle and you win the match.

Panthers vs Eels is at Accor Stadium on Sunday, October 2 at 7:30pm AEST.