World Cup 2022 Group A Predictions & Picks: Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador & Qatar

Last updated: Nov 17, 2022, 12:02PM | Published: Nov 16, 2022, 4:12PM

Using powerful predictive analytics, Stats Insider's team of data analysts has simulated Group A at the FIFA World Cup 2022 10,000 times to determine the probabilities and odds of the Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador and Qatar making it to each stage of the tournament.

World Cup Group A Predictions & Odds

The host nation is the least favoured team to advance to the second round, with the Netherlands projected to finish first in Group A.

Netherlands's projected probability to advance to the second round is 85.1%, with its probability to top the group sitting at 60.7%. The Stats Insider model rates Senegal as a 51.8% chance to advance, with Ecuador at 42.9% and Qatar at 20.2%.

The winner of Group A will most likely face USA in the round of 16.

Country	To Win Group A	To Advance From Group A
Netherlands	60.7%	85.1%
Senegal	18.5%	51.8%
Ecuador	15.5%	42.9%
Qatar	5.4%	20.2%

Group A Prediction: Netherlands

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Netherlands	$15	$15.50

Three time runners-up, the Netherlands qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup by topping Group G with seven wins, two draws and just one loss. After failing to qualify for the 2018 tournament, the Dutch side finished their 2022 qualification with a goal difference of +25 in 10 games.

Netherlands has a 53.3% chance of making the quarter finals.
Netherlands has a 28.4% chance of making the semi finals.
Netherlands has a 13.7% chance of making the World Cup final.
Netherlands has a 6.9% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

Key players for the Netherlands will include Memphis Depay of Barcelona in attack and Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool in defence.

For more information on the Netherlands's chances, check out our Netherlands World Cup 2022 Betting Preview.

Group A Prediction: Senegal

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Senegal	$150	$160

Senegal is set to appear at its second straight FIFA World Cup, having qualified for the 2022 version by defeating Mo Salah's Egypt in a penalty shootout. Heading into this tournament, Senegal is the 18th ranked team in the world.

Senegal has a 12.5% chance of making the quarter finals.
Senegal has an 8.2% chance of making the semi finals.
Senegal has a 2.7% chance of making the World Cup final.
Senegal has a 0.9% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

With Sadio Mane set to miss the World Cup due to injury, Senegal will be leaning on Ismaïla Sarr and Famara Diédhiou to score the majoiry of its goals.

Group A Prediction: Ecuador

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Ecuador	$290	$300

Having not qualified until the turn of the millennium, Ecuador is now appearing at its fourth FIFA World Cup in six attempts. Ecuador finished behind only Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay as automatic qualifiers from the South American qualification process.

Ecuador has a 16.1% chance of making the quarter finals.
Ecuador has a 5.3% chance of making the semi finals.
Ecuador has a 1.5% chance of making the World Cup final.
Ecuador has a 0.4% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

Moises Caicedo is one of three Brighton players in the Ecuadorian squad, with the most well-known player heading to Qatar being Enner Valencia of Fenerbahce.

Group A Prediction: Qatar

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Qatar	$820	$1000

As the host nation of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Qatar automatically qualified to appear in its first ever World Cup. Qatar does though enter as the 2019 Asian Cup champions.

Qatar has a 4.8% chance of making the quarter finals.
Qatar has a 1.0% chance of making the semi finals.
Qatar has a 0.2% chance of making the World Cup final.
Qatar has a 0.0% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

When Qatar won the 2019 Asian Cup, it was Almoez Ali who led the way with nine goals as he was named player of the tournament.

Where to watch World Cup Group A in Australia (AEDT)?

Every Group A game at FIFA World Cup 2022 will be free to watch in Australia, with games on SBS and SBS Viceland. Make your free SBS account here.

Qatar vs Ecuador: 21 November, 3:00AM
Senegal vs Netherlands: 22 November, 3:00AM
Qatar vs Senegal:, 25 November, 12:00AM
Netherlands vs Ecuador: 26 November, 3:00AM
Ecuador vs Senegal: 30 November, 2:00AM
Netherlands vs Qatar: 30 November, 2:00AM

Where to bet on World Cup Group A?

If you're looking to bet on Group A at World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market featuring Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador and Qatar.

More World Cup 2022 Group Previews

All odds and probabilities correct as of 17 November, 2022.

(Photos by Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images, Visionhaus/Getty Images)

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.