World Cup 2022 Group C Predictions & Picks: Argentina, Poland & Mexico, Saudi Arabia

Last updated: Nov 17, 2022, 12:04PM | Published: Nov 16, 2022, 4:12PM

Using powerful predictive analytics, Stats Insider's team of data analysts has simulated Group C at the FIFA World Cup 2022 10,000 times to determine the probabilities and odds of Argentina, Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia making it to each stage of the tournament.

World Cup Group C Predictions & Odds

One of the most likely teams to make the round of 16 in the entire tournament, Argentina is projected to win Group C with a probability of 84.9%.

The race for the second team to qualify looks to be tight between Poland and Mexico, with France likely awaiting the team who finished second in this group.

Country	To Win Group C	To Advance From Group C
Argentina	60.6%	84.9%
Poland	18.8%	53.2%
Mexico	17.5%	48.4%
Saudi Arabia	3.2%	13.5%

Group C Prediction: Argentina

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Argentina	$6.80	$7.00

Argentina has qualified for every single World Cup single failing to make it 1970, winning twice and making the final two more times in that run. Messi's side qualified for the 2022 World Cup with 11 wins, six draws and zero losses, finishing with a goal difference +19.

Argentina has a 51.5% chance of making the quarter finals.
Argentina has a 31.1% chance of making the semi finals.
Argentina has a 16.8% chance of making the World Cup final.
Argentina has an 8.8% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

In what could be his last FIFA World Cup, Lionel Messi will again be the main man for Argentina, with Lautaro Martinez a serious chance to win the tournament's Golden Boot award for scoring the most goals.

For more information on Argentina's chances, check out our Argentina World Cup 2022 Betting Preview.

Group C Prediction: Poland

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Poland	$250	$260

Poland will be looking to make it out of the group stage for the first time since 1986 after qualifying for the 2022 World Cup by defeating Sweden in the qualification play-off round.

Poland has a 20.2% chance of making the quarter finals.
Poland has an 8.6% chance of making the semi finals.
Poland has a 2.8% chance of making the World Cup final.
Poland has a 0.9% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

If Poland is to get close to matching its third place finishes in 1974 and 1982, Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski will be the one to the lead them there.

Group C Prediction: Mexico

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Mexico	$240	$250

Mexico has only missed one World Cup since 1982 when they were banned from the 1990 tournament due to fielding over-age players at the previous Olympic Games. Mexico qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup alongside fellow CONCACAF nations Canada and USA.

Mexico has an 18.2% chance of making the quarter finals.
Mexico has a 7.5% chance of making the semi finals.
Mexico has a 2.6% chance of making the World Cup final.
Mexico has a 0.9% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

Having been knocked out in the round of 16 at seven straight World Cups, Mexico will be looking to attacking threats such as Raul Jimenez and Hirving Lorzano to lead them to the final eight.

Group C Prediction: Saudi Arabia

Odds to win World Cup 2022	Back (Betfair Exchange)	Lay (Betfair Exchange)
Saudi Arabia	$1000	N/A

Saudi Arabia had one of the most impressive qualification campaigns in the AFC, with seven wins, two losses and one draw in the third and final round of qualifiers.

Saudi Arabia has a 2.4% chance of making the quarter finals.
Saudi Arabia has a 0.5% chance of making the semi finals.
Saudi Arabia has a 0.1% chance of making the World Cup final.
Saudi Arabia has a 0.0% chance of winning FIFA World Cup 2022.

With 17 career goals for Saudi Arabia and a game-winning goal at 2018 tournament, Salem Al-Dawsari will garner a lot of attention from opposition defences.

Where to watch World Cup Group C in Australia (AEDT)?

Every Group C game at FIFA World Cup 2022 will be free to watch in Australia, with games on SBS and SBS Viceland. Make your free SBS account here.

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia: 22 November, 9:00PM
Mexico vs Poland: 23 November, 3:00AM
Poland vs Saudi Arabia: 27 November, 12:00AM
Argentina vs Mexico: 27 November, 6:00AM
Poland vs Argentina: 1 December, 6:00AM
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico: 1 December, 6:00AM

Where to bet on World Cup Group C?

If you're looking to bet on Group C at World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market featuring Argentina, Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.

More World Cup 2022 Group Previews

All odds and probabilities correct as of 17 November, 2022.

(Photos by Elsa/Getty Images, Omar Vega/Getty Images)

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.