Australian Open 2023: Why the Aussie Underdogs Are a Dangerous Match-up

Aussie players have always presented a unique challenge at the Australian Open to overseas visitors with our boisterous, partisan crowds, and the 2023 edition has been no different. 

Kimberly Birrell produced one of the comebacks of the first round when she took down 2022 Australian Open quarter-finalist Kaia Kanepi after trailing by a set and break. 

The 24-year-old Queenslander was one of seven Aussies to advance in the first two days, with Aleksander Vukic, Max Purcell and Thanasi Kokkinakis yet to complete their first round match-ups due to rain delays.

Of the seven Aussies to advance, four were underdogs - a trend across the years at Melbourne Park.

Birrell came into her matchup with Kanepi priced at $5.60 on Unibet, but she clawed her way back from a set and break down in front of a packed Kia Arena to force a decider.

Whipping the crowd into a frenzy, Birrell rode the wave of momentum to triumph over her veteran counterpart in 36-degree heat to book a maiden second-round appearance at her home Slam.

Kanepi was given an 89.5% chance of winning the match before play, and a 99% probability of winning the match by Stats Insider’s predictive model when she was one game away from victory in the second set.

But Birrell was able to produce the best comeback of the tournament so far to upset the Estonian.

Look how much it means! ❤️ The moment Australia's Kimberly Birrell sealed her incredible upset win over the 31st seed 👏👏

🖥 #AusOpen LIVE | https://t.co/80XjQpwd6J#9WWOS #Tennis pic.twitter.com/5c22RAxDJ9

— Wide World of Sports (@wwos) January 17, 2023

Olivia Gadecki was in fine form in front of a capacity crowd to win through as a $2.50 chance, while journeyman John Millman and exciting wildcard Rinky Hijikata won through in five-set epics against their more fancied opponents.

All four Aussies were bolstered by raucous home crowds, and played the conditions superbly to outlast their opponents in the gruelling heat.

It’s a trend that has continued on from previous years, with unlikely Aussies who have received wildcards or battled through qualifiers coming up against fancied opponents and upsetting them off the back of a home crowd advantage.

Incredible 💯

Rinky Hijikata has comeback from two sets down to send it to a decider 👏#GoAussies • #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/vSTDPeit5c

— TennisAustralia (@TennisAustralia) January 16, 2023

In 2022, Vukic ($3.50) got the better of seeded opponent Lloyd Harris, and Maddison Inglis ($7.50) triumphed over US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez in straight sets, the biggest win of her career.

Likewise, in 2021, it was Alexei Popyrin ($3.00) who upset 13th seed David Goffin, and O’Connell ($4.30) burst onto the scene against Jan-Lennard Struff, before making an impressive run to the third round.

The home Slam crowds and conditions continue to be factors early in the tournament, and there may be spots to back these Aussies heading into the second round.

TRY IT NOW: Stats Insider's Men's Australian Open Simulator

Australian Open 2023: Aussie Odds for the Second Round

There are seven Aussies currently in the second round, while Kokkinakis is one set away and both Vukic and Purcell are a set down in their first-round match-ups.

After defeating Kanepi, Birrell now comes up against 17-year-old Linda Fruhvitova. We give her a 33% probability of progressing, and she’s shown an ability to utilise conditions and the crowd in her favour. The Queenslander is $2.80 to progress into a maiden third round.

Jason Kubler is $3.70 on Unibet up against 18th seed Karen Khachanov, who breezed through his first-round match-up in straight sets. Stats Insider’s predictor gives the Aussie a 25% chance of pulling off the upset on John Cain Arena.

Entering play on Monday, Rinky Hijikata was given a 47.5% chance of advancing by Stats Insider’s predictor. That was reduced to just 4% after he went down two sets to love, but the fiery Aussie clawed his way back into it, eventually prevailing in a five-set thriller.

He now faces the might of Stefanos Tsitsipas, with our predictor giving him a 7% chance of winning through to the third round.

Follow along the 2023 Australian Open at Stats Insider, with pre-match and in-play probabilities provided for every game on both the men's and women's side.