A Profitable 2018 for Stats Insider's College Football Model

The 2018 College Football season was a profitable one for the Stats Insider model and its followers, with the CFB model ending the season in the black, to the tune of nearly 5% profit on turnover (POT).

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The success of the model was further validated by the correlation between edges and outcomes. The biggest edges - identified by the green smiley face on the Value Summary and College Football match pages - made up the bulk of the model's success throughout the season.

READ: How to understand the Stats Insider betting model

Stats Insider’s results are recorded against consensus closing prices (as the toughest market to beat), and our TOTAL POINTS plays hit at a very respectable 58% with 120 wins from 207 bets, generating an incredible 15.89% POT for anyone who had jumped on all of the model's closing line value plays.

For those following just the largest edges identified by the model, a strike rate of 70% and 33.7% POT was achieved, with 14 out of 20 green smiley plays saluting.

The LINE model fell just short of profit for the season across all closing edges, hitting at a strike rate of 45%, with 76 winners from 156 plays missing the mark, contributing to a slight -2.74% POT. If you had followed just the bigger edges (indicated by the green smilies) the numbers once more were much more attractive for punters, with 14 of 21 line bets hitting for a strike rate of 67% and 27.33% POT.

Unfortunately, 2018's overall numbers were dented slightly by the H2H model, which, while hitting at a decent strike rate of nearly 54% (22 of 41), just didn't find the winners at value odds, posting a result of -29% POT. Betting largely on underdogs, high-variance should be expected with the college football model.

Any serious punter loves to finish the season ahead of the curve, and betting all edges the College Football model ended up at a healthy 4.6% POT overall, hitting value plays at a 52% strike rate. For the bigger edge (green smiley) plays only the numbers look incredibly strong, posting a final 23.8% POT from a 65% winning strike rate.

Our final closing predictions are 100% transparent, and you can always find all of our results right here, while our College Football predictions update dynamically as the markets move, so remember to check back regularly for the best value plays. 

The model runs at 30 minutes past the hour, with updated predictions being published between 30 and 40 minutes past the hour, with the final update in the hour before kickoff.

Good luck in 2019!

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