Ray Guy Award Finalists Have an Australian Flavour

Dane Roy is a Stats Insider contributor, an Australian punter in America's College Football system, and now, a Ray Guy Award finalist for the best punter in CFB. 

Melbourne's Roy, who won the halftime kicking competition at the 2015 AFL Grand Final, has received mentoring and guidance in his punting career from Ray Guy himself, will now take the stage as a finalist at the ESPN Home Depot College Football Awards Show.

The show will take place at the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday night, December 12, at 7 p.m. local time. In Melbourne, that will be 11 a.m. on Friday, December 13.

Roy will be joined by the two other Ray Guy Award finalists, fellow Australian Max Duffy of Kentucky University, and Sterling Hofrichter of Syracuse.

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According to the official Ray Guy Award website:
"The Ray Guy Award winner is selected by a voting body of Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) sports information directors, national media and former Ray Guy Award winners. Punters are evaluated on their overall statistics and contribution to the team. Particular emphasis is placed on the following statistics; net average, percentage of total punts inside the 20-yard line and percentage of punts not returned."

The basic numbers suggest that Duffy - who played 3 games of AFL football with the Fremantle Dockers - is the favourite to win: He has averaged 48.9 yards on his 42 punts landing 22 inside the 20-yard line. Roy averages 46.9 yards on 54 punts, having landed 30 inside 20-yards, while Hofrichter averages 43.7 yards on 64 punts, with 27 landing inside 20-yards.

This next point is not made to refute the notion that Duffy may win the award, but to merely provide context on the performance of any punter within the course of a football season: Pressure on a punter is increased in close games, and Roy’s Houston Cougars played in more relatively close games than either Kentucky or Syracuse did in 2019 (with one game left for all three teams this season – Houston plays Navy, Kentucky plays Louisville, and Syracuse plays Wake Forest in the three teams’ respective finales this weekend).

Syracuse’s margins (victory or defeat) this season are, in order: 24, 43, 35, 19, 38, 6, 7, 18, 31, 43, 22.

Kentucky’s margins in its 11 games, in order: 14, 21, 8, 15, 17, 4, 21, 22, 4, 24, 43.

Houston’s margins in its 11 games, in order: 18, 20, 7, 7, 21, 15, 7, 3, 15, 18, 10.

These numbers are not significant when translated into an average point total. A team could play six 40-point games and five 3-point games, creating an average margin of over 20 points per game, which would suggest that a team’s games over the course of the season have not been particularly close. Yet, that team will have played five very close games.

Another team could actually play 11 games with 20-point margins. THAT would be an indication that a team’s games haven’t been close.

So, if you look at the numbers above, it is clear that Houston has played the most close games of the three teams with Ray Guy Award finalists. Syracuse has played only two games decided by fewer than 18 points. 

This is a Houston-Kentucky, and Aussie vs Aussie battle.

Kentucky has played three games decided by fewer than 14 points and five games by fewer than 17 points. (17 points, it should be noted, represents the dividing line between a three-score margin of victory and a two-score margin, which is anywhere from nine to 16 points.)

Houston has played four games decided by fewer than eight points, which means it has played four games decided by only one score. Houston has played five games decided by fewer than 11 points and seven by fewer than 17 points.

It is a basic reality that Roy has hit more punts under close-game circumstances than Max Duffy. Yes, Duffy is the favourite here, but Dane Roy has a very strong case to make.

Congratulations to all three Ray Guy Award finalists. We’ll see them in Atlanta on December 12/13. 

Send Dane a good luck message by leaving a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page. Listen to Matt Zemek's College Football podcast 'Get Off My Pylon' with Dane Roy here.