Be Bewy Bewy Qwiet, We’re Hunting Golfers and Goal Kickers!
We’ve gotten caught up in the not-so-holy spirit this week at Club 20 as we embark on one almighty Easter hunt for glory and riches with 20 bets across the PGA and AFL tonight.
PGA - Valero Texas Open
We’re at TPC San Antonio tonight for the Texas Open, an event that is understandably diminished by the fact that Augusta is just 10 sleeps away.
The ATandT Oaks course is a relatively exposed, open Par 72 with Bermuda greens that are likely to be very slick this week.
Despite a lack of water hazards, this course is difficult at the best of times (ranked #3 on Tour for triple bogey percentage over last ten years) but players may not enjoy those best of times if the gusting 30km north easterlies currently ripping through the course persist through the morning.
It is forecast to subside slightly but the course is particularly susceptible to wind which makes picking winners even more difficult especially in gusty conditions.
Having said that, we’ve given it a red hot crack!
We sucked with our Match Play bets last week but almost hit Callum Hill (who made bloody bogey on the 72nd hole from the bloody fairway with gap wedge in hand!) to lose by one stroke last week on the Euro Tour in Kenya.
His 9.50 each-way was cold comfort, but it has kept our PGA POT at 203% for the season so far as we look to hit a big one this week so we can go completely bat-shit crazy at the Masters next week!
Lanto Griffin $5 EW @ 56-1
His Par 5 scoring is a concern as it is super important at this course, but his short irons have been fire lately, his putting is always solid and most importantly, he is going off late Thursday which looks by far the best wave (at this stage).
Off the back nine early Friday and if he gets through those first four holes unscathed then look out.
The Stats Insiders Pre-Tournament Prediction model has Griffin at 14% to hit a Top 5 so we’re getting great value for a player we already really like. Tick and tick.
Doug Ghim $5 EW @ 91-1
The only thing that the stats don’t like about Ghim this week is he has no course history on the PGA Tour at this event, but the guy went to the University of Texas in Austin so you know he knows this course better than most.
He is ranked #2 in this field for Double Avoidance which will be a key metric this week, and his short irons inside 150 yards have been amazing. Loves the Par 5’s and will have learnt plenty from his blow up at Sawgrass.
Akshay Bhatia $5 EW @ 251-1
If you saw his play at Pebble in February, you will know that this kid will break through and spike a big Top 5 one of these weeks, and this is just the field and course for him to do it.
He just needs to clean up those big blow up holes but I’ve seen enough of him this season to suggest that he is on the cusp of being a regular name on tour so trying to get in early on a guy with talent to burn who gets a great PM/AW draw at an event that could be very wind-affected.
Seung Yul Noh $5 EW @ 751-1
Oh my sweet baby jebus, is SYN could stamp his return to the Tour with a big win or even Top 5 here at a course he knows well, Club 20 punters will lose their collective shit.
It has not been pretty for Seung Yul since returning from his 2-year military service last year, with just 2 made cuts in his last 14 events (and none this season), but his putter looked to have returned at the Honda and he knows this course (4/6 made cuts including a T13 and T16).
Gets a great PM/AM draw which we like and well, it’s Easter and sometimes miracles happen!
2 Leg Multi: Gary Woodland and Doc Redman both Top 40 @ $9.25
They both withdrew from the Honda two weeks ago with Covid and weren’t playing that great prior, but talent wise they are both in the top 15 players in this field so we’re taking a little Covid bounce-back multi.
AFL – Magpies v Lions
This game is going to be a cracker and we’ve gone hard at it after staying pretty quiet for the first two rounds of the season.
With youngster Connor Ballenden in the ruck for the Lions, the midfield battle lines are clearly drawn with all onballers likely looking at Grundy’s hands when the ball goes up.
Expect a fierce contest around the footy then fast, free-flowing ball movement out of the stoppage – right up until the final inside 50 mark where I think the chain of possession will break down a lot tonight.
Adams coming back in for Brisbane gives the Lions good flexibility matchup wise whilst at the other end the Pies backmen look just as likely to repel the Lions key forwards.
I can see a lot of goals being kicked tonight, but I am just not seeing any value in the big boys who don’t have great matchups - that includes Jordan De Goey who is short odds coming off a big game and likely to get young Starcevich for company.
What this means, we hope, is there is some value in taking some smaller leading/crumbing forwards. That’s the plan anyway!
Goal Scorer Bets (13)
Charlie Cameron 4 ($9), 5 ($30) and 6 ($95) Goals
Lincoln McCarthy 3 ($8.25), 4 ($29) and 5 ($131) Goals
Tom Berry 2 ($5.75) and 3 ($26.25) Goals
Josh Thomas 3 ($8.25), 4 ($30) and 5 Goals ($121) Goals
Scott Pendlebury 2 ($9.75) and 3 ($54) Goals
Goal Scorers Multi Bets (2)
Cameron 3 Goals, Pendlebury 1 Goal @ 9.50
Cameron 3 Goals, Thomas 2 Goals, Pendlebury 1 Goal @ 32.25
Ok so there’s our 20 for Club 20 tonight – we will be attacking the AFL all long-weekend so if you like something or just want to follow along come and join us on Twitter @Club20.
Lastly make sure you are including the Stats Insider AFL Match Pages in your pre-punting or tipping routine (a must if you’re fair dinkum) and if you haven’t already, go and check out the Golf Tournament Futures pages as we countdown the sleeps until Augusta next week!
Oh and also, obviously, better safe than sorry so stock the bar fridge this arv – no one wants to be that person who thought they had enough to get through but then gets overly excited on Thursday and then has to watch sport on Good Friday sober. Don’t be that person!