Club 20 Northern Trust Bets: “He Should Absolutely Love This Course”
Short, sharp betting card for what is the strongest field of the PGA season, the Northern Trust at Liberty National GC in Jersey City.
Strongest field and also, the hardest/worst week to bet on Golf.
It is not that this Par 71 (3 Par 5’s) 7,410 yard course is especially brutal (it is a tough but fair test), what makes this week especially tough is there are so many studs in the market, the strength of field is so good, that there is just no point looking too far down the betting board for a guy who could play out of his skin and finish T8 behind seven of the world's top 10.
Despite it being a good week to bet less, I’m in f**king lockdown and I cannot play golf as the course is about 20km from my house, so ill be damned if I am going to not bet golf as well, especially coming off a few great weeks.
A semblance of a betting strategy begins to form.
Given the field and the lack of extra each-way placings, I just don’t see the value in betting the Outright Market at all, instead I think the play is to pepper the First Round Leaderboard which is where we can take some studs at inflated prices whilst also looking a bit further down because all of these guys in this field are capable of producing one great round.
PGA – The Northern Trust
The first leg of the FexEx Cup, Liberty National is a ball strikers paradise. Every single shot here carries a good amount of risk reward, but it is especially the case off the tee on the Par 4’s where water or bunkers force layups or extreme risk.
The Par 5’s are the opposite, with a little more leeway off the tee but very tricky, hazard-ridden approach shots with little room to bail out free of risk.
124 players Top 65 players make the cut
Having looked at the flyover and yardages, I count ten (10) approach shots that players will have with wedge or gap wedge in hand here. So that 100-135 yard proximity range is the one to target.
We want guys who are striping their irons, can hit a good straight drive / find a fairway, once on the greens it really is in the laps of the golf gods but we are at least able to nail down who we think will get there the best.
Taking all five of these guys each-way (1/4 T5) for First Round Leader
Collin Morikawa @ 31
Rory McIlroy @ 34
Adam Scott @ 51
Cameron Tringale @ 81
Max Homa @ 101
Feal these guys are all very good chances to get good looks at bird on the three Par 5’s and the driveable Par 4 16th with their tee to green games.
Love Homa and Tringale’s wedge proximity numbers whilst Rory and Scott have both clicked into fourth gear.
Collin is Collin and should LOVE this course.
Also cant resist a little 4-leg 3-ball multi for tonight @ 35.28
If you are tossing up between two golfers in your DFS teams tonight, check out the Stats Insider Player Matchup Tool here.
Have a great weekend - enjoy!
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