Club 20 NRL Tipping Round 5: ‘The Donkeys have more chance of winning lotto’

If you like a bet on the NRL then this is your week with the Stats Insider model spying six (6!) ‘green smiley’ plays across Round 5.

We’re hot on the heels of perfection after an injury to Mitchell Pearce and subsequent Dragons victory denied the Stats Insider NRL model our first clean sweep of the season. 

Club 20 tipsters had to settle for 7/8 in Round 4. 

The model also hit the Storm/Broncos Overs bet but ran into a Penrith team that flogged the Sea Eagles well past their 20pt line so it was a 1/2 week for the bets, bringing the tipping and betting tallies to 24/30 tipsand 7/10 bets so far in 2021. 

Not. Too. Shabby.

Our special guest tipster this week was meant to be the Australian Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, but he called this morning from Canberra to postpone, mumbling something about traffic jams in Rome.

Having no Plan B, I quickly promised five schooners to Club 20 barfly and self-proclaimed NRL expert Ronny ‘Chainsaw’ Foster if he would sit down with me and dribble shit about NRL for 20 minutes and luckily, he was just sober enough to step up and help out. 

What could go wrong!

RELATED: Check out all of Stats Insider's NRL Season projections

DISCLAIMER: All bets/picks mentioned are accurate as of 7th April at 1:00pm. The model predictions are dynamic and will update up until the match.

Rabbitohs v Broncos

Chainsaw: Those Broncos aren’t worth a lick of spit, their defence is about as threatening as John Howards yorker and now young Carrigan is out they have more chance of winning lotto. The Bunnies mate, they will break records. 

Model: Rabbitohs

Green Smiley Watch: The model likes 7% edge in the Totals market for the Overs (43.5pts). 

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Warriors v Sea Eagles

Chainsaw: Until Tommy Treboya, Trebblev, until Tommy Turbovich comes back those Eagles will be absolutely rooted. That Dylan Walker is tits on a bull at the back, they hurt my eyes watching them. Warriors for me, do it easy. 

Model: Warriors  

Green Smiley Watch: The model continues to like the Sea Eagles, identifying an 8% edge for them in the Line Market (+7.5).

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Panthers v Raiders

Chainsaw: Now this will be worth watching. Don’t write off the Faders, I watched Penny last week and young Crichton wouldn’t know shit from shoe polish at the back there, completely out of his depth and would have been found out against a decent team, which Canberra is. Upset brewing here I reckon! 

Model: Panthers

Green Smiley Watch: Two bets in this game with the model spying value in the Totals (Overs (37.5)) and Line (Raiders +7.5) markets.

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Titans v Knights

Chainsaw: Knights are pushing it uphill without Pearce there, he went off and they got done by the Dragons, who are shit. Says it all. Titans have a few concerns though as well. It’s a real tough one now I think about it. Titans just but it’s a guess.

Model: Titans

Green Smiley Watch: The Green Smiley faces continue with the Knights fancied by the model to hold this 8.5pt Line (7% edge).

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Bulldogs v Storm

Chainsaw: Geez these Bulldogs couldn’t organise a pissup in a brewery could they? Absolutely useless. And now that young Harry Grant named on the bench for Storm too, Melbourne will flog them I reckon. 

Model: Storm

Green Smiley Watch: 

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Roosters v Sharks

Chainsaw: Look I have no real stats to back this up but I reckon the Sharkies will win this one. Its just a feeling. Plus I hate the Rootas, should be all kicked out the cheats. 

Model: Roosters

Green Smiley Watch: 

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Tigers v Cowboys

Chainsaw: If the Cows beat Balmain here I won’t drink for a week. Well, a few days. Look whatever the period of time, it doesn’t matter as it won’t happen, That Cowboys team is as soft as custard and the Tiges took it up to Parra Monday. Tigers

Model: Tigers

Green Smiley Watch: Some value in the Cowboys to hold an +8.5pt line spotted by the model here. 

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Eels v Dragons

Chainsaw: Eels by the length of the Flemington straight. They will go through Turnstiles Tariq like a hot knife through butter all game.  Carn the mighty Eels!

Model: Eels

Green Smiley Watch: 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_05_PAR_SGI #}

Thanks to Chainsaw for helping us out of a bind, enjoy your schooners mate.  

For those less inclined to listen to the ramblings of a half cut, fully bias, idiot ex-footy player, be sure to make the Stats insider NRL Match Pages part of your pre-tipping and pre-punting routine. 

The model runs every game 10,000 times and is constantly updating so don’t waste time listening to ‘experts’, harness the data and get amongst the amazing results so far this NRL season. 

Trust the data people and enjoy the footy!

Come join the Twitter party @Club20 for our most up-to-date bets


Cruelly denied sporting glory due to recurring shin splint complaints and an aversion to warm-up laps, Hedge now spends his days golfing, fishing the leaves out of the Club 20 pools and identifying value plays in PGA, AFL, AFLW and T20. All you really need to know about him is he's more than comfortable taking 3I off the tee on a Par 5, and more than capable of pulling driver off the deck second shot.

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