Premier League Monthly Movement: February

While the FA Cup quarter-finalists for 2018/19 are sorted out over the weekend, it’s a great time to step back and take another look at the Stats Insider Premier League Futures, which uses a countless number of data points like the match pages to simulate the season 10,000 times and hopefully find some value in futures betting markets. 

Traditionally done at the beginning of each month, our Premier League ‘Monthly Movement’ segment was pushed back until this Cup weekend because of some hectic midweek rounds involving key matches for Liverpool and Manchester City. Now we’ve got the whole week to snap up any futures overs identified by the model! 

So what have we got? 

Let’s go through a club-by-club summary:

MANCHESTER CITY (21-2-4, +54)

As seen in the graphic further below from 'The Edge' on the TAB website/app, the Stats Insider model disagrees with the bookmakers, who have Manchester City as firm favourites to take out the title now. Six of Manchester City’s remaining eleven matches are away from home, where they have dropped points in three of their last six matches (including losses at Leicester and Newcastle). 

Sergio Aguero continues to be key to City’s chances of a treble or even an historic quadruple, after two hat-tricks in two weeks, but they can occasionally be defensively vulnerable. On paper, they shouldn’t be dropping many more points: just four of their remaining opponents are in the top half of the table going into this round, and only one of those four - Manchester United - will be met away from home.

If anything will see them through to being back-to-back champions, it’ll be the recent culture and experience of winning: Manchester City’s manager and playing squad have 67 league titles between them, compared with “just” 24 between Liverpool's Jurgen Klopp and his troops. 

Pep Guardiola’s squad are winning 45.5% of Stats Insider's season simulations, narrowly behind their title challengers, which makes the $1.70 on offer - in our opinion - horrific unders.

LIVERPOOL (20-5-1, +44)

Stats Insider league favouritism lies with the Reds, who, for all the talk of them having “let it slip” once again, remain level with Manchester City with a game in hand and have just as easy a run home, if not easier!

After dropping points against Leicester and West Ham, their fans could be forgiven for feeling a deflating combination of déjà vu and pessimism. However, one important stat remains: Liverpool are just the fifth side in the Premier League era to have collected 62 points after 25 games - and all four others them won the title! 

Their unbeaten home record should see them through in home games against Tottenham and Chelsea, while four of their six remaining away trips are against clubs in the bottom five (going into this round), and while clubs should beware an opposition fighting for survival at home, sides like Newcastle and Southampton have been exceptionally bad at home this season. 

TOTTENHAM (20-0-6, +29)

Our value bet for the title at $41's during the pre-season doesn’t look like coming to fruition, with Tottenham winning just 5.3% of Championship simulations by the EPL model (cue the “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” meme). 

Missing Harry Kane hasn’t yet done their title chances any harm, with four consecutive wins since he went down at Wembley against Manchester United. Even if you exclude his hat-trick against Tranmere, Fernando Llorente is scoring or assisting goals at a faster rate than Kane (every 77.5 minutes compared with every 98.6 for Kane) in 2018/19 after a very sluggish 2017/18. Add Korean star, Son, who has scored in every match since returning from the Asian Cup, and Spurs are more than capable of “putting the pressure on” throughout the remaining third of the season. 

Their one remaining hope is that, since the return to the 38-game season, six title winners have claimed top spot despite accruing six losses. All remaining six home games look very winnable, but with trips to Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City still on the schedule, it would require a miracle for Spurs to collect enough points to gain, and remain, in front of their rivals by the end of the season.

The good news for those amongst us with 'lillywhite blood' is that they will be returning to Champions League football in 90.1% of simulations, which makes the $1.10 on offer for a Top 4 spot, a fair price. Perhaps a safe 10% boost to any multis you have in mind (though I’d never tip anything to the readers at such a price…)!

MANCHESTER UNITED (15-6-5, +17)

What of the battle for fourth? These are some numbers that I’m finding particularly fascinating, with the model again disagreeing with the bookies and the form lines in favour of Chelsea.

The Red Devils are on a nine-game Premier League unbeaten run since the sacking of Jose Mourinho, with no club collecting as many points in the last six, eight or even ten league matches. According to Opta, Solksjaer has transformed United from the worst counter-attacking team in the Premiership into the best, with their “fast breaks” average shooting up to 1.13 per game since Dec 19, from 0.18 prior to that date. 

At this stage, Solskjaer’s troops are securing Champions League football in 41.4% of the model’s 10,000 simulations, which in our opinions makes the $2.00 price of poor value, despite the indisputably rock solid form heading into the business end of the season. 

ARSENAL (15-5-6, +16)

Arsenal have lost their grip on the coveted fourth place, with victory at Huddersfield snapping a six-game winless streak on the road, with the likes of Watford and Wolves having compiled better records in their last ten matches. Furthermore, they have yet to win away against any side in the upper half going into this round (D1 L4) with four other top-ten opponents still to visit.

It gets worse: the Gunners are the only Premier League side to have not kept a single clean sheet on the road this season, shipping fewer away goals than only Bournemouth and Fulham, even conceding to one of the weakest attacks the English top flight has ever seen in Huddersfield (who, remember, had just five goals in 13 matches at home - the equal-fewest in first division history). 

$4.00 looks a fair price for an out of form side who need to turn around some poor away defensive form to remain any chance of keeping up with United and Chelsea. They’re finishing top four in just 25% of Stats Insider's simulations, and it would take some unbridled optimism to take that with great confidence. 

CHELSEA (15-5-6, +16)

Curiously, the value with the Futures model lies in a team who just copped their biggest drubbing in any competition in nearly 28 years! 

Fortunately, their run home is full of plenty of potential points: three of their six remaining away trips are against bottom-half clubs (whom they have a 6-0-1 away record against), while just one of their remaining home games are against another “big six” club. A trip to United in late April could potentially be an early Champions League qualifying match!

The model has Chelsea pinching fourth spot in 48.1% of simulations - slightly more than Manchester United, but at the juicier price of $2.25. 

WOLVES (11-6-9, +1)
WATFORD (10-7-9, 0)
EVERTON (9-6-12, -3)
WEST HAM (9-6-11, -7)
BOURNEMOUTH (10-3-13, -10)
LEICESTER CITY (9-5-12, -3)
CRYSTAL PALACE (7-6-13, -7)
BRIGHTON (7-6-13, -11)

It’ll be either relieving or disappointing news for fans of the eight aforementioned clubs, depending on your pre-season expectations: these eight teams from Wolverhampton to Brighton are considered less than a 5% chance of either top four or relegation and are merely making up the numbers for the remaining third of the season. 

BURNLEY (7-6-13, -18)

Interesting to see that, despite being level with Crystal Palace and Brighton, Burnley are a far greater chance of relegation according to the model, and yet there is value in backing it! In fact, they remain Stats Insider's fourth most likely to drop, with 27.4% of simulations seeing them relegated to the Championship. The bookies agree, with our good friends at the TAB offering $4.00 for them to fall below Cardiff. If 27% is a true probability, then $4's is an excellent price to nibble at. 

A win at Brighton could be the one that saves their season - they have condemned Southampton to the bottom three for at least a fortnight - with the Saints having to go to Arsenal this weekend. 

Inferior goal difference is a big problem for Burnley - they are worse off than all but three clubs in that regard - but no relegation battle has come down to goal difference since Fulham and Reading were split by just three goals in 2007/08.

Burnley still have five matches against “big six” clubs (three at home, two away) as well as a trip to Everton and just two against other teams currently in the bottom six going into this round. It’s a difficult prospect, and if they fail to collect enough points in the next month against the likes of Newcastle and Crystal Palace, you may not be able to get $4.00 during the next international window!

NEWCASTLE (6-7-13, -12)

No value to be found here. It would sure be a sad sight to see Newcastle go down again, but fortunately for the Toon Squad the model simulates this happening in just 10.1% of total simulations, so we’d be wanting at least $9 (even with bookmaker margins taken into account). 

Rafa Benitez’s squad have enjoyed a five-day training camp out of the spotlight and away from the off-field distractions in Spain, including a 1-1 scratch match with CSKA Moscow, which, by all reports, has helped him integrate new signings Antonio Barrecaand Miguel Almiron into the matchday squad.

As well as an advantageous goal difference, they will likely enjoy the easiest run home of all relegation contenders: just three games against the top half (Liverpool and Everton at home, Arsenal away), and four matches against teams currently in the bottom four going into this round, with three of them at home (Burnley / Southampton / Huddersfield).

CARDIFF (7-4-15, -23)

A tragic return to the Premier League for Cardiff will likely result in heartbreak and you’ve got the model’s blessing to take the $1.80 on offer for the Welsh club to drop if you don’t fancy their chances of a miracle recovery. 

Incredibly, the Bluebirds have won five of their last nine at home but are running out of winnable home matches quickly: the well-travelling Liverpool, Chelsea, Watford and West Ham are still to come to Wales, while they also have to travel to Manchester twice and to the overperforming Wolves. 

The off-field financial and emotional saga with Nantes is about to get really ugly, really quickly; hopefully not an on-field distraction for the players, but certainly not something needed during a fierce relegation battle. They are forecast to drop back to the Championship in 66% of simulations, so the $1.80 with bookmakers is well worth taking. 

SOUTHAMPTON (5-9-12, -16)

Southampton just keep finding new ways to bottle matches! They have dropped nine points in the last ten minutes of their league matches this season - more than any other club, and had things gone their way, they’d be level with Everton, West Ham and Bournemouth and well out of relegation contention.

Just the one clean sheet under Hasenhuttl would be one of their gravest concerns right now, particularly as they have also scored in nine of their last ten but just haven’t been able to convert those goals into points.

Four of their remaining 12 matches are against the “big six” as well as a home game against overachievers Wolves, which limits their opportunities for scrambling to safety. Fortunately there are still some very winnable matches sprinkled in amongst them: Fulham and Huddersfield at home, and trips to Newcastle, Brighton and West Ham are all great opportunities for vital points.

Have faith if you’re a Saints fan: they’re surviving the drop in over 92% of simulations, though I wonder if that accounts for a potentially jam-packed schedule coming up in mid-March: Watford’s latest FA Cup victory potentially means three weeks without a Premier League match for the Saints. Given that they are yet to win after returning from a Cup/ or International window weekend (D3 L1) this could spell some trouble. We’d want much more than the $5.50 on offer to find out, though. 

FULHAM (4-5-17, -33)

Claudio Ranieri has copped chants of “you don’t know what you’re doing” from Cottagers fans as Fulham sink deeper and deeper into relegation trouble under his stewardship. Fortunately, he’s got a few opportunities across the next month to eat away at the eight-point gap between their current 17-point tally and safety. 

With Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool still to visit Craven Cottage, it’s crucial that they pull off a couple of upset victories elsewhere in the next ten weeks to ensure that they can make the most of an easier final few weeks which include fellow battlers Cardiff and Newcastle coming to town. 

The model has Fulham dropping in 83.3% of simulations, which makes the $1.08 price horrendous value and not worth taking under any circumstance. 

HUDDERSFIELD (2-5-19, -34)

Huddersfield being relegated is now such a foregone conclusion that you can’t even back it anymore! Aaron Mooy’s Terriers are dropping in 95.4% simulations and unfortunately there’s nothing to suggest they can pull off a miracle. 

As mentioned earlier, they have the worst record for goals scored at home - only Arsenal over a century ago - in 1912/13 - had just five home goals to their name after 13 matches, and no side has ever failed to reach double figures for home goals in a full first division season (even when they were 42 games long!) 

Unfortunately, they’ve also got some tough home games to come (including Manchester United, Wolves and Watford) as well as trips to Liverpool and Tottenham. Yikes. 

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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