La Liga Week 9: Betting Preview
Last updated: Oct 19, 2018, 5:50AM | Published: Oct 16, 2018, 3:37AM.jpg?w=750)
Would you believe there's value in backing Barcelona this week?! Incredible! Check out our preview of the upcoming La Liga round as we uncover some juicy edges across the weekend.
READ OUR ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE PREVIEW
THE GAME: Valencia v Leganes
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 1:15am EDT
THE PLAY: Leganes double chance
Leganes are yet to find a point away from home but are in too good form to ignore and we’re willing to take on a Valencia side who have been nothing short of underwhelming at home this season. Valencia have failed to win at home in 18/19, being held to four low-scoring draws including by Celta Vigo and by Real Betis. At ~1.45 in early markets they are simply too short and are at -5% according to the model.
Leganes have enjoyed back-to-back home wins including that famous Barcelona win and three of their four away losses have been one goal margins, so they haven’t been far away. +4% for Leganes and+1% for the draw. Use that information as you desire: back Leganes outright, play the double chances / draw no bets, or simply take the warning that Valencia are a poor price.
THE GAME: Villarreal v Atletico Madrid
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 3:30am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 total goals / Both to Score - YES
The value game of the week with the early markets grossly underrating the opportunities for goals here. Sure, the stats don’t point in the direction of the overs: Villarreal are scoring 0.25 goals per match at home and conceding one, while Atletico are scoring and conceding 0.75 per game on the road.
But we know what they are capable of: three of the last six games involving either side have gone overs, as have all four Europa/Champions League games involving Villarreal and Atletico. The model has found some great value in both plays here and they’re both worth backing at the price.
THE GAME: Barcelona v Sevilla
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 5:45am EDT
THE PLAY: Barcelona to win
A mouth-watering top of the table clash between the surprise packers Sevilla and the better of the two big fish. It’s not often we have Barcelona as good value so it’s worth taking it when it’s there. After a winless run of four, there is no more time for Barcelona to mess about: their season will be defined by their next four weeks.
They’ve won five of their last six against Sevilla and the model identifies them as a good price to extend that good run. Sevilla have been super exciting, scoring more goals than anyone bar PSG in the five major European leagues. But they have faced just one top-ten side away – Real Betis – and lost.
THE GAME: Eibar v Athletic Bilbao
WHEN: Mon 22 Oct, 1:15am EDT
THE PLAY: Both to Score - YES
A slight edge in favour of Athletic Bilbao in the early simulations but they have won just one of their last 12 on the road, and with an opponent like Eibar who are quite comfortable within their own stadium, it’s hard to take. Instead, the attention turns to the +3% available for the popular ‘both teams to score’ market.
Eibar have scored in all four home games this year and conceded in all but one (against Leganes), and I fancy them to do it again against a Bilbao outfit whose last four league games (as well as all of their away matches) have seen both sides score.
THE GAME: Huesca v Espanyol
WHEN: Mon 22 Oct, 3:30am EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 total goals / Both to Score - YES
Another high-value game according to the model and while two orange smileys present themselves, I’m quite keen on the both teams to score market. Huesca have failed to win since the opening round but have performed a lot more comfortably at home. They have failed to keep a single clean sheet this season – anywhere – while Espanyol have scored in seven of their eight games while failing to keep a clean sheet on the road themselves.
