Euro 2020: Your Team's Chances Of Winning the Championship
“Good things come to those who wait”. If this proverb holds true, fans around the world are in for a treat.
Yes, it’s finally happening. Euro 2020 is here....... in 2021!
Considering the manner in which the world's been tipped on its head since the start of the 2020, and all the associated trauma, delaying the Euros by 12 months probably needs to take a position in the grievance queue.
Having said that, let’s bring some sense of normalcy by looking at the main contenders at this grand sporting event, along with assessing the Stats Insider projections for the tournament.
Mbappe. Griezmann. Pogba. Kante. Benzema, Lloris..... the list goes on, and perhaps for at least another ten more big names where 'Les Blues' are concerned.
There’s a reason this team are the reigning world champions. In fact, France are unbeaten in their last 17 competitive games, and have lost just one of their 11 overall games since last September, with their one blemish coming courtesy of a shock friendly loss to Finland.
Key Player: Kylian Mbappé
The 22-year old has scored 17 goals for France, the most of any Frenchman in history before turning 24.
Probability of winning: 14.5%
Has there been a tournament in the last two decades when England weren’t among the contenders? This year will be no different. The Three Lions come into the Euros in good form having averaged two goals a game in their last 11hit-outs, scoring 22 goals and conceding just 5. Their only losses since last September have come against Belgium and Denmark.
Key Player: Harry Kane.
“You’re a wizard, Harry”. Okay, maybe not. But Harry Kane finished the 2020/21 Premier League season as the leading goal scorer (23) as well as proving the most assists in the EPL (14) and all in a season where Tottenham failed to even make the top-6.
Probability of winning: 14.4%
10 wins out of 10. 40 goals scored, 3 goals conceded. Belgium barely broke a sweat during the qualification phase of the Euros. At these Euros Belgium will do what Belgium have pretty much done for the last 7 years. They'll play the same 3-4-3 system, they'll win enough games to top their group and seamlessly advance to the round of 16. The knockouts, however, are where their ageing defence of Toby Alderweireld (32), Jan Vertonghen (34) and Thomas Vermaelen (35) may be tested, and, dare we say, exposed.
Key Player: Alex Witsel
In a squad filled with attacking options like Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard, it's in fact Alex Witsel who could be the difference maker, with the recently minted German Cup winner playing such a vital role, contributing in attack while shielding that ageing defence.
Probability of winning: 14.1%
Spain is the exact opposite of Belgium as nobody knows what to expect from them. Former captain Sergio Ramos has been left out of the Spanish squad entering a major tournament for the first time since Euro 2004. In fact, it's the first time in history that no Real Madrid player has been selected for 'La Rioja'. Between the sticks, it's expected David De Gea will make way for Brighton & Hove Albion’s uncapped Robert Sánchez, while Manchester City's Aymeric Laporte has recently switched nationalities from French to Spanish, and is in the running to take up a position right in the middle of the Spanish defence.
Key Player: Nobody knows. What Spain achieves in these Euros will depend on manager Luis Enrique who holds all the cards within a squad, which for now, has far more questions than answers.
Probability of winning: 12.6%
The 'Selecao' ended their long wait for a major international title, hoisting the 2016 European Championship in Paris. Fernando Santos’ men followed that breakthrough by winning the inaugural Uefa Nations League in 2019. Any side led by Cristiano Ronaldo is always a contender, and when you add in the sheer quality of Bruno Fernandes, Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva and Joao Felix, Portugal are a serious chance to be back-to-back champs.
Key Player: Cristiano Ronaldo.
That’s all. It’s Ronaldo. He's their key player.
Win Probability: 9.4%
Roberto Mancini took over as manager shortly after the Italian team failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. In short time he's produced the highest win-rate in Italian managerial history, taking the chocolates in 70% of his matches. Under Mancini, the Italians have reverted to the 'defence wins matches' mantra, having not conceded a single goal in six games between November 2020 and March 2021. But all this is pre-Euros, the jury will be out on Mancini's true level of genius until he can translate that form to success on the big stage.
Key Player: Giorgio Chiellini
The 36-year old Italian captain will be appearing at his 4th Euros (equalling Azzurri legends Gianluigi Buffon and Alessandro Del Piero), and will play a crucial role too, adding vital experience to a squad where no less than 18of its 26 players have never featured at either a Euro Championship or World Cup.
Win probability: 8.2%
In his last tournament as German boss, Joachim Low would be expected to play the same attacking style of football which saw them score a massive 30 goals, and which won them 7 of their 8 qualification games. Even though the team is ’‘transitioning’, their biggest concern is the ‘Group of Death’ which plays host to two of the tournament favourites - France and Portugal.
Key Player: Serge Gnabry
With 15 goals in 20 caps, Gnabry’s record for Germany has been astounding so far. In what could be a fluid front 3, Gnabry’s efficiency in both the wide and central positions could cause uncertainty in some defences. He's a menace.
Win Probability: 7.8%
With a group that includes Euro debutants North Macedonia and a young Ukraine team, the Dutch have the highest probability (93.6%) among all teams in the tournament to qualify for the next round. New manager Frank de Boer’s reign started with the team going winless in their first four games, while the ship has still yet to be settled, with the Netherlands only winning 3 of their last 8 hit-outs. To make matters worse, Virgil Van Djik won't be marshalling the 'Oranje' defence, an absence which could prove catastrophic in their bigger assignments.
Key Player: Frankie de Jong
The Barcelona star will be the connecting link between the Dutch defence and attack. If the 24-year old is able to assert his dominance in midfield, then the Netherlands should be able to take up a position in the Round of 16 without too much trouble.
Win probability: 7.4%
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