This image is a derivative of 2013 Denver Nuggets 2 by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)

It all threatened to get a little stale for the Denver Nuggets last season. After playing well enough throughout the regular season to finish 3rd in the Western Conference, an all too familiar first-round playoff exit looked likely. A loss at that point of the season brings back awful memories considering they suffered 9  first-round exits in 10 seasons between 2003 and 2013. 

The Utah Jazz carried a 3-1 series lead into Game 5. That empty first-round feeling filled the open pit within the stomach of the Nuggets faithful. But a 117-107 win in Game 5 and 119-107 win in Game 6 suddenly gave the Nuggets a chance to achieve what most considered almost impossible two games earlier. Game 7 can only be described as a slugfest as the Nuggets clawed their way to an 80-78 win, pulling off an incredible series win from 3-1 down. 

Remarkably, and this time against an LA Clippers team considered a championship favourite, the Nuggets pulled it off again in the Western Conference semifinals. It's one of the great upsets in NBA history. Down 3-1 going into Game 5, the Nuggets rattled off back-to-back wins before thrashing the Clippers 104-89 in Game 7. The series is remembered for the Clippers capitulation. Everybody outside (and many within) Los Angeles enjoyed seeing a group that had talked the talk before walking the walk end the season with their tongues tied and tails between their legs. 

But now that the celebrations of the Clippers demise have ended, and the tweets have been sent, the importance of that series win, from a Nuggets perspective, can be appreciated. While they lost to the eventual NBA Champion Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, two hard-fought series and a deep playoff run in trying conditions have set the franchise up to go further in 2020-21.

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It's no longer safe to assume the Nuggets will run through the regular season before laying an egg in the playoffs. They know how to win a seven-game series better than most other teams coming into the season. They're battle hardened and experienced. Should a few pieces of the puzzle line up throughout the upcoming campaign, that elusive first championship banner may finally hang inside what's now known as Ball Arena.

It's not all blind optimism and assumed improvement, though. 

While getting to the Western Conference is an impressive achievement and can be circled as a reason why the Nuggets can go one step further in 2020-21, it's worth remembering that they were one Mike Conley rimmed out three-point shot from another first-round exit.

The Nuggets weren't perfect. It's on the defensive end, in particular, that the coaching staff will have spent most of their time throughout the offseason picking out and planning to plug holes. It's mentioned in every championship conversation: Only two of the last 21 NBA champions (2002 Lakers & 2018 Warriors) lifted the Larry O'Brien Trophy with a defence ranked outside the Top 10.

The Nuggets finished last season at 16th in defensive rating (110.4). While their 112.6 offensive rating won them games and ranked 5th in the league, their defensive rating dragged their net rating down to 2.2 - just 0.1 ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those defensive issues are one thing. A motivated LA Clippers, healthy Golden State Warriors, somehow even better Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks all have their sights set on the same goal in the West.

While the Nuggets need to make improvements to their team defence, one player acts as the perfect symbol of where the team is at heading into the season, and where they need to be if they're to celebrate a championship by the end of it.

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The third guy - Michael Porter Jr.

From the outside, it's a big ask for a guy that missed his rookie season with a back injury and averaged just 9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 0.8 assists in 55 games last season to then become a key piece in a 2020-21 championship puzzle. But that's what we're doing with Michael Porter Jr.

The 22-year-old has been earmarked as Denver's third guy behind Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. Unless you're Anthony Davis and LeBron James, you need that bonafide third guy - the sort that could be number one or two on an average team - to win a championship these days. The Toronto Raptors had their guy to win it in 2018-19; the Golden State Warriors had three or four reliable players while winning four championships between 2014-15 and 2017-18. A freakish LeBron James was enough for the Cleveland Cavaliers to win it in 2016-17, but not before he needed Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen to win two titles with the Miami Heat three years earlier. 

Murray and Jokic make for an excellent one-two punch, but an elevated Porter Jr. is necessary for the Nuggets to go at least one step further than they did last season. Porter Jr. may have provided a glimpse of what is to come throughout his 2020 bubble experience. 

Porter Jr. was given 33.3 minutes per game to strut his stuff across eight regular-season games in the bubble before the playoffs. He impressed throughout with 37 points on 12-16 shooting against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a particular highlight. With his minutes tapering off for the playoffs, Porter Jr. still provided the Nuggets with some steady outside shooting to connect on 38.2% of his 4.7 attempts from beyond the arc per game. 

Looking ahead to the 2020-21 season, numbers in between his bubble outburst and production in the playoffs must be the goal. If we're assuming an improvement from Murray and the continued growth toward superstardom for Jokic, Porter Jr. contributing 17-18 points, and roughly seven rebounds per game, rounds out the offence nicely. 

It's on the defensive end that could see Porter Jr's minutes limited and therefore, his development, stunted. We recently highlighted just how awful Trae Young fared in Defensive RPM last season(spoiler: he ranked last out of 520 players). Porter Jr. didn't do much better in 2019-20 with his -3.13 DRPM putting him just 14 spots above Young at 506th. For all of the positive impact Porter Jr. had on the offensive end (113.0 Off Rtg), his 112.4 defensive rating generated just a 0.7 net rating. Now that Jerami Grantand Torey Craig have left the Nuggets, a significant hole has opened up in their wing defence. Will Barton is likely to fill it best for the season opener. However, Denver's championship chances hinge on Porter Jr. closing the gap between his offence and defence - just like the Nuggets as a team - to be a regular starter and genuine third option beside Murray and Jokic. 

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2020-21 Crystal Ball

Jamal Murray announced himself as a genuine star last season. His combination with Nikola Jokic took the Nuggets to another level, while they're now well and truly recognised as one of the most dangerous offensive duos in the league. They're two big pieces to this championship puzzle, but we know already that they fit together nice and snug. It's the rest that needs to measure up if this first championship is to become a reality.

The departure of Jerami Grant is a cause for concern. His role often involved guarding the opposition's best offensive player, and there is no clear replacement for the 26-year-old. Grant is an elite wing defender and the Nuggets - right now - are a worse defensive team than they were to finish last season. Paul Millsap is another year older and starts this season as a 35-year-old looking every bit 35-years old. Undersized, Millsap may struggle on the defensive side of the ball. 

Will Barton's return from injury begins to paint a brighter picture, but how he fits in alongside the improving Michael Porter Jr. remains to be seen. Barton has made his expectations clear already: he's a starter in this league. The rotation of these two will be interesting to monitor early on.

Porter Jr, Jokic and Murray struggled in their limited minutes together last season. The trio scored 114.7 points per 100 possessions throughout the 151 minutes they shared the court - good. But allowed the opposition to score 113.2 points per 100 possessions - bad. Given how well these three play when on the court together will determine how close the Nuggets get to the Larry O'Brien Trophy over the next few years, it's crucial that they find a way to work better as a unit. 

In waving Grant, Craig, Troy Daniels and Mason Plumlee goodbye the Nuggets have lost some of their encouraging depth. Monte Morris extending his time at the franchise is a positive and it's hoped JaMychal Green goes some way to filling the Grant/Craig void. As for the rest - draftees Zeke Nnaji and R.J. Hampton, centre Isaiah Hartenstein, and Argentine point guard Facundo Campazzo - it's all a little bit unknown. 

The Nuggets are in a precarious position coming into this truncated season. There is every chance this group plays better in 2020-21 than in 2019-20, but don't reach the same heights. On the flip side, few would be shocked to see them win the whole thing.

It's that kind of season and Denver is that kind of team.

Strap yourselves in.

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