Denver Nuggets are elite but can they change their awful playoff record?

This image is a derivative of 2013 Denver Nuggets 2 by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)

*Stats as on 8th January, 2020*

Believe it or not, the Denver Nuggets' 25-11 record ranks 5th in NBA and 2nd in the Western Conference.

Seriously.

At the time of writing, the Nuggets are 2nd in a loaded West.

*Stats as on 8th January, 2020*

While the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Rockets and Mavericks are regularly talked about as the best teams in the NBA and potential champions, the Nuggets have slipped through the back door, positioned themselves firmly in the hunt for the 1st seed, and still have room to improve.

They've navigated injuries and poor patches in form to produce exceptional numbers throughout the first three months of the season. Denver's offence sits inside the top ten in the NBA while their defence is flirting with doing the same at 12th.

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What makes this opening third of the season so impressive for the Nuggets is they've managed to do it while Nikola Jokic plays below his best. He was only a league-average player across the first month of the season.

The Nuggets managed to make-do, though.

Getting through to the end of December with a 23-11 record, the Nuggets started this season similar to the last in which they finished with 54 wins and the 2nd seed. Now the Serbian is back in business. He's been producing better numbers as the weeks go on and just dropped a career-high 47 points on the Hawks.

The Nuggets offence ranks 8th in the league scoring 110.8 points per 100 possessions. They approach their offence different to most teams in the league.  Stats Insider's James Rosewarne recently highlighted  that "one of the chief footprints of the NBA's analytical revolution has been the explosion of three-point shooting."

It's true for almost every team, but not the Nuggets.

As the NBA has moved further away from the basket in recent years, the Nuggets have reduced their three-point rate year-on-year. Instead, the Nuggets rely heavily on ball and player movement.

While Jokic is inside the top ten in post up frequency (22.4%) and field goal attempts (2.9), he's one of the best passing big men the NBA has ever seen and will find the open man.

Paul Millsap, Monte Morris, Malik Beasley and Jerami Grant are all shooting over 39% from beyond the arc and demand attention. Meanwhile, Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray- their most prevalent three-point shooters - may not be shooting well, but defences need to close out on them regardless.

The spacing provided (when Mason Plumlee is off the floor) by the shooting allows their most dangerous weapon in Jokic to facilitate to a cutting offence.

Defensively, the Nuggets rank favourably. 

At 12th in the league with a 107.3 defensive rating, they're more than capable of locking down elite offences on any given night. The issue is how poor they've been over the last 12 games. They've played just one of those 12 games with a defensive rating below their current season average including heinous numbers of 123.1, 131.1, 126.6 and 128.7 across four consecutive games - the last was bad enough to lose to a Wizards team without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans.

They've dropped from 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating to 12th in just five games prompting coach Mike Malone to concede the Nuggets defence "sucks".

Playing with the NBA's best offensive rating in that time has allowed the Nuggets to navigate the 12-game stretch with a 9-3 record. However, as we all know, defence wins championships.

The Nuggets won't get through 12 playoff games defending like this. 

As it stands, the Stats Insider futures model puts the Nuggets 7th in the championship projections at 3.3%.

While the Nuggets are playing well now, their history is tough to get behind. 

Last season was the first time the Nuggets had made the playoffs since 2012-13. Throughout their ten-season playoff streak between 2003-04 and 2012-13, the Nuggets fell out in the 1st Round nine times.

Even last season as the 2nd seed, the Nuggets lost to a Trail Blazers team they really should have beaten in seven games. While the 1st Round exits are a long time ago now, there was an awkward inevitability about it as the Nuggets lost the decider in front of a home crowd - "Oh, here we go again."

But with a new playoff run brings new hope, and Denver's current numbers align fairly well with recent NBA champions. Their offence is on the improve as Jokic settles in. The defence demonstrated elite levels before the calendar turned to 2020 and there is plenty of time to recapture that level in time for the post-season.

The Stats Insider futures model doesn't give the Nuggets much hope.

An unquestionably awful history in the playoffs can't be ignored either.

That doesn't mean they should be ignored throughout the regular season, though.

Despite the lack of appreciation, we've seen how good the Nuggets can be. They deserve more recognition and should at least be in the "Why is Alex Caruso making headlines and [Team A] isn't?!" conversations that are so popular right now. 

While improvements do need to come for them to be genuine championship contenders, the Nuggets are an elite team. It's about time they started to be treated like one.

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