Does Zion Williamson's return mean an NBA Playoff berth for the Pelicans?
Last updated: Mar 18, 2020, 11:54PM | Published: Jan 22, 2020, 3:29AMThis image is a derivative of 2013 New Orleans Pelicans 1 by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Forced to wait half a season longer than expected for his debut, Zion Williamson is finally NBA-ready. He's recovered from the arthroscopic procedure performed just days before the New Orleans Pelicans' season opener and is getting out there just in time to reignite their playoff hopes.
Many anticipated the Pelicans being able to tread water while waiting for Zion. However, the integration of the fresh faces from Los Angeles took a toll.
The Pelicans started the season 6-22 which included a horror 13-game losing streak. A firing was never really a possibility, but Alvin Gentry's job became a much-talked-about topic in NBA media.
An 11-5 record later and the Pelicans are 17-27. They're still down at the 12th seed in the West, but with a log-jam of decidedly average teams battling it out for the 8th seed, the Pelicans are more than capable of closing the 3.5-game gap on the Grizzlies.
Brandon Ingram is playing out of his mind, Lonzo Ball is getting comfortable, and Jrue Holiday just dropped 36 points on the Grizzlies in his return from injury.
While slow to start and offering little to be hopeful about this season, the Pelicans have rebounded well enough for Williamson's introduction to inspire hope of a once unlikely playoff push.
Pre-Zion Pelicans
The pre-Zion Pelicans have been BI's Pelicans.
Released from the shackles of LeBron James' Lakers and allowed to thrive in a team he's since made his own, Ingram has displayed all of the qualities his biggest fans have been convincing others to exist since he was drafted in 2016.
Still only 22-years old, the 6'7" forward is averaging a career and team-high in usage rate at 28.7%. With it, Ingram is averaging 25.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game this season. If he hadn't already caught the attention of the casual NBA fan, Ingram's 49 points on 15-25 shooting against the Jazz on January 16th made plenty of headlines.
Ingram came into the league as a lanky 19-year old. It was always going to take time for him to not only build his body up to handle the rigours of the NBA, but to learn how to get in positions to use his freakish length.
He's now approaching 230 games through three and a half seasons in the league. The driving angles are becoming clearer with Ingram averaging 6.4 field goal attempts on 13.9 drives per game. He scores 9.0 points at 50.2% on those drives. Once in the restricted area, Ingram knocks them down at 62.3%. For a little bit of perspective on the class Ingram is in, he's sandwiched in between well-known close range finishers in Domontas Sabonis (62.6%) and Pascal Siakam (62.1%).
The on/off-court numbers really show how vital Ingram has been to the Pelicans this season.
With Ingram on the court, the Pelicans score 110.9 points per 100 possessions. That offensive rating is good for 11th in the NBA overall. However, when Ingram sits, the Pelicans score just 104.6 points per 100 possessions. That compares closer to the Bulls and Knicks for 27th in the NBA.
With Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors and Lonzo Ball all missing sizeable chunks of the season so far, Ingram has announced himself to the NBA as a Top 25 player. He's laid a platform for Williamson to step into the Top 25 with him if he meets the lofty expectations hanging over him.
Should both Ingram and Williamson play at that sort of level, a run into the 8th seed isn't out of the question.
Playoff Hopes
First of all, Williamson needs to be really good.
His college and preseason numbers suggest that won't be a problem in the end, but how long will it take for him to start producing game-winning performances?
GP | Mins | Pts | Rebs | Ast | Blk | FG% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preseason | 4 | 27.2 | 23.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 71.4% |
College | 33 | 30.0 | 22.6 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 68% |
Could a slow start and the disruption of introducing a high-usage teenager cause too many issues for the Pelicans to overcome in such a short space of time?
If he replicates his NBA preseason or gets anywhere near his per 36 numbers of 30.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals, the Pelicans all of a sudden look like playoff probables.
Williamson gave a pretty clear indication of where he's going to be scoring throughout the preseason. With capable shooters on the perimeter, including a new and improved Ball, the lane will be clear for Zion to take off.
The Pelicans will improve by more than what Williamson provides them as an individual.
Ingram could kick on further even if his counting stats don't end up showing it. As a steady ball-handler and capable passer, a screening and cutting high-flyer like Williamson is going to present opportunities to Ingram as a facilitator and shot-creator. The attention Williamson is set to receive from defences will only make things easier for Ingram.
Meanwhile, few players in the league present themselves as a better fit for Ball than Williamson. He has his eyes on the whole court at all times. His ability as a touch-passer is amongst the best in the NBA, and his quarterback-like outlet passes give Ball's combination with Williamson mouth-watering potential. Finally healthy and spending an extended period on the court, Ball has averaged 14.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.8 assists while shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc in his last 15 games.
When it comes to Holiday, we know what to expect from him. We know he's going to get the best out of Williamson while getting the best out of himself. Paired with Ball in the backcourt, Holiday initiates the halfcourt and is the experienced hand that looks to take over in crunch time. His role in this team is clearly defined, and his 20.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game are the numbers least likely to sway too far from where they are now once Williamson hits his straps.
The Pelicans roster doesn't run too deep. Once you get past this core along with J.J. Redick, Josh Hart and Favors, things start to get a little hairy. Nevertheless, with the introduction of Williamson, the Pelicans have enough talent to make a run at the 8th seed from here.
With the standings as they are right now, 14 of the Pelicans final 15 games of the season come against sub-500 teams. If they can slot Williamson in and develop the cohesion of a playoff team without falling any further behind 8th in the West before the 15-game streak, the opportunity is there for the taking.
Sure, the Lakers probably end up getting past the Pelicans in a gentleman's sweep of a first-round at best. Cracking the playoffs is a stepping stone to greater things, though. Merely making it, especially with Williamson missing so much time, will be enough to consider this Pelicans season a great success.
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