How The Toronto Raptors Are Defying Post-Kawhi Expectations

This image is a derivative of 2013 Toronto Raptors 1 by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)

*Stats and team records updated through to 26th November, 2019*

It’s easy to under-appreciate the Toronto Raptor’s first NBA Championship.

There were those ill-timed Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson injuries for the Golden State Warriors. 

There was that audacious "quadruple-doink" game-seven buzzer-beater against the Philadelphia 76ers. There was Kawhi Leonard himself producing one of the most unforgettably dominant post-seasons in NBA history.

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Leonard averaged 30 points and nine rebounds throughout the NBA Playoffs, claimed a second NBA Finals MVP, propelled himself into true NBA superstardom and, most importantly, took the Larry O’Brien Trophy away from the United States for the first time in history.

And then?

Well... and then, Kawhi left Toronto.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP PROJECTIONS: View Full 2019-20 NBA Futures

After a season in Canada, he decided to join forces with Paul George at the Los Angeles Clippers, with many consigning Toronto’s championship place in history as a simple anomaly, one made possible only because of Toronto’s bold Kawhi-rental, one-year gamble.

That is, of course, the easy way to explain one of the most surprising championships in modern sports history - however, it’s also an unfair and misleading narrative.

The Raptors won the 2018-19 NBA Championship for the same reasons they’ve jumped out to an 12-4 start this season, while once again looking to be in the thick of a very crowded Eastern Conference race.

Put simply, Toronto is one of the sharpest organisations in professional sports; who do the little things better than most, and, who have crafted the kind of environment that flourishes amidst seemingly perpetual personnel change.

On the surface, the Kawhi Leonard trade presented as an almighty gamble, and one which threatened to thrust them into a painful rebuild should the three-time All-Star leave after one single season. 

Yet, the Raptors executed the trade because of the veritable arsenal of assets it had amassed over the years, and with the confidence they’d be able to do it all again should he leave.

While the cost to secure Leonard (and Danny Green) from the San Antonio Spurs was enormous, including DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poltl and two first-round draft picks, Raptors GM Masai Ujiriactioned the deal knowing the track-record of his organisation when it comes to the draft and free agency. 

And, it is Toronto’s array of homegrown additions and inspired pick-ups which is fuelling yet another season of Raptor relevance, and, which will continue to sustain the franchise for seasons to come.

At present, Pascal Siakam is the poster-child for everything wonderful about the Raptors. The former New Mexico State college star thrived with Leonard in town, and has taken off without him, to the point he looks like a shoo-in for a spot on the All-Star team.

Siakam's rise to becoming a sleeper MVP candidate has been as remarkable as it has been rapid, with the Cameroon-born first-round draft pick averaging 25.7 points per game so far in the 2019-20 season, while emerging as one of their most accomplished defenders. All of which is simply incredible considering he was averaging only 7.3 points two seasons ago when he was started just five games.

Siakam has received incredible assistance from teammates such as Fred Van Vleet, who qualifies as a quintessential Raptors reclamation story having been undrafted out of Wichita State before emerging as one of the league’s most improved guards. He'll enter free agency this summer seeking a multi-year deal in excess of $20 million per season.

Since joining the Raptors, Van Vleet has gone from providing an offensive spark off the bench, to this season taking over as starting point-guard in the absence of the injured Kyle Lowry.

The Raptors pipeline of young talent extends to 2017 first-round pick OG Anunoby who finally seems healthy and ready to contribute on a nightly basis. He’s started 14 games this season, and while his 11.8 points per night have been welcome, it's his defense which is proving pivotal, with the Raptors conceding just 103 points per 100 possessions with the former Indiana Hoosier on the floor, which is the best mark by any Raptor not named Serge Ibaka.

Speaking of Ibaka, he - along with Marc Gasol - are further examples of the kind of smarts which define the organisation, with the two veterans providing the bedrock of so much of what the team stands for. 

Not only have Ibaka and Gasol been two of the NBA’s very best big men for a decade, but have slotted seamlessly into Toronto and have provided the frontcourt size and versatility that makes playing against the Raptors such a nightmare.

While the personnel in Toronto has changed dramatically over the years, one consistent in this organisation is its unyielding dedication to defense, once again finding themselves in the league’s top ten.

Last season the Raptors conceded only 107.1 points per 100 possessions - good for fifth in the league - while also generating turnovers on 13.1% of opposition possessions. This season they’ve tightened the screws further, conceding just 103.5 points per 100 possessions, while lifting their opposition turnover rate to 14.2%.

Toronto are keeping opponents to a league-worst 41.3% field goal percentage, their size and length on the wings, while coupled with their interior presence, has resulted in opponents getting very little opportunity close to the basket, generating just 43.1 points per game in the paint, which is the fourth-lowest in the NBA.

If there remains any long-term trepidation about the Raptors being able to compete for another title, it’ll come down to whether they will indeed be able to find the kind of scoring which propelled them last season.

While Kawhi Leonard's loss hasn't been as monumental as expected thus far, it will be a different story come playoff time, which was where Leonard truly separated himself last season. In fact, the difference between what Leonard was producing to anybody else was as pronounced as any championship winner in recent years.

Another area in which we shouldn’t be making assumptions about the direction of the Raptors pertains to roster continuity with Ujiri just as likely to cash-in on some of his assets while simultaneously keeping his team in championship contention.

Both Ibaka and Gasol are on expiring contracts, which - though both still on the books for more than $20 million - still represent seductive chips for title contenders, in the same way they helped Toronto last season, while perhaps netting the Raptors a couple of first-round picks in return.

Another valuable asset is franchise favourite, Kyle Lowry, who at 33 years old is still one of the game's most prolific playmakers. Like Ibaka and Gasol, he’d perhaps warrant a first-round pick in return, while providing so much for a team in need of an offensive boost and who could also absorb the $33 million he's owed both this season and next. 

Whichever route the Raptors take, you can rest assured they will remain at least within championship striking distance. 

The Kawhi Leonard trade and the eventual championship parade through Toronto was a vindication of Ujiri's brilliance. Their continued excellence this season is further testament to how ironclad the 'Raptor Way' is.

It was convenient to dismiss their championship bonafides in the wake of Kawhi's departure, however, these Raptors refuse to disappear into extinction.

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