NBA 2020-21: What Have We Learnt From The Opening Week?
Dec 29, 2020, 5:24AMWe really shouldn't be surprised about the buffet of story lines and talking points the first week of the NBA season dished up. The league rarely fails to produce and made sure to start 2020-21 with a bang.
But as we dig through the early-season overreactions and step past the dismissive "it's December" comments from hopeful fan bases, we can ponder some of the possible realities of this opening week while weeding out the fluky starts.
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Cavaliers: Are they good?
First up, the 3-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.
On nobodies NBA League Pass watch list and still flying below the radar, the Cavaliers have beaten the Hornets, Pistons and 76ers to start the season. The first two are still somewhat surprising despite the low expectations of the two teams overall, but the Cavaliers went into their game against the 76ers with just a 38% chance of victory according to the Stats Insider Model.
The Cavs didn't just win. They smacked the pants off the 76ers to record a sizable 118-94 victory. So, is this team that carried a 0.1% chance of winning the championship into the season actually good?
Probably not. They may turn out better than many predicted before the season tipped off, but it's not likely that they are actually any 'good'. Their early-season numbers aren't sustainable.
As of 29/12/2020:
- One of only three teams with a 3-0 record
- 5th in points scored @ 122.3 per game
- 1st in assists @ 31.5 per game
- 1st in three-point percentage @ 43.4%
- 3rd in effective field goal percentage @ 58.8%
- 2nd in defensive rating @ 99.8 points allowed per 100 possessions
The Cavaliers starting well and Colin Sexton continuing to grow as a player is fun, but it isn't real.
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Pacers Start 3-0
The Pacers stuck firm with their roster throughout the off-season. Most of it has returned for 2020-21 with the major change coming in the coaches chair. Nate Bjorkgren replaced Nate McMillan, and boy do the players seem happy about it.
They've started the season with wins over the Knicks, Bulls and Celtics while dropping a few interesting nuggets into post-game press conferences.
Whether or not the commentary stems from a dislike of McMillan, or they're simply trying to talk up Bjorkgren early into his career, the Pacers players are enjoying their time under a new coach. Domantas Sabonis, in particular. There is no question who the best player on this team is right now: it's Sabonis.
He's put up 24.3 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists to start the season while also knocking down the game-winner against the Celtics. His start to the year saw him awarded with the Player of the Week in the Eastern Conference.
Indy tipped the season off at just 0.9% in the championship odds. Expect that number to rise a little throughout the season. But despite the hot start and the promising comments about the coach, the Pacers prospects are still lukewarm. A similar 44-45win season to the last looks the most likely reality.
Julius Randle On Fire
Julius Randle has always had potential to be a regular box score filler.
After playing just 14 minutes of his 2014-15 rookie season, Randle averaged 11.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game in 2015-16. He struggled to carve out a consistent role in some terrible Lakers teams in the years that followed. He did, however, take his chance with the Pelicans in 2018-19 to average 21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists while shooting 52.4% from the floor. Maintaining similar numbers with the Knicks a year later but dropping his field goal percentage to just 46%, Randle has come out firing to start the 2020-21 season.
The 26-year-old has opened with 23.7 points, 10 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game while shooting 55.6% from deep (on three attempts per game) and 55.3% overall.
Opponent | Minutes | FG% | 3P% | Rebounds | Assists | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | 35:28 | 46.7% | 00.0% | 9 | 9 | 17 |
76ers | 34:35 | 73.3% | 100% | 7 | 3 | 25 |
Bucks | 37:07 | 47.1% | 60.0% | 14 | 7 | 29 |
Only RJ Barrett has averaged more minutes (36.7) to start the season than Randle. They're big, but the raw numbers look real. He's a triple-double threat every night and 20+ points, 8+ rebounds and 5+ assists isn't an average stat line that will surprise at the end of the season. What isn't real is the three-point shooting percentage.
He has only shot nine so far this season for a start. He was either 'open' or 'wide open' on eight of them according to NBA.com. The gaps will close and Randle's current 55.6% will drop. But he's going to put up numbers all season long.
Defending the Nets
Everybody had a similar reaction to this shot:
The single-dribble and gather. The full extension of the defender. The ease at which Kevin Durant got the shot off. Splash.
"Here he is."
Durant and Kyrie Irving planted the Brooklyn Nets firmly in the championship conversation after just one half of the season opener.
Durant scored 12 points on 5-11 shooting and looked like his old self after spending 550+ days on the sidelines. His partner in crime went even better. Irving shot 9-13 on his way to 24 first-half points as the Nets cruised to a 125-99 win over the Warriors.
Brooklyn's 113.4 offensive rating ranked 8th in the league before playing the Grizzlies without Durant and Irving on Tuesday. Perhaps more importantly, their 96.6 defensive rating topped the league to generate a +16.8 net rating - also top of the league and 0.1 ahead of the defending champion Lakers.
Few doubted the scoring ability of the Nets so the early defensive numbers are incredibly encouraging. This isn't a roster featuring many recognised defenders. Brooklyn's depth poses to serve them well with the ball, but it's the effort of players competing for minutes on the defensive end that may well be the big surprise.
The Nets sitting at the top in defensive rating may not be real all season. A repeat of last season and slotting into the Top 10 - a requirement for almost all championship contending teams - is a real possibility, though.
Clippers: The 50-Burger
It's the meat and potatoes of NBA content after the first week of the season: The LA Clippers lost to the Dallas Mavericks by 51 points.
No Kawhi Leonard in the lineup doesn't excuse that result. It's embarrassing and raises genuine questions over the Clippers and their championship chances. This isn't just a loss - championship teams suffer plenty of those. The Clippers are meant to have learnt from last season. No nights off, no excuses. Just win basketball games and develop chemistry along the way.
However, the Clippers took this night off. A night against one of the best teams in the NBA, no less. Then came the excuses...
Christmas on the road translated into a "sluggish day?"
A championship calibre team loses in a relative close one on a sluggish day. Not by 51 points.
Early-season losses don't typically define seasons. The Clippers will still win plenty of games and compete with the Lakers for the top seed in the Western Conference. However, a loss this size will be revisited if they again fail to fire in the playoffs. It will be seen as a sign of things to come.
The players on the roster are real. Is the team? We're going to need another few weeks to start making a decision on that one.
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