It's all a little bit messy and nobody is quite sure how it's going to work, but the 2020-21 NBA season is here.

Teams have barely entered camp, meanwhile the poor rookies are only just starting to get to know the league and will soon find themselves out on the court with the best players in the world. 

Like last season, this one carries different challenges. Still, the Stats Insider Futures Model has crunched the numbers to give us championship probabilities and we've looked into what might influence that probability moving forward.

Atlanta Hawks - 0.8%

The Atlanta Hawks are on the offensive and in search of a playoff berth this season. Are they bypassing critical steps to the rebuild or will early playoff experience one day pay championship dividends? The Stats Insider futures model hasn't signalled much of a chance for the Hawks this year, but at the very least, their style and intent will be interesting to monitor this season.

Trae Young has been handed a handful of encouraging tools with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Solomon Hill and Rajon Rondo arriving in town. With the addition of some veteran leadership to go with what's a young and developing core, the Hawks have a deep roster that will require some juggling. All we do know is that Young will put up plenty of numbers on the offensive end, and more than likely continue to struggle defensively. But the Hawks seem happy enough to wear Young's dire defence and instead focus on piling up points.

This isn't a top tier team in the East, but they should be in the hunt for the 7th and 8th seeds.

Boston Celtics - 6.8%

So much of this Boston Celtics season depends on Kemba Walker. Having nursed an injury for much of last season and out to start this one until at least January, Walker's health could make or break Boston's championship chances.

Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown ensure the Celtics have one of the best wing combinations in the NBA every night. Tatum's an offensive force and can lead the team on that side of the ball, while Brown can plug himself into the offence wherever he's needed. Both hold up their end of the bargain defensively too. The Celtics won't lose too much when their bench features either. However, the dynamic Walker is the piece that puts Boston into the championship conversation.

We're not going to learn anything definitive about the Celtics until Walker is back on the floor at close to full strength.

Brooklyn Nets - 9.4%

The Brooklyn Nets could be anything in 2020-21.

To see Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving celebrating an NBA championship wouldn't be a shock. Nor would locker-room turmoil, passive-aggressive tweets from a burner account or on-court chemistry issues boiling over into heated time-out discussions. With Durant and Irving wearing the same jersey, the potential for basketball fame or infamy is what will keep the Nets towards the top of the most exciting teams in the league list all season long.

At the very least, the Nets will be one of the best half-court scoring teams in the NBA. They aren't short of strong shooters from the outside either. The offence isn't going to be a problem for this group. Defence, on the other hand, well, the 113.8 defensive rating the Nets played with while Irving was on the floor last season (20 games) isn't the most encouraging starting point.

Steve Nash has his work cut out for him to start his NBA coaching career. But like the Durant and Irving additions, Nash's development in the coaches chair is another narrative that, good or bad, makes the Nets must-watch.

The comeback is on.

🎥 15 points in the preseason debut for @KDTrey5 🎥 pic.twitter.com/tPywmhuTIN

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) December 14, 2020

Charlotte Hornets - 0.3%

LaMelo Ball is already a highlight reel machine. Like Alex Caruso last year, the coverage of Ball will be overdone, and therefore he will be over-scrutinised. It's just how it goes in a sport so popular across social media. In reality, he's going to make some things look outrageously easy as his passing game appears NBA-ready.

But for every pinpoint pass to a teammate, Ball will be exposed at the hands of the most average of offensive players. 

Ball's introduction to the NBA is going to be a rollercoaster. Will Gordon Hayward be riding it, though? The new Hornets addition is already sitting on the sidelines with an avulsion fracture on his right hand. 

Devonte' Graham, P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges all offered encouraging glimpses with the ball last year. Having Hayward as the focal point of the offence takes the pressure off the young group. Without him, the Hornets offence is unlikely to improve much on it's 29th-ranked 106.3 offensive rating last season.

The Hornets have taken a strange approach to rebuilding and must start to show something this season.

Chicago Bulls - 0.4%

Gar Forman and John Paxon are gone. So too is Jim Boylan. That means a lot of the excuses have been wiped away too. Billy Donovan and the Chicago Bulls playing group have been given a fresh slate, and they're expected to improve on their 22-43 record from last season.

Zach LaVine, Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Coby White, Thadeous Young and Garret Temple don't jump out as a group destined to make the playoffs, but there is plenty there for Donovan to work with.

Carter Jr., in particular, is an intriguing piece that should be looking towards Bam Adebayo for inspiration. The Bulls forward has the passing game to feature more heavily in the offence if his shooting catches up - he shot 1-16from deep throughout the pre-season.

We've been talking about the Bulls rebuilding for too long, however, with the GarPax era finally over and a new blueprint for success in the works, the Bulls can begin to work towards a brighter future.

Cleveland Cavaliers - 0.1%

Andre Drummond, Kevin Love, JaVale McGee, Thon Maker and Larry Nance Jr. makes for a...curious frontcourt?

The makeup of the Cleveland Cavaliers roster is strange, to say the least. What they're working toward is anybody's guess, and they're not going to be particularly interesting to keep track of along the way. 

Hidden away on a terrible team and already with an unfair reputation as a chucker, Collin Sexton is a strong candidate for being "the guy nobody is talking about" this season. He's not going to be short of scoring opportunities. If he keeps knocking them down from deep (38% last season) and continues to increase his trips to the line (he averaged 3.8 free throws per game before the All-Star break and 5.5 per game after), Sexton will be a lot more palatable to the average NBA fan. 

There isn't a lot to get excited about in Cleveland. Sexton's development leads the way.

Detroit Pistons - 0.1%

Few roster turnovers have been so unremarkable as what the Detroit Pistons pulled off over the offseason. 

Via NBA.com's Player Movement Tracker:

Detroit's eggs are in a basket made up of four rookies: Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, Saben Lee and Isaiah Stewart. If Blake Griffin can stay on the court long enough to justify his $34.2million, and if Jerami Grant can look like the sort of player worth the $20 million Detroit decided to throw at him, they could appeal as a developing team by the end of the season.

Indiana Pacers - 0.9%

In stark contrast to the Pistons, the Indiana Pacers begin this upcoming season with much of the same roster. The big change comes at the top with Nate McMillan punted for Nate Bjorkgren. 

Victor Oladipo's future remains uncertain. His flash-in-the-pan 2017-18 season is now a distant memory. With only 55 games to his name since, Oladipo hasn't come close to recapturing the sort of form that somewhat justified moving Paul George. He may not finish this season in Indy.

What about Myles Turner? He's another trade chip given how well Domantas Sabonis played last season. The 23-year-old averaged 18.5 points, 12.4 rebounds and 5.0assists last season. He's an excellent option at centre, but so too is Turner. McMillan tried to play the pair together with varying levels of success. If the right player becomes available on the market, Turner will surely be part of any trade conversations. 

The Pacers performed exceptionally well on the defensive end last season. Their 108.0 defensive rating ranked 6th in the league. It's an area the Pacers must continue to dominate under a new coach if they're to make the leap from a middling Eastern team into a relevant conference contender.

Miami Heat - 9.0%

The Miami Heat came from nowhere to win the Eastern Conference Finals and push the Los Angeles Lakers to six games. 

Jimmy Butler performed in ways we've always known he's capable, while Bam Adebayo became one of the best bigs in the league. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herromade up one of the better supporting casts by the end of the season.

The problem for Miami in 2020-21 is that they have lost the element of surprise. Expectations have been set for this group, and they will now be circled on the schedule much like the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks and Celtics. The positive: the group has largely remained together.

Continuity is an underrated aspect of successful teams; just ask the Clippers. The Heat have come within two wins of championship glory, have a deep and cohesive roster, and a coach in Erik Spoelstra who will leave no stone unturned in his quest for a third ring.

The model is bullish on the Heat already. James Harden's arrival would really shake things up, though. 

"iT's jUsT pResEaSoN"

Us: pic.twitter.com/coXvXnp2eX

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) December 15, 2020

Milwaukee Bucks - 10.7%

The Milwaukee Bucks absolutely flopped last season. 

They're championship contenders, but it's about time they proved as much at the pointy end of the season.

Jrue Holiday's arrival is a major source of optimism. He's close to the perfect acquisition and Milwaukee's risk in trading for Holiday has already netted them Giannis Antetokounmpo's extension. Now we wait to see how it all transpires on the floor. On paper, Holiday's defensive prowess and playmaking is exactly what the Bucks asked for this Christmas. 

Paired with back-to-back MVP in Antetokounmpo, and with Khris Middleton coming off a career year, anything short of the Eastern Conference Finals will be labelled a failure for Holiday and the Bucks. It would put Mike Budenholzerwell and truly in the hot seat- if he isn't there already.

New York Knicks - 0.1%

The 2020-21 New York Knicks are a team for the basketball tragics; those that still believe in Dennis Smith Jr., Nerlens Noel and Julius Randle, are intrigued by Frank Ntilikina and Elfrid Payton, or curious about RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox and Obi Toppin. Mitchell Robinson's development and thunderous dunks aren't enough to entice the casual fan to risk two hours sitting through Knicks basketball. 

Tom Thibodeau's rotations will be talked about plenty, regardless of how many people are watching this team throughout the year. 

The model's 0.1% sums up the Knicks and their prospects this season. The tank continues.

Orlando Magic - 1.1%

The Orlando Magic won't be stepping off the treadmill of mediocrity any time soon, but there is enough to be hopeful for a .500 season and third-consecutive playoff appearance.

Johnathan Isaac isn't going to see the court in the short term. However, Aaron Gordon will pair nicely with Nikola Vucivic in the front-court. With Markelle Fultz making leaps, and Cole Anthony displaying promising potential in pre-season games, Orlando can cause a few problems on the offensive end. 

Should they maintain last season's 9th-ranked 109.5 defensive rating, the Magic will secure another post-season appearance. 

Philadelphia 76ers - 4.0%

Shooters! The Philadelphia 76ers added shooters!

Finally, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid have pieces around them that complement their style and skillset.

The debate over whether or not Simmons and Embiid can coexist has gone around in circles for years. Now, with Seth Curry and Danny Green spacing the floor, the 76ers will threaten enough on the perimeter for Embiid, in particular, to work his magic down low.

Al Horford has also been moved along to make space for Embiid in the post. That's an experience many knew was destined to fail from Day 1. The Sixers have since fired Brett Brown and hired Doc Rivers, while Daryl Morey has signed on as president.

The front office appears settled. The roster is now well-rounded and better positioned to make a run in the Eastern Conference. With a top-ten defence and an offence that 'should' improve given the personnel changes, this might finally be the year Philly's process produces the goods.

RELATED: Can the 76ers Still Trust The Process?

Ben Simmons pick-and-roll with Dwight, setting up Seth Curry for a side-step 3.

Giving Simmons more space, running more pick-and-roll, and having more shooters is going to be great for the Sixers this season. pic.twitter.com/005wV3klQ7

— Tom West (@TomWestNBA) December 16, 2020

Toronto Raptors - 4.1%

In reaching a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Toronto Raptors exceeded expectations last season. They did it on the back of an outstanding defence.

Ranked behind only the Bucks with a 105.0 defensive rating, the Raptors starved opposing offences. Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Aaron Baynes will again anchor one of the NBA's stingiest defences this season. The challenge is finding points themselves.

Siakam holds the key to Toronto's offence. While struggling for consistency, he bumped his average up from 16.9 points per game in 2018-19 to 22.9 points per game last season. Will Kyle Lowry start to age? Can Fred VanVleet take another step on the offensive end? Is it OG Anunoby's time to shine with the ball in hand?

The Raptors will need to find a few extra points if they're to again upset the apple cart in the East.

Washington Wizards - 0.8%

Which team won the Russell Westbrook/John Wall trade will be a debate that rages all season. Right now, the Washington Wizards are likely victors. Love him or hate him, Westbrook can put up numbers and will undoubtedly take on the challenge of dragging the Wizards back into the playoffs himself. 

It won't matter so much how he gels with Bradley Beal on offence - both will get theirs. 

It's however a different story on the defensive end. There is......nothing. Not a skerrick of defensive ability or desire. Washington finished up with the worst defensive rating in the league at 115.5 last season. Their -4.6net rating ranked sixth-worst in the league despite their 110.9 offensive rating landing in the top half. 

The Wizards will score points and do enough with the ball most nights to make the opposition work. However, the wins won't come regularly if they themselves don't start working harder without it.

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