141 days...

That's how long it will have been between games once the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans restart the NBA season in Orlando.

But we're finally here and while there is no guarantee we make it to the end, the Stats Insider Model has simulated the NBA bubble 10,000 times as though we will to give us an idea of the contenders, pretenders and number makers.

HOW IT WORKS 

The 2019-20 season has been whittled down to 22 teams. 

The 16 teams holding playoff spots back in March have all entered the bubble along with six others still in contention.

In the Eastern Conference, the Wizards occupy the 9th seed and are the only non-playoff team from the conference entering the bubble.

In the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs and Suns all have their eye on the 8th-placed Grizzlies. 

To determine which teams make the playoffs, and how the eight spots in each conference are seeded, eight 'seeding' games will be played to start. The schedule has been determined by taking the original schedule and removing the teams no longer playing this season and making any adjustments for double-ups. 

If any of the teams currently outside of the playoff picture can pull to within four games of the 8th seed, a play-in series will determine who takes the last spot. The 8th seed will require one win to advance while the 9th seed will require two. From there, the playoffs run as normal. 

CONTENDERS

As far as the on-court basketball and expectations go, little has changed. The Bucks, Clippers and Lakers are still in a league of their own when it comes to the championship race. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the favourite for MVP and is now healthy after nursing a knee injury. His 29.6 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game are likely to improve from here on out, too. With the Bucks consistently thrashing their opposition, Antetonounmpo has averaged just 30.9 minutes per game this season. With Khris Middleton in 50/40/90 territory for his 21.2 points per game and Eric Bledsoe admirably filling the void left by Malcolm Brogdon, the Stats Insider Futures Modelhas pegged the Bucks as favourites to win the title by the end of this strange NBA season.

But they will more than likely need to go through one of the Clippers or Lakers to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Despite sitting behind the Lakers in the standings with a leap to the 1st seed unlikely, the futures model puts the Clippers slightly ahead of their Los Angeles rivals. 

On paper, the Clippers are a monster. They have two superstars in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard leading the way, two Sixth Man of the Year candidates in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell filling in off the bench, and hand-picked role players that Doc Rivers can plug and play into any situation. The only genuine cause for concern is how they all gel together under the pressures of a playoff environment.

George and Leonard have only played 32 games together this season. While some of that has come by design through load-management, Rivers will surely have wanted the duo to share the court on more than 40 occasions when he set out to start the season. However, this playoff environment isn't like the rest. They won't be faced with raucous road crowds and potential home-cooked officiating.  Talent will shine through and with George and Leonard producing a 115.2 offensive rating and 103.5 defensive rating in those 32 games together, the pair have an elite, albeit brief, base to work from for their 24% to win the title.

A win over the Clippers in their restarted season opener will lock up the 1st seed for the Lakers. 

With a couple of things to work out rotation wise, the option to play his role players more in the eight seeding games will help prepare Frank Vogel for the playoffs. He doesn't need to worry about LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Unlike George and Leonard, the Lakers duo have played more minutes together than any other Lakers 2-man lineup this season. It's the backcourt - now without Avery Bradley - that needs tinkering. How the likes of Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green and the newly acquired JR Smith and Dion Waiters are rotated and the efficiency at which they produce will determine how far the Lakers go this season. On the third line at 22.4% to win the championship, one surprise playoff run, perhaps from Kyle Kuzma, might be all James and Davis need to leap the Bucks and Clippers in the futures projections.

PRETENDERS

It might be harsh to call some of these teams 'pretenders', but that's effectively what the Futures Model is saying with none of the other 19 teams given more than a 5.3% chance to win the NBA Finals.

The 76ers are the favourites of the bunch at 5.3%. With Ben Simmons moving to power forward and falling one assist short of a triple-double while hoisting two three-point attempts in his first scrimmage, Philly's ceiling goes far beyond the 5.3%. It's not difficult to picture this group going seven games with the Bucks and coming out on top.

The Rockets could be anything. It's most likely that they aren't contending for the championship, though. At 4.6% to win the NBA Finals, the Stats Insider Futures model doesn't have a lot of belief in their outrageously small-ball lineups. Plenty point out their regular-season win over the Lakers. However, most don't point out the four-game losing streak just before the break that featured losses to the lowly Knicks and Hornets. 

It's an eyebrow-raiser to start, but the Celtics' 3% looks about right when considering the sort of leap the 76ers can make if this Simmons thing takes off. However, Boston's ceiling can climb as high as the NBA Finals too. If everything breaks right, if Kemba Walker stays healthy, Gordon Hayward keeps improving and Jayson Tatum takes another little leap, this team has the tools to cause an upset. They're fourth in defensive rating (106.8) and have a deep young team that is set up to thrive in this unconventional setting.

While the Raptors have exceeded expectations to be 46-18 and the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference, the dream of back-to-back titles is exactly that - a dream at 3%. Pascal Siakam's rapid rise to stardom has been the catalyst to their success this season. But when you look at the teams the Raptors could face not only in the East but also in the Finals, it's difficult to put Siakam above any of the other stars. It's a little reductive; the Raptors have thrived on their depth and the reliability of role players after all. But the playoffs can come down to single moments - star vs star. Siakam is the underdog in that scenario more often than not.

Unfortunately for us, the Stats Insider Model doesn't have a read on how Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will get along given their frosty relationship of late. They're saying the right things, but who really knows how that will all come out on the court when things get serious. Gobert isn't one to hide his disdain on the occasions Mitchell holds onto the ball just a little too long. With Bojan Bogdanovic out for the season and Mike Conley failing to produce so far in 2019-20, the Jazz are pegged as a good team, but not a great team. That's reflected further in their 2.5% to win the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets will get as far as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can drag them. The Stats Insider Futures model offers just a 2.2% of that being to championship glory, but a repeat of their 2018-19 Western Conference Semi-Finals can be considered a success. This team is young and inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs. This is all a learning curve for Mike Malone and his group. While Jokic and Murray make for an excellent one-two punch and can conceivably drag the Nuggets further than many expect, they look more likely to be a tough hurdle for an eventual conference finalist.

Speaking of dragging a team and an inexperienced one at that: Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. There is little doubt they will provide tough opposition with Doncic primed to continue his stellar season. But a 17th-ranked 110.6 defensive rating hangs over their playoff potential like a dark cloud. It will ultimately be what ends their run with just a 1.1% chance of pulling off a miracle.

Sandwiched between the Nuggets and Mavericks is the Heat. With Jimmy Butler, anything is possible. With Bam Adebayo, anything is possible. The two can cause any opposition havoc on the day, but when they don't, the Heat lack a consistent third option to pick up the slack. They have candidates; Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have all stepped in at times this season. It's the questions over consistency and reliability of doing it in a playoff series that has the Heat at 1.7% to win it all.

Making Up The Numbers

It's the perfect season for casual NBA fans.

They absorb all of the pre-season hype to get fired up for the season, only have to sit through a handful of games between teams that don't feature their favourite player or have a real championship chance, and then it's playoff time.

Perfect.

For the bubble season, almost half are simply making up the numbers.

Victor Oladipo's play in the scrimmages has been encouraging, but that's somewhat cancelled out by Domantas Sabonis leaving the bubble for treatment on his plantar fasciitis. The Pacers need both to be fit and firing to be any hope of making noise in the post-season. 

The Nets and Magic are playing off for the right to be swept by the Bucks in the first round. The Grizzlies, Pelicans and Trail Blazers are doing the same in the West only for the Lakers to be the team holding the broom.

As impressive as the Thunder have been this season, they will finish up in eight games. So too will the Spurs, Kings, Suns and Wizards. But who cares? We'd sit through a Warriors v Cavaliers seven-game series just to see basketball right now. 

Disney World is called the happiest place on earth. Here's hoping this season goes for long enough that one team can walk out of the bubble celebrating an NBA Finals win.

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