NBA Western Conference Preview

The Western Conference was a bloodbath last season, so much so that the 46-win Denver Nuggets and 42-win Los Angeles Clippers bust into the bulging Western Playoff bracket. To make matters worse, LeBron James signed with the Los Angeles Lakers, adding another team into the Playoff mix. With the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies now pushing at the fringe of the Playoffs, it's going to be one hell of a season out West.

Dallas Mavericks

2017/18 Record: 24-58
Offensive Rating: 105.4 (24th)
Defensive Rating: 108.2 (16th)
Net Rating: -2.9 (22nd)
2018/19 Over/Under: 35

It's the year of Luka Doncic (drafted 3rd) in Dallas. He's the man they wanted - along with DeAndre Jordan - so the Mavericks can finally start to make a dent in this rebuild. Dennis Smith Jr has a season under his belt and looks good to step up in the point guard role. Harrison Barnes, while not a superstar, will find 18+ points a night no matter the scenario. Dirk Nowitzki isn't the player he once was, but he can still provide serviceable minutes off the bench when called upon. The talent is there, and this season, the Mavericks care.

They were the worst team in the NBA down the stretch last season, but that wasn't an accident. Finishing games with the bench to promote losses and a rise up the draft lottery in 2017/18, the Mavericks will win a few more of those close games this time around.

O/U Prediction: Over

Denver Nuggets

2017/18 Record: 46-36
Offensive Rating: 111.3 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 109.9 (23rd)
Net Rating: +1.4 (11th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 47.5

The Nuggets have been building up the W's over the last two seasons (40 in 2016/17 and 46 in 2017/18) and look good to add a few more in 2018/19. They've added Isaiah Thomas and Michael Porter Jr, but it's a healthy Paul Millsap that will make the difference. He only played 38 games last season and the defence suffered while he was out. Denver's 23rd ranked defence cost them a spot in the playoffs but with Millsap on the court, the Nuggets were in the top 12 in defensive rating at 107.1.

Nikola Jokic will continue to improve and Jamal Murray will do the same, but Millsap's health will decide Denver's season.

O/U Prediction: Over

Golden State Warriors

2017/18 Record: 58-24
Offensive Rating: 112.7 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 106.8 (11th)
Net Rating: +5.9 (3rd)
2018/19 Over/Under: 62

The Warriors won 58 games without even trying last season. Steph Curry only played 51 games while Draymond Green and Kevin Durant both missed 10+. If Curry is healthy, the Warriors are touching 70 wins. The Warriors have played at a 69-win pace with Curry on the floor throughout the Steve Kerr era. A little luck in the injury department along with the motivation and enthusiasm adding DeMarcus Cousins will provide should be enough to see the Warriors finish at the top of the West.

O/U Prediction: Over

Houston Rockets

2017/18 Record: 65-17
Offensive Rating: 114.0 (1st)
Defensive Rating: 105.6 (7th)
Net Rating: +8.4 (1st)
2018/19 Over/Under: 56.5

The turnover in players isn't ideal for a team that finished at the top of the West last season, but the Rockets are still a force to be reckoned with. James Harden will do his thing and Chris Paul can still put up numbers at 33-years old. As much as losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute may hurt, retaining Clint Capela was the key to Houston maintaining their top 10 defense.

It's Carmelo Anthony that delivers the uncertainty around the Rockets. He's not a great fit on paper, but if he can tweak his game and embrace the role he's given, Melo can give the Rockets a boost on the offensive end.

Winning 65 games in 2017/18 was a massive feat they'll struggle to repeat, but the Rockets aren't nine wins worse this season.

O/U Prediction: Over

Los Angeles Clippers

2017/18 Record: 42-40
Offensive Rating: 109.3 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 109.2 (19th)
Net Rating: +0.2 (17th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 37.5

The last remnants of Lob City have left the building with Blake Griffin traded away and DeAndre Jordan opting to sign with the Mavericks. Tobias Harris is entering his prime and will come close to averaging 20ppg, but Lou Williams is unlikely to replicate the 22ppg he put up last year. Scoring could be scarce, however, in Patrick Beverley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Milos Teodosic and Avery Bradley, the Clippers have plenty of depth at the guard position to find the hot hand on any given night.

Defense remains an issue even when adding Luc Mbah a Moute. The Clippers can withstand injuries given their depth but lack the quality to make noise in a stacked Western Conference.

O/U Prediction: Under

Los Angeles Lakers

2017/18 Record: 35-47
Offensive Rating: 105.9 (23rd)
Defensive Rating: 107.2 (13th)
Net Rating: -1.3 (21st)
2018/19 Over/Under: 47.5

This is a completely different team to the young group that won 35 games last season. A crazy summer ended with LeBron James, Michael Beasley, Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee and Lance Stephenson added to the roster which guarantees one thing: entertainment.

The rest is up in the air. How's Lonzo Ball's knee? Will Brandon Ingram make a significant leap? Can Kyle Kuzma keep his shot dropping? Will Josh Hart continue to be satisfied as a Mr Fix It?

James automatically makes the Lakers a playoff contender, but how long they take to get there is the great unknown. Teams needed 47 wins to make the playoffs last year and the number will be similar this year. Expecting the classic LeBron James slow start and league-wide panic, the Lakers will be sniffing around the 8th spot all season. 

O/U Prediction: Under

Memphis Grizzlies

2017/18 Record: 22-60
Offensive Rating: 103.4 (27th)
Defensive Rating: 110.2 (26th)
Net Rating: -6.7 (27th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 33.5

The 2017/18 season was a disaster for the Grizzlies. Losing Mike Conley for all but 12 games killed any chance of being relevant and instead, Memphis embraced the tank. Picking up Jaren Jackson Jr (drafted 4th) gives them a big body that will put up numbers from day one while Kyle Anderson is a decent fit on the wing. Both will get down and dirty and employ the Grizzlies Grit 'n Grind style of play.

If the Grizzlies are healthy, they're too good and too experienced not to win more than 33.5 games. They've had some rotten luck, but backing the health of a 31-year-old Conley and 33-year-old Marc Gasol carries an element of risk.

O/U Prediction: Over

Minnesota Timberwolves

2017/18 Record: 47-35
Offensive Rating: 112.3 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 110.1 (25th)
Net Rating: +2.2 (10th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 41.5

With all the speculation around Jimmy Butler and his future with the franchise, the Timberwolves over/under is one to stay away from. If they manage to repair the fractured relationship, the Timberwolves will challenge for the playoffs again in 2018/19. If he's forced out, it's unlikely Minny gets enough in return to keep them in the picture.

Their elite offense was enough for the Timberwolves to be successful during the regular season, but their 25th ranked defense ensured they were light work for the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Unless they can make a significant improvement defensively, the Timberwolves won't rise much further up the standings even if Butler stays.

O/U Prediction: Under

New Orleans Pelicans

2017/18 Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 108.4 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 107.2 (14th)
Net Rating: +1.1 (13th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 45.5

Anthony Davis is a special for MVP if the Pelicans can find enough wins. His 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks are MVP-worthy, it was the 48 wins and 6th seed that saw Brow finished third in the voting.

Losing DeMarcus Cousins changes things, but a healthy Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle should go a long way to filling the void. The pair gives the Pelicans the option to stretch the floor around Davis with Mirotic, or push the pace and dominate inside with Randle. Swapping out Rajon Rondo for Elfrid Payton could end up relatively like-for-like.

A few of the faces are different, but the expectations remain the same. There's no reason the Pelicans can't get themselves back into the playoffs this season. 

O/U Prediction: Over

Oklahoma City Thunder

2017/18 Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 109.9 (7th)
Defensive Rating: 106.3 (9th)
Net Rating: +3.6 (6th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 48.5

It's all about injuries for the Thunder this season. Russell Westbrook still hasn't been cleared for contact and isn't likely to be on the court for opening night. Meanwhile, Andre Roberson has had a setback in his recovery from a patellar tendon injury that derailed the Thunder's 2017/18 season. He's not even going to be reevaluated for another six weeks leaving the Thunder without their best defender throughout a tough opening stretch of games.

With Roberson on the floor, OKC's defence was among the best in the NBA with a 96.4 defensive rating. When Roberson isn't out there, that number blows out to 108.6.

The Thunder are going to be a top team, and when March comes, there's a good chance they'll be playing like a 53-54-win team. But with the injuries to start the season, they'll struggle to finish with more than 48 wins.

O/U Prediction: Under

Phoenix Suns

2017/18 Record: 21-61
Offensive Rating: 102.6 (30th)
Defensive Rating: 111.6 (30th)
Net Rating: -9.0 (30th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 29

Undoubtedly the worst team in the league last season, the Suns are a chance at finally getting off the bottom of the West. Devin Booker's injury is a slight worry, but the drafting of DeAndre Ayton (drafted 1st) provides the franchise with plenty of encouragement over their future. Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Darrell Arthur, Richaun Holmes and Mikal Bridges (drafted 10th) give the overall roster a boost too.

However, the Suns are worryingly thin in the guard department outside of Booker and Josh Jackson. Unless they can trade for another competent guard, an injury would all but ensure the Suns fail to crack 30 wins.

O/U Prediction: Under

Portland Trail Blazers

2017/18 Record: 49-33
Offensive Rating: 108.3 (13th)
Defensive Rating: 105.5 (6th)
Net Rating: +2.8 (9th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 42

Only three wins separated the Blazers from their eventual 3rd seed to the 9th seed last season and they've not done much to keep up with the growth of those around them in the standings. They live and die by pull-up jumpers which lends itself to the sort of inconsistencies that plague average teams. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will again consume most of the offense which hasn't been the best recipe for success in recent years.

While the Western Conference seems to be getting better, it doesn't look like the Blazers will be able to keep up.

O/U Prediction: Under

Sacramento Kings

2017/18 Record: 27-55
Offensive Rating: 103.0 (29th)
Defensive Rating: 110.3 (27th)
Net Rating: -7.2 (29th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 26

Marvin Bagley III (drafted 2nd) is an exciting addition for the Kings, but not enough to stop them from falling to the bottom of the West.

The rest of the conference is improving at a far quicker rate and reacquiring Ben McLemore and signing Nemanja Bjelica and Yogi Ferrell doesn't come close to keeping pace - even with the Suns. The development of Bagley along with De'Aaron Fox and Harry Giles will be the best way to measure Sacramento's season as the W/L column isn't going to make for great reading. 

O/U Prediction: Under

San Antonio Spurs

2017/18 Record: 47-35
Offensive Rating: 107 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 104.1 (4th)
Net Rating: +2.9 (8th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 43.5

Yes, the Spurs won 47 games without Kawhi Leonard last season and added DeMar DeRozan, but the departed Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and the recently injured Dejounte Murray had plenty to do with it.

Gregg Popovich always finds a way to have to Spurs competitive and the defense should remain in the top 10 in the league. LaMarcus Aldridge will get his and Pau Gasol can still produce, but the offense will depend on how quickly DeRozan slots in. Without Murray there, DeRozan's usage will sky-rocket higher than first thought.

There's a lot of uncertainty and the roster isn't all that young, but it's easier to trust the Spurs to get it done than bet against them.

O/U Prediction: Over

Utah Jazz

2017/18 Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (16th)
Defensive Rating: 102.9 (1st)
Net Rating: +4.3 (5th)
2018/19 Over/Under: 50

Even with Rudy Gobert missing 26 games, the Jazz still finished the season with the NBA's best defense. The offense needs work but should improve on 2017/18.

Donovan Mitchell will have a target on his back this season, however, a healthy Dante Exum will help shoulder some of the load in terms of ball-handling alongside Ricky Rubio.

Well-coached with much of the same team turning up after leading the league in wins lost due to injury for the second season in a row, the Jazz are a genuine 50+ win team and possible smokey to challenge the Rockets for the 2nd seed in the West.

O/U Prediction: Over

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