Portland Trailblazers: What's going right and wrong
Last updated: Nov 14, 2019, 5:22AM | Published: Nov 13, 2019, 4:27AMThis image is a derivative of Portland Trailblazers by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)
*Stats and team records updated through to 13th November, 2019*
Star players put up big numbers in losses all of the time.
Damian Lillard has scored 50+ points seven times now and only won four of those games. But when he's scoring 60 points while the rest of the team contributes 55 in a 115-119 loss to the Brooklyn Nets, you begin to think that the Portland Trail Blazers have a problem.
They are 4-6 through ten games this season without playing a particularly tough schedule. The four-game losing streak has been snapped, but an overtime win over the Atlanta Hawks isn't enough to wipe away the loss to the Golden State Warriors - basketball-recerence.com's 28th ranked team in the league.
Contemplating Portland's championship chances before the season tipped off, CJ McCollum talked them up:
"It's ours for the taking. I mean, if we start this season off the way we know we can, and then we get Nurk Fever back? There's no telling where this team can go."
Well, they've not started the season the way they know they can, and Jusuf Nurkic isn't back for months. As we begin to talk about where this team can go, the NBA Finals doesn't receive much of a mention.
What's Going Right?
Averaging a career-high in minutes, Lillard's 33 points while shooting 49.3% from the field and 39.2% from beyond the arc with 5.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists are MVP-like numbers if Portland's record is ever good enough for him to be considered.
The Blazers play with a 111.6 offensive rating with Lillard on the court while managing a measly 94.8 points per 100 possessions when he's off it. And despite Portland's poor 4-6 start, Lillard leads the league in win shares with 2.2 and is only behind Giannis Antetokounmpo in value over replacement.
Everything revolves around Lillard, and right now, he's playing some of the best basketball of his career.
So, as you'd expect, Lillard is one thing going right for the Blazers.
While his backcourt mate CJ McCollum isn't playing well right now, his sub-standard start to the season can be twisted into a good thing too. The Blazers have managed a 110.6 offensive rating with McCollum on the floor despite being far from his best.
The 28-year old's shooting is off-target with his 39.1% from the field and 30.8% from deep the worst numbers of his career. However, we can somewhat safely assume McCollum will recapture his shot and move closer to his career numbers of 45.3% from the field and 39.9% from three-point range sooner rather than later. He's an All-Star calibre talent and will bounce back.
The second-most influential player in the team is putting up awful numbers and the Blazers are keeping afloat. The room for improvement is a positive sign.
While we can anticipate Lillard will continue to dominate and McCollum will find form, we can't guarantee wins will follow.
Too much is going wrong elsewhere for the backcourt duo to carry the Blazers to the playoffs at the moment.
<ad>
What's Going Wrong?
There are a few things to get through...
First of all, the Blazers traded away the continuity they had developed over the previous four years. They let Al-Farouq Aminu leave while trading Evan Turner for Kent Bazemore and brought in Hassan Whiteside at the expense of Mo Harkless and Myers Leonard.
Now, Aminu, Turner, Harkless and Leonard aren't big names that can turn a franchise on their own, but Bazemore and Whiteside aren't either.
Cohesion continues to be an underrated aspect of constructing a team. The Blazers traded away what they had for a decidedly average player on the wing, and a risky personality plenty around the league have chosen to avoid despite being on the block long before finally being traded.
Second is injuries. The injury to Zach Collins, in particular, highlights the cost of the traded cohesion.
The left labrum injury that will keep Collins out for four months - if not the rest of the season - has uncovered just how much the Blazers lost when trading away players familiar with the franchise, the roster, and its systems.
<ad>
Per Basketball-reference.com, Rodney Hood has played 51% of his minutes at power forward. He's even logged some (3%) at centre.
The 34-year old Anthony Tolliver has spent 27% of his limited minutes at centre, 60% of Mario Hezonja's minutes have been at power forward while Bazemore has also filled in there at times.
As a result of the injuries and lack of cohesion they've exposed among the reshuffles, the Blazers' 109.3 defensive rating ranks 20th in the NBA. They're giving up 114.6 points per game (23rd) and their 12th ranked 108.9 offensive rating isn't scoring enough to make up for it.
When you've got a block-hungry big that can't defend the perimeter and two guards, that while capable defensively, focus their energy on the offensive end, it's important to be strong defensively on the wings.
The Blazers are not.
Or, not anymore.
Again, the loss of Aminu and Harkless along with Nurkic's injury have really hurt the Blazers and those in their place have been unable to replicate their production on the defensive end.
There are questions around effort in defence some players can address themselves. The healing of injuries will go a long way to fixing the defence too. But will it all be too late?
It may already be time for the Blazers to start making phone calls.
Where Too From Here?
The general consensus in Blazers circles is that the front office needs to make a move. They can't sit back and wait for Nurkic to return and hope that he produces straight away while also successfully working alongside Whiteside. Collins is great, but he's not the missing piece of this messy puzzle.
Improving the team via trade is Portland's best option, and with the second-highest payroll in the league, they don't have a lot of flexibility.
A few targets jump out, though.
Kevin Love: You can't talk about the Blazers making a trade without first mentioning Kevin Love. While he's not going to significantly improve what is a below-par defence, he's exactly what the Blazers need on the offensive end. Desperate for a reliable stretch-four that can draw the attention of the defence and provide Lillard and McCollum with a consistent and reliable third option, a call to Cleveland is a must if it hasn't been made already.
Potential Deal: Love ($28,942,830) for Bazemore ($19,269,662), Labissiere ($2,338,847) and Little ($2,105,520).
Andre Iguodala: He's not going to pile up the points and fill the box score every night, but Andre Iguodala can provide valuable experience and consistency on the wing. On the defensive end, in particular. Currently twiddling his thumbs in Memphis waiting to be either traded or a buyout, Iggy's expiring contract is available.
Potential Deal: Iguodala ($17,185,185) for Bazemore ($19,269,662).
Draymond Green: It's unlikely, but the Blazers would be doing themselves a disservice by not at least making an enquiry about Draymond Green. He is the perfect player for what they need: Defence and ball-movement. Green can't be traded until February 2nd which may be too late for the Blazers.
Futures Projection
The Stats Insider Model is almost completely out on the Blazers. They are way down the list of potential NBA champions with just a 1.6% chance of winning the title.
Some would argue 1.6% is generous.
The Blazers were always going to be heavily dependent on their backcourt, and any injuries to the frontcourt had the potential to be crippling. It's all going wrong in a season everything needs to go right if they're to be part of the championship conversation.
Lillard will do his thing and we will more than likely have the debate about how many wins a player needs to have to be eligible for the MVP later in the season. It's unlikely we're debating their championship chances, though. That one is almost over already.
RELATED: How the Miami Heat have scorched back into NBA competitiveness
Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.