SI Championship Rankings: Clippers Steady as Bucks Charge
Last updated: Dec 19, 2019, 1:39AM | Published: Dec 18, 2019, 11:38PM
The good old "it's still early" excuse to explain away poor first-half performances doesn't fly anymore. We're over a quarter of the way through the 2019-20 NBA season and the good teams are separating themselves from the bad.
While the LA Clippers still top Stats Insider's Championship Rankings, the gap has closed since we last checked in on the title probabilities with the Milwaukee Bucks making up the most ground.
NBA Futures: Championship Probabilities Updated Daily
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That Stats Insider computers will continue to compute the available data all season long, updating the NBA Championship Futures projections daily, with its nourishing, ‘gut-feel’-free diet providing readers with an excellent insight into how the season might play out.
Each month we'll check in on all 30 teams to see how each is shaping up.
LA Clippers
NBA Championship Win: 22.7%
Paul George has joined Kawhi Leonard since the last rankings update and hasn't wasted any time getting into the groove. He's averaging 24.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists with a 55.7% effective field goal percentage. The Clippers are 14-3 with him in the lineup. There have been a few teething issues for sure, but for every unexpected loss, the Clippers play the sort of game that reminds the rest of the NBA that this team has more potential than any other.
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With Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams battling it out for Sixth Man of the Year honours, Patrick Beverly being a pest and Landry Shamet slotting in nicely, the Clippers are the understandable favourites for the NBA championship.
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA Championship Win: 22.4%
Do they engrave names on Most Valuable Player trophies? If they do, start putting Giannis Antetokounmpo's on there now.
His 31.7 points, 12.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists have led the Bucks to a 24-4 record and the 1st seed in the East. What's scary for the rest of the league is 'The Greek Freak' is starting to get a few shots up from beyond the arc, hitting at a respectable 32.1%. If he can get that up to the league average of 35.6%, we're all in trouble.
MORE: The Milwaukee Bucks Are Building a Juggernaut
Los Angeles Lakers
NBA Championship Win: 21.8%
No team is having more fun this season than the Lakers, and it has translated into a 24-4 record.
LeBron James is thriving in his self-appointed 'revenge season' and dominating alongside Defensive Player of the Year favourite, Anthony Davis. The pair are proving to be lethal in the pick and roll, with their size and skill too much for defenses to handle. Despite both their offensive and defensive rating sitting inside the top five in the league, the Lakers still appear to be cruising.
Philadelphia 76ers
It hasn't been smooth sailing for the 76ers to start the season, but a recent 9-1 run has put them back in the conversation for the 1st seed in the East. They're doing it on the back of their fourth-ranked 103.7 defense. Allowing the opposition to score just 104.1 points per game, the 76ers are doing enough on the defensive end to make up for their somewhat disappointing 109.0 offensive rating (15th).
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Houston Rockets
The 45.7 three-point attempts per game won't do it for everybody, but the Rockets are knocking down enough to keep in touch with the top teams in the Western Conference.
James Harden is putting up simply ridiculous numbers. His 38.9 points per game tops the league, while he's adding six rebounds and 7.4 assists amongst his 25.1 field goal attempts. With Russell Westbrook starting to look more comfortable carving out his role, we might see Houston's championship percentage bumped up a little further this time next month.
MORE: The Continuous Conundrum of the Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the quiet achievers so far this season. As the real "team nobody is talking about," they've spent the first quarter of the season in the top four in the West and have done so while Nikola Jokic plays well short of his best. One night, the Serbian looks like the All-Star we know he can be while leading the Nuggets to an impressive victory. Other nights, he looks sluggish and out of shape. Provided Jokic can improve his match fitness and begin to produce more consistent performances like he has been recently, the Nuggets should be encouraged by their 17-8 start.
Boston Celtics
Gordon Hayward's injury threatened to derail Boston's hot 8-1 start to the season, but they kept their head above water with a 9-4 record while he was out. Now 17-7 and three games into Hayward's latest return, the Celtics are looking to make a run at the 76ers for the 2nd seed in the East. Kemba Walker showed why the Celtics were so eager to sign him by coming up big in Hayward's absence. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continued their development, with Brown, in particular, standing out given the added opportunity. They are sneaky good and back in the hunt for the East following a below-par 2018-19 season.
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Dallas Mavericks
'Luka mania' has been put on hold with 20-year old Luka Doncic forced to nurse a sprained ankle for at least two weeks. Doncic has been incredible to start 2019-20. His 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists are better than anybody could have imagined, and has propelled the Mavericks into the group of elite teams atop the Western Conference (18-8). The challenge will be to stay there while Doncic is out, with Kristaps Porzingis still struggling for consistency in his return from ACL surgery.
READ: Can Doncic Make the Mavericks Legitimate Contenders?
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have done more than remain competitive in the wake of Kawhi Leonard's departure to Los Angeles. They've used an 11-3 home record to sit 18-8 for the season and 5th in the East. Remarkably, Pascal Siakam is in the hunt for back-to-back Most Improved Player awards. He has become a bonafide All-Star calibre player to average 25 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.
MORE: How the Toronto Raptors are Defying Post-Kawhi Expectations
Utah Jazz
A disappointing start to the season has put the Jazz under a little bit of pressure early on. However, they have a run of 18 games with just three opposing teams playing above-500 basketball to dig themselves out of the hole.
The Jazz wishes Mike Conley's injury presented a significant issue. Instead, they carried on as usual without him; such is his lack of impact throughout his first two months with the franchise. The injury did allow Joe Ingles to start and find some form, though. Despite an emotional fan base thinking as much, it's not panic stations for the Jazz just yet.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are one of the slower-paced teams in the league, while only the Spurs have a lower three-point attempt rate. Nonetheless, a 19-9 record is good for 6th in the East and the makings of another successful season for the franchise. In Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, the Pacers have developed a decent core that looks set to cause some of the more established teams in the conference an issue or two throughout the playoffs.
Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler is the big name the franchise revolves around, but any success comes down to Bam Adebayo. His Siakam-like third-year rise is why the Heat have been able to exceed their early-season expectations to be 19-8. The 22-year old is averaging 15.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game while currently third in defensive win shares. In the top ten in both offensive (110.7) and defensive (105.8) rating, the Heat have a platform to build on and will no doubt be making calls on potential trades to take the next step.
Portland Trail Blazers
You know things are getting desperate when a team is forced to bring in a 35-year-old former star who played just ten games before being sent home last season. Well, that's the position the Trail Blazers were in, and despite a charitable Player of the Week award early on, little has changed since Carmelo Anthony's arrival. They are 6-7 with him in the lineup to still be on the outside looking in at the playoff seeds in the West at 11-16.
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Brooklyn Nets
Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie are combining for 49.9 points per game and quietly becoming one of the most lethal backcourts in the NBA. The pair have propelled the Nets to a 15-12 record following their lacklustre 4-6 start to the season. Their 17th and 14th offensive and defensive ratings keep the Nets from truly competing in the East, but they are displaying promising signs for the future.
New Orleans Pelicans
There hasn't been a more disappointing team to start the 2019-20 season. Currently riding a 13-game losing streak towards Christmas, the Pelicans have been terrible. Playing without Zion Williamson doesn't excuse their 6-22 record through 28 games.
San Antonio Spurs
The 22-season playoff streak is in grave danger. At 10-16 through 26 games, the Spurs are in a deep hole and it doesn't look like Gregg Popovich will be able to pull them out this time around. Zigging towards the mid-range while the rest of the league zags away is telling. No team shoots more from the mid-range than San Antonio's 24.9 attempts per game.
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Detroit Pistons
The 9th-ranked 110.2 offensive rating will come as a surprise to most. What won't, though, is the below .500 record the Pistons are playing with through 27 games. It's looking like another season on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Pistons.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and rely on their defense to keep them in games. For the most part, it's enough to consistently beat the teams below or around them in the standings. They can't keep up with the big boys scoring 103.5 points per game, though.
Phoenix Suns
It will come as a shock to nobody outside of Phoenix, but the 5-2 start to the season was a classic early-season overachievement by a struggling franchise. It happens every season. Since then, the Suns have gone 6-14 to begin tail spinning out of playoff contention. Will Deandre Ayton returning from his suspension help? History suggests it probably won't.
Atlanta Hawks
Another team dealing with a front-court suspension, the sun has all but set on the young Hawks' hopes of playoff basketball. At 6-22 for the season and with just two wins in their last 18 games, the Hawks are one of the worst teams in the NBA, despite offering a few reasons to be optimistic at the backend of last season. Their 104.7 offensive rating ranks 27th. The 114.5 defensive rating is worse still at 28th.
Chicago Bulls
Nobody can wrap their heads around the Bulls. Least of all their coach, Jim Boylan. The players are working against him, they can't close out games and have flat out ignored him at times. With so much talent on the roster in the form of Zach LaVine, Wendell Carter Jr, Coby White and Lauri Markannen, the Bulls should be far more competitive in the East.
Golden State Warriors
Much to the delight of the 29 other NBA fan bases, the Warriors (5-23) stink. They've been the most talked about team of the last five years, and now, the Warriors are being flexed out of national tv games due to their 30th ranked 103.8 offensive rating being barely watchable. Even if Steph Curry returns this season, the greatest shooter of all time will have a tough job lifting the Warriors off the bottom of the league in effective field goal percentage (48.3).
Minnesota Timberwolves
Things were looking up for the Timberwolves at 10-8. Andrew Wiggins, in particular, appeared to have turned the corner. However, a seven-game losing streak since then now has the Timberwolves at 11th in the West and struggling to keep within touching distance of the playoffs. Karl-Anthony Towns is dropping 26.5 points, 11.7 rebounds and 4.4 assist while shooting an impressive 41.8% from beyond the arc on 8.5 attempts per game to lead the offense. It's their 23rd-ranked 112.6 defensive rating they can't overcome at the moment.
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Who thought we would be here talking about the Thunder as a potential playoff team at 12-14 for 7th in the West, leading into Christmas? The veteran presence of Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari is gelling well with the likes of Steven Adams, Shai Gilgious-Alexander, Dennis Schroeder and Terrance Ferguson. This team isn't great, more pleasantly average. Basketball-Reference.com measures them closer to average than any other team in the league.
Sacramento Kings
Awful to start the season going 0-5, the Kings have bounced back well to be 12-15 as they begin to get healthy. We should finally get an idea of what this team can be with Marvin Bagley III and De'Aaron Fox recently returning to the lineup.
Charlotte Hornets
For what the Hornets lack in skill in 2019-20, they make it up in potential, intrigue, and excitement. Devonte' Graham is one of the most interesting players in the NBA right now as he attempts to stake a claim on the Most Improved Player award.
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Meanwhile, PJ Washington has displayed promising signs as a weapon from beyond the arc. Add the craziness Terry Rozier can bring to a game and the athleticism of Miles Bridges, and you've got yourself a below .500 League Pass favourite.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love is back on the trade block again and other senior players have put their hands up to get on there too. The Cavaliers don't know what they're doing as they try to mix experienced NBA players into a rebuild centred around Collin Sexton, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. Their 6-22 record tells the story better than any alleged rift between players and coaches.
Memphis Grizzlies
A murderer in the air with bodies already piling up, Ja Morant is dunking his way to Rookie of the Year honours while keeping the Grizzlies relatively competitive in the West at 10-17. Morant's 18.8 points and 6.5 assists lead the way, with Jaren Jackson starting to find his feet for 17.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game.
New York Knicks
It has been the most Knicks-like of seasons so far. After flunking out in free agency, it's no surprise to see the scraps they did manage to gather struggle to gel. They've since fired coach David Fizdale - as if he was the problem - with the change unlikely to have much of an impact on their offense or defense which both rank in the bottom five in the NBA.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards may be 8-17 and no chance of reaching the playoffs, but they are at least a fun team to get behind. Bradley Beal offers up regular reminders that he is a top player in this league while Davis Bertans has announced himself as an elite shooter. They don't have an issue on the offensive end where they are somehow sandwiched between the Rockets and Lakers for 4th in the league. It's the 30th-ranked defensive rating holding them back.
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