The NBA All-Star break is commonly referred to as "the halfway point" despite 15 of the 30 teams left with just 26 or 27 games to play in 2019-20. Only two teams are truly halfway through their season and we won't know who they are until June. 

In the meantime, the Stats Insider Futures model has crunched the numbers to see which team is most likely to be halfway through a championship-winning season.

NBA Futures: Championship Probabilities Updated Daily

WHAT'S LEFT? 3 Questions Still To Be Answered This NBA Season

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The Contenders

The Golden State Warriors era is over and the league has moved from super teams to superstar duos. As a result, the 2019-20 NBA season is one of the most open in recent memory. We can still confidently whittle the 30 teams down to six genuine contenders, though.

LA Clippers (25.7%)

The LA Clippers don't have the best record in the NBA, nor do they consistently perform the way championship favourites should. Nevertheless, the  Stats Insider Model has them at the top of the pile when looking at which team has the best chance of winning the NBA Finals.

The feeling is that we're yet to see the Clippers anywhere near their best.

They lost three of their last four games heading into the All-Star break. Yes, two of those losses came against the 76ers and Celtics on the road, but the 28-point thrashing at the hands of the Timberwolves was alarming. 

Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are starting to play together regularly, though. The pair being out through injury or rest has so far limited them to just 572 minutes on the court together. The relative unknown of how the two will play alongside each other is why the Clippers have avoided the panic other favourites may have faced in a similar position.

The numbers they've produced in the small sample size help, too.

The Clippers play with a 113.6 offensive rating and 104.0 defensive rating when George and Leonard share the floor. Both numbers rank 2nd in the NBA when put against all 30 teams in the league. The pair will be playing close to 40 minutes per game by the time the playoffs roll around. Most of those minutes will be together.

While the Clippers may not look their best right now, their ceiling remains higher than any other. 

Milwaukee Bucks (23.5%)

The Bucks continue to impress this season. 

Their 48-8 record is the best in the NBA and they've achieved it with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing 10 games, Khris Middleton missing 11 games, and Eric Bledsoe missing 12 games.

Antetokounmpo (37.7%), Middleton (25.6%) and Bledsoe (24.2%) are Milwaukee's three most high-usage players, but when one of them goes down, another player on the roster steps up.

Their depth is what has surprised people this season.

Donte 'the big ragu' DiVincenzo has chipped in nicely for his 9.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Brook Lopez isn't knocking them down from beyond the arc quite like he was last season, but his 4.9 Defensive Box Plus/Minus is only behind Antetokounmpo on the Bucks roster. Meanwhile, Pat Connaughton adds another defensive presence off the bench for his 2.6 DBPM (3rd). 

With George Hill, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Ersan Ilyasova and Robin Lopez, the Bucks run deep with reliable performers.

Antetokounmpo is the odds-on favourite to win his second Most Valuable Player award with 30 points, 13.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. He's the most dominant player in the game today. The 'Greek Freak' surrounded by a deep and productive roster justifies their 2nd spot in the futures rankings.

Los Angeles Lakers (19.3%)

They have a better record and produce better performances more consistently, but the Lakers trail the Clippers here.

Unlike their city rivals, the purple and gold's superstar duo regularly play together. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have spent over twice as much time on the court than PG and Kawhi have this season.

James and Davis have produced a 113.5 offensive rating and 103.2 defensive rating in the 1,129 minutes they've played together. As a team, the Lakers' offensive rating ranks 2nd in the NBA scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions while the defensive rating is 5th at 106.3.

There is little doubt that come playoff time, James and AD's usage rates will increase on their current 31.5% and 29.2%. From there, the shooting and defense of the supporting cast will determine how far the Lakers go.

In Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green and Avery Bradley, the Lakers have three perimeter players all shooting over 37% from beyond the arc on a combined 10.3 attempts per game. Meanwhile, Kyle Kuzma can catch fire despite his pedestrian 33.2% three-point shooting.

Caldwell-Pope and Bradley are also reputable perimeter defenders, while the combination of JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard down low has worked wonders this season. 

Plenty doubted the makeup of the Lakers roster before the season tipped off. Now, they're happy enough that 'GM James' didn't even make a move at the trade deadline.

The Lakers don't have the depth of the Bucks, or the quality of the Clippers supporting cast, but James and Davis are the best one-two punch in the NBA. They'll be in the mix until the end of May.

Philadelphia 76ers (5.2%)

Philly's 34-21 record ranks just 10th in the NBA, but the Stats Insider futures model puts them on the fourth line to win the championship.

Like the Clippers, it's the potential for improvement that puts them here.

If we're looking at where the 76ers are sitting in relation to their ceiling, they're in the basement. As one of the pre-season favourites for the Eastern Conference Championship, the 76ers aren't even in a position to take home-court advantage into the first round of the playoffs if they started today.

Without the home-court, the 76ers are seemingly done. They've won just one of their 12 games on the road against teams above .500. Their 9-19 record away from Wells Fargo Centre is the same as the lowly New York Knicks.

However, their 4th-ranked defense keeps them relevant in the championship conversation while an anticipated improvement on their 20th-ranked 108.4 offensive rating offers hope for the future.

The players are there.

Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Al Horford, Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson might be the best lineup in the NBA on paper. It's getting them all on the same page that is proving the issue — Embiid and Simmons, in particular. But, with Furkan Korkmaz catching fire from deep of late, some crafty trade deadline deals bringing in noted floor spacers and wing defenders in Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III, and the experiment of moving Horford to the second unit to provide more room down low for Embiid, the potential of massive improvement is certainly there.

If the 76ers can become a more well-rounded and cohesive unit, they'll justify their current position in the futures rankings. 

Houston Rockets (4.2%)

The Rockets are always prepared to try something new to get ahead of the opposition.

Going incredibly small is their latest experiment.

It worked against the Lakers when they started Russell Westbrook (6'3"), James Harden (6'5"), Eric Gordon (6'3"), Danuel House (6'6") with PJ Tucker (6'5") at center. However, Westbrook needed to score 41 points to beat the Lakers 121-111 that night.

It didn't work so well - albeit without Westbrook - when they were on the end of a 36-point thrashing by the Phoenix Suns the next time out. 

The Rockets are 2-2 since embracing the small-ball and to add a little more optimism to its potential success, they've achieved that with Harden playing well below his best. 

It's difficult to see the Rockets competing with the Lakers, Clippers, or even the Nuggets and Jazz, in a seven-game series. They're relying on their three-point shot (which has killed them before) and an untested lineup configuration to get them through to June.

The Rockets are a long-shot for the championship and could well drop in these rankings before the end of the regular season.

Utah Jazz (3.4%)

The Jazz have had an up and down season. It was only two months ago that the panic button had taken a hammering  and some fans were demanding it all to be blown up. 

They're 23-7 while playing with an NBA-best 117.5 offensive rating since then, though.

Rudy Gobert has finally been recognised as the All-Star he is, while Donovan Mitchell has taken another small leap to average 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. Joe Ingles has bounced back following his slow start, Royce O'Neale has been outstanding defensively, and Bojan Bogdanovic is an excellent complimentary piece to Gobert and Mitchell.

They have proven they can score with the best teams in the NBA for periods and their defense can always be relied upon. If Mike Conley can become Mike Conley again, the Jazz are a championship smokey.

The Troublemakers

While we can confidently narrow down the eventual champion to one of six teams, four others are in a position to trouble them along the way. 

The Denver Nuggets (3.1%) have been hovering around the top teams in the West for a little while now, but they're missing something. Jrue Holiday is the sort of player the Nuggets need to get their hands on to compete for the title. In the meantime, they have a superstar in Nikola Jokic and home-court through to the conference finals (for now) to cause a few post-season problems.

There were talks of the Toronto Raptors (3.1%) embracing a rebuild following Leonard's departure. Instead, they're 40-15 for second in the East and have just peeled off 15 wins in a row. They don't have the superstar to win back-to-back championships, but they do have Pascal Siakam, depth and an excellent defense to push any team in the playoffs.

Similar to the Raptors, the Boston Celtics (2.5%) were a tough team to get a read on once Kyrie Irving left. Kemba Walker made for an ideal replacement, but uncertainty over Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown made it difficult to set expectations. The pair have since produced career-best numbers to accelerate the re-opening of Boston's championship window. It won't open wide enough to win it this season. However, they'll take 'the team nobody wants to play' tag into the playoffs.

Or will that tag go to the Miami Heat (2.5%)? Marquee recruit, Jimmy Butler, has been incredible for coach Eric Spoelstra and the Heat this season. He's the perfect leader for a team that can scheme for any other in the league. They can grit and grind, shoot the lights out, and play big or small. It's only a lack of experience and another reliable go-to scorer that will let them down in the post-season.

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