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Stats and Trends: Defining the Modern NBA

We’re now nearly a fifth of the way through what has already emerged as an intoxicating NBA season.

The demise of the Golden State Warriors has ushered in a league with an array of new championship contenders, as long and varied as we’ve seen in quite some time.

The 'Association' also has a decidedly different feel from a superstar player point of view, with the likes of second-year phenom, Luka Doncic, and reigning NBA MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, taking their games to entirely new levels this season.

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An added benefit of being more than a month into the season is that we can begin to examine some of the statistical themes and trends that are presently defining the league.

Here are just a few.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING IS THE NBA'S OFFICIAL RELIGION

You don’t a need a private investigator to tell you the game of basketball - at the very highest level - has changed significantly in recent years.

Not only have various athletic types from different geographical backgrounds infiltrated the NBA, but increasingly, analytical front offices have laid roots and are having a major impact on how the game is played.

One of the chief footprints of the NBA’s analytical revolution has been the explosion of three-point shooting across the league.

Each season we witness a significant uptick in the amount of taken - and made - three-point shots, with the very nature of the game changing dramatically, pivoting toward a perimeter-orientated sport, as opposed to it’s post-play-dominated former self.

A big motivator behind the exponential increase in three-point shooting has been a broader array of better exponents of the skill, however it's been able to flourish because front offices and coaches have increasingly given the green light based on the shot proving far more efficient and valuable to the now largely-ignored long, contested two-point jumpshot.

The adoption of the three-point shot as the NBA’s 'official religion' has been aided by the dizzying success some of the best shooting teams in history have enjoyed in recent times.

When the San Antonio Spurs won their fifth NBA Championship in 2014 off the back of their ‘Jogo Bonito' style of basketball - SAS led the league with 25.2 assists per game that season - it was also in large part because of their sublime shooting as a team unit, hitting a league-best 39.7% of their three-point shots. That number jumped to an incredible 46.6% during the 2014 NBA Finals, playing a major role in denying LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat a third consecutive NBA title.

The Golden State Warriors grabbed the spirit of the three-point shot, taking it to new heights over the ensuing years under both Marc Jackson and Steve Kerr, holding the mantle as the game’s premier three-point shooting team, riding the historically excellent hot-hands of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and later, Kevin Durant, to five straight NBA Finals appearances, winning three championships in that period.

Last season’s historic Toronto Raptors NBA Championship - achieved in large part because of Kawhi Leonard’s preposterous post-season exploits - were also aided by their three-point excellence, hitting the long-ball at 36.6% which was the NBA’s sixth best mark, while this season, the Raptors have backed up that particular excellence, shooting at a league-best 39.3% - a major factor behind their impressive 12-4 start. 

RELATED: How the Toronto Raptors are Defying Post-Kawhi Expectations

SHARING IS CARING

There’s something extremely beautiful about the sport of basketball, with its speed, athleticism and profound skills taking place in such a relatively confined space.

For such an, at times, claustrophobic sport, there’s something comforting about the imperative of teamwork in the context of team success, with the modern NBA proving to be an environment where ball movement and spacing is as important as ever.

While, as mentioned above, in recent seasons we’ve seen the three-point shot unlock an era of profound success, we’ve also seen the unwavering and increasing importance of a team's ability to move the ball around the perimeter quickly and accurately.

Often forgotten amid the Golden State Warriors' illustrious shooting in recent years is that they were also the #1 assist team through their five consecutive NBA Finals seasons, with head coach, Steve Kerr, installing the type of pass-first offense which he very much inherited - as both a player and assistant coach - under Gregg Popovich in San Antonio.

Front offices and coaches are increasingly preferring their team place a premium on ball movement, which not only works to stretch opposition defenses, but helps their team arrive at a much more efficient shot.

Critics point to the Houston Rockets' failure to convert their excellent recent body of regular-season work into anything meaningful come playoff time, as being something of the antithesis of team basketball, with James Harden’s ball monopolisation not helping the cause.

While the Rockets have been able to post gaudy win totals in recent years - as well as Harden claiming an NBA MVP - Houston have repeatedly failed to achieve liftoff in the playoffs, with more sophisticated defenses able to curtail Harden’s one-man show in a multi-game playoff series'.

This season is providing further evidence as to the importance of sharing the ball, with the Phoenix Suns being a perfect example. 

Under new head coach, Monty Williams, the Suns are presently occupying a playoff spot after nine seasons on the outside looking in.

READ: The Driving Force Behind the Phoenix Suns' Hot Start

67.3% of Phoenix’s made field goals this season have arrived courtesy of an assist, which is the league’s #1 mark in this metric, up significantly from the 59.5% they posted last season. 

And, what of Harden and the Rockets? Only the Portland Trail Blazers (48%) are fairing worse than the Houston's poor 53.2% mark this season.

RELATED: What's going right - and wrong - for the Portland Trail Blazers?

THE NEED FOR SPEED

Another product of the analytics revolution, most characterised by the avalanche of three-point shooting, has been the surge of teams playing at a breakneck speed. 

The modern NBA game has significantly more possessions resulting in much larger scores.

A major reason behind the modern NBA’s thrilling increase in pace is also associated with the rise of three-point shooting, and the increasing importance of team-orientated basketball. 

Franchises are increasingly cognisant of speed being the enemy of opposing defenses, not allowing them comfort in their zone setup while providing the offense with more efficient shots.

The Warriors took 'speed basketball' to another level, often happy to play without a traditional big man at the centre position for long periods of time in order to pit smaller, mobile lineups against their larger, slower opponents who weren't able to get up and down the court as quickly.

The modern NBA can sometimes feel like it’s being played in fast-forward, which is very much altering the way the sport is understood and appreciated, compared to previous eras while having a massive effect on the way we interpret the baseline statistics as well.

Metrics such as 'points per game' and 'turnovers' are now being understood very differently, with raw, cumulative information now being replaced by analysing the totality of the game through the context of what happens over 100 possessions.

The Milwaukee Bucks are a prime example of a team who plays at break-neck speed, reaping the rewards of their athleticism at play. The Bucks are generating an NBA-high 105.5 possessions per 48 minutes of game-time, which is a big reason as to why their 120.3 points per game lead the league, and why they’re able to put up 40.5 three-point attempts per night.

NBA FORM GUIDE: Milwaukee Are 'Freak'-ing Good

The Bucks, led by the phenomenal talents of perhaps the most athletic basketballer to ever play the game, Giannis Antetokounmpo, have been successfully able to design a style of play built around the team's all-round high-level athleticism, last year winning an NBA-high 60 games - and qualifying for the Eastern Conference Finals - and this year, jumping out to a 17-3 start which is a record bettered only by the Los Angels Lakers' 17-3, Lebron James-Anthony Davis fuelled record.

READ: Championship or Bust for the LA Lakers in 2019-20?

SIZE DOESN'T MATTER...

When people think of the sport of basketball their minds often gravitate towards incredible height and slam dunks, and are quick to overlook the players whose physiques are more associated with that of soccer players, or even jockeys.

Two-time MVP winner, Steve Nash, very much helped change the perception of what a modern NBA player looks like, with his exquisite passing and elite shooting playing a massive role on a Phoenix Suns team which was very much an instigator of what the modern game has become.

Steph Curry took the theme even further, proving that a relatively 'small' guy can not only find a place in the modern NBA, but become one of its all-time best, indeed being at the forefront of a Warriors team which will go down as one of the greatest the sport has ever produced.

The likes of Nash and Curry have changed the NBA forever, with franchises less likely to overlook size, with the likes of Trae Young and Ja Morant being taken with picks #6 and #2 over the last two NBA drafts, while instantly having profound impacts upon the Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies franchises respectively.

In fact, teams are increasingly opting for smaller, lighter teams which will enable them to execute their three-point obsession, with off the charts spacing and pace becoming more prevalent.

The move towards smaller lineups has meant teams are rarely going with traditional power forward-center combinations on court, with examples such as the Indiana Pacers starting Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner together, or the Philadelphia 76ers going with Joel Embiid and Al Horford, now more of the exception rather than the rule.

READ: What's Wrong With The Philadelphia 76ers?

... AND DEFENSE STILL DOES

It’s one of sports most overused, however salient, clichés, but defense really does win championships.

And this is particularly true in the modern NBA. In an era when so much emphasis has been placed on offensive innovation, one constant has been that if you can’t stop what the other team is doing, you’ll have very little chance at winning consistently.

While the Golden State Warriors indeed were the team of the decade, making five straight NBA Finals and claiming three championships, it is easy to forget that underpinning their success was a stone-cold commitment to team defense.

While the Warriors lacked size, often deploying 6'7 forward Draymond Green at center, what they didn’t lack was width and length, with the likes of Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguadola among some of the NBA’s most accomplished defenders. Steph Curry, too, was a perennial league-leader in steals, while their more traditional big men such as Andrew Bogut and Zaza Pachulia could always be relied upon to play walk on roles as elite rim protectors.

In recent seasons, Kawhi Leonard, has emerged as one of the NBA's very best players not just because of what he provides of offense, but equally because of his highly disruptive brand of defense, which also earned him the moniker, 'Klaw.' 

This season, after six straight years without a playoff appearance, the Los Angeles Lakers have surged to the NBA's best record, thanks largely to the league's pre-eminent defense, aided, of course, by having LeBron James and Anthony Davis share the court as teammates. 

The combined record of the league’s 12 worst defenses sits at a simply awful 71-159, which translates to a 31% win rate. Conversely, the combined record of the league's 12 best defenses sits at a startling 156-68, representing a 69% winning clip.

LA CLIPPERS: Kawhi, PG & the NBA's Best Supporting Cast
DALLAS MAVERICKS: Can Doncic Make the Mavs Genuine Contenders?

*** Statistics current up to Monday 3rd December, 2019

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James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.

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