Steph Curry Is Even More Valuable Than You Think

Just three weeks ago, Klay Thompson hit 14 threes in a game and the Golden State Warriors looked unbeatable. Despite this 14th made three breaking teammate Steph Curry's record, everybody was happy for each other. 

As a unit, they appeared to be the perfect team; dominant on the court and like brothers off it. 

A Curry groin injury later, and the Warriors are struggling to keep their foothold on the Western Conference. The locker room blew up enough that Steve Kerr was forced to suspend Draymond Green for one game, and he is now sitting out games with an apparent toe injury.

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The last fortnight has been a trainwreck by Warriors standards. Before their last two wins, they lost four in a row and six of eight for the worst stretch in a season since Kerr took over. 

Much to the delight of every other fanbase, you could hear a pin drop in Oracle Arena in the fourth quarter against the Thunder last week. It's not only the players that are struggling; the fans don't quite know how to react either.

Where Warriors fans can take solace is in the fact Curry has managed to strengthen his case for a third MVP award while sitting in the stands. He's clearly the most valuable player on what many expect to still end up as the best team in the NBA this season, and perhaps in the history of the league.

It's taken a little while, but Curry is getting the respect and recognition he's always deserved. 

Perhaps it's due to trawling the depths of NBA Twitter too often, but there's always been a sense going around that Curry is underrated. Or, at least, undervalued. 

His standing as one of the best players in the game today is unquestioned. 

With three NBA championships, two MVP's, five All-Star and two All-NBA First Team appearances along with a plethora of shooting records, Curry's resume speaks for itself. 

However, it's not been enough to see him considered the undisputed key cog to the Warriors' domination. Before this nine-game stretch, many people won't have thought of him as the most important player on arguably the greatest team ever formed. 

The numbers now speak for themselves.

Life Without Curry

As good as the Warriors are, life without Curry is far from rosy. 

In the two seasons and 21 games since Kevin Durant's arrival, the Warriors are 23-21 when he takes the court and Curry doesn't. When Durant sits and Curry plays, they're 25-9. That includes wins in each of the last 21 games Curry has played without Durant. 

In the Kerr era, the Warriors are 254-47 with Curry and 24-23 without him. 

Durant may be the second-best player in the NBA, but Curry is the glue that sticks Golden State's impeccable championship credentials together. 

His influence on the team and the gravitational pull that doesn't allow defenders to even think about slacking off is clear.

For most elite shooters in the league, we talk about spacing and how much of the floor they can open up for others.

It goes a step further for Curry.

His shot has gravity. 

The mere threat of Curry being on the floor is enough to occupy not only the mind of his defender but the four other guys on the floor too. JJ Redick, Eric Gordon and Khris Middleton are all elite three-point shooters that demand special attention, but they don't pull a defence towards them quite like Curry.

When Curry in on the floor, 51% of Golden State's shots as a team are either open (closest defender 4-6 feet away) or wide open (6+ feet). Their 60.3% effective field goal percentage across the two was the second-highest in the NBA before Curry went down. 

In the nine games Curry has missed, only 48.7% of Golden State's shots have been open or wide open with the effective field goal percentage also dropping to 56.6%. The 43.8% of shots they've taken with the closest defender between 2-4 feet while Curry has been out is the most in the NBA. 

The sample size is relatively small, but the on/off-court numbers this season also tell a harrowing story about what things could be like if Curry suffers a serious injury. 

In the 399 minutes Curry has played this season, the Warriors have a plus-118 plus-minus. By the end of their one-point win over the Kings, Curry has now spent 614 minutes off the court for minus-7. 

The Warriors' offensive rating drops from an NBA-best 119.6 to a 27th-ranked 109.2. Meanwhile, the defensive rating rises from 106.1 with Curry on to 109.7 with him off. 

We've seen Kevin Durant do the heavy-lifting to drag his team to victory before, but the two-time NBA Finals MVP has struggled without Curry beside him so far. 

When they share the court, Durant's 59% effective field goal percentage nets him 1.25 points per possession. However, in the 351 minutes Durant has played without Curry beside him, that percentage drops down to 50.5% for 1.13 points per possession. 

The struggles the Warriors face without Curry are real. 

If he was ruled out for an extended period, Kerr and company would no doubt figure something out. But for the time being, the Warriors are vulnerable without the cornerstone of their franchise.

How Punters React

With Curry being somewhat underrated by the masses, his absence has been undervalued in the betting world. 

Durant is still considered the second-best player on the planet despite not being the most important on his own team. Therefore, the Curry-less Warriors still receive plenty of attention on the square side of the ledger. 

Despite the Warriors being 14-24 against the spread without Curry since the beginning of the 2016-17 season, the public still gets behind them when he's out. 

Over this latest nine-game stretch, the percentage of bets against the spread and on the money line have leaned heavily towards the Warriors.

Two, three, four losses in a row, it doesn't matter, the tickets still come in for the Warriors to win the next game regardless. They've only covered the spread in one of their last eight games, but that's unlikely to stop punters from flocking to what could well be an inflated line a ninth time.

READ: Toronto Raptors' Biggest Opponent Might Be Themselves 

We know Curry is the heart and soul of this Warriors team. However, the public will still blindly back a superstar like Durant. Similar to taking the Over, squares bet to their appetite and ultimately want to see Durant drag a Curry-less Warriors team to victory while swallowing the points.

As we've seen over the last two weeks, that victory escapes them more often than not.

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