The 2019/20 NBA Championship Contenders
Last updated: Oct 21, 2019, 9:52PM | Published: Oct 21, 2019, 3:05AMNBA season 2019/20 is finally upon us and it figures to be one of the most exciting and competitive leagues in years.
Not only does the Golden State Warriors’ NBA supremacy appear to be over, but after one of the most tumultuous off-seasons ever seen in professional sport, the entire landscape of the league has altered.
Instead of entering the season with a dominant Warriors squad seeking a fifth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals and a hat trick of titles, we have a competition where more than half the league harbours hopes of having a shot at basketball's biggest prize.
With the league in flux and with so many pundits trying to make sense of the new landscape, the Stats Insider computers have been busy over the off-season, and have identified eight teams with a better than 3% chance of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June.
LA CLIPPERS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 25.8%
The LA Clippers championship favouritism arrives courtesy of the free agency addition of two-time NBA Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard, along with trading for 6-time All-Star, Paul George.
While the Clippers did surrender a staggering five first round draft picks - plus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari to land 'PG,' it does provide them with, on paper at least, the league’s most fearsome one-two punch.
For the Clippers, pairing Leonard and George was reward for years of excellent front office work coupled with the stability, strategy and charisma of head coach, Doc Rivers.
What could work against the Clippers - in the early portion of the season at least - is Paul George’s recovery from off-season shoulder surgery, which could see him miss the season’s’ first month or two. It’ll mean the Clippers will have to grant significant minutes to the likes of rookies Terance Mann or Mfiondu Kabengele, who though highly coveted and promising, are simply a shadow of what George can provide.
George, however, will return, and the Clippers can work on erasing their current five-year streak of failing to advance past the first round of the playoffs, while perhaps even graduating to their first-ever Western Conference Final.
PRE-SEASON STAT: The Clippers lost all three of the their pre-season games against NBA opposition, averaging a league-worst 91.33 points per game in the process.
LA LAKERS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 18.2%
Last year, 3-time NBA champion, LeBron James, took his talents to Hollywood, which was an incredible stroke of luck for the LA Lakers, a team coming off five seasons without playoff basketball, and who’d averaged just 27 wins over that time span.
The Lakers' great fortune continued during this off-season, with New Orleans' Anthony Davis also wanting to call LA home, and, although the trade cost the Lakers a fortune in terms of player personnel and draft capital, the James-Davis tandem promises to get the Lakers within striking distance of record-equaling 17th NBA Championship.
While the Lakers' pre-season was a mixed bag with three wins and three losses, what was most noteworthy was LeBron James playing exclusively at point guard. James averaged 11.4 assists per 36 minutes throughout the pre-season, which was a number bettered only by the Memphis Grizzlies’ Rookie of the Year candidate, Ja Morant (11.9)
PRE-SEASON STAT: The Lakers committed a league-high 127 turnovers throughout the pre-season. It’s a worrying trend considering they turned the ball over on 13.4% of their possessions last season, which was the league’s third-worst mark.
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MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 16.3%
It’s little wonder the Milwaukee Bucks are Eastern Conference favourites and expected to return to the NBA finals for the first time in nearly fifty years. This is a team who was good enough to win 60 games last season, and who brings back the bulk of that squad, including reigning NBA MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
What fuelled the Bucks' NBA-best 60 regular season wins last season, was a multifaceted offense along with the league’s pre-eminent defense which used its height and athleticism to stifle opposition all season long, keeping opponents to a league worst 105.2 points per 100 possessions, while limiting them to a paltry 43.3% field goal percentage.
While Kawhi Leonard's defection from the Toronto Raptors to the Western Conference clears one massive stumbling block for the Bucks, they will also have to work out how to compensate for the loss of Malcolm Brogdon who joined the Indiana Pacers in the off-season. If there’s one weakness on the Bucks team it’s in their backcourt, with Eric Bledsoe struggling mightily throughout the playoffs, and with the likes of Pat Connaughton and Donte DiVincenzo yet to be featured in big minute, big responsibility situations.
PRE-SEASON STAT: Defense continued to be the Bucks' calling card in the pre-season limiting opposition field goal percentage to a league-best 37.7% field goal percentage.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 7.6%
'The Process' seems to be complete, and we can now safely say the long-suffering Philadelphia fans can expect to have a legitimate NBA Championship contender on its hands in season 2019/20.
After years in the competitive wilderness, undertaking one of the most protracted tank-jobs ever seen in professional sport, the Philadelphia 76ers have finally emerged with an extremely good roster that not only features the young, ridiculously talented duo of Joel Embiid and Australia’s Ben Simmons, but will also feature five-time All-Star - and one of the most respected forwards in the NBA - Al Horford.
RELATED: Are The Philadelphia 76ers Genuine NBA Championship Contenders?
The 76ers will be fascinating to watch throughout the season, not only because of their star power, but because they’ve gone all in on size and perimeter defence. The 76ers 53.8 rebounds per game during the pre-season constituted a league-high, as did their 9.8 blocks per game. At a time when the rest of the league is going smaller and putting up more threes than ever before, the 76ers should be applauded for taking such an alternative approach.
How far that approach takes them figures to be one of the most intriguing narratives of the season.
PRE-SEASON STAT: First-round draft pick, Matisse Thybulle, seems like an inspired pick by the 76ers. Only Kawhi Leonard (5.4) averaged more steals per 36 minutes than Thybulle’s 4.9 over the pre-season.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 6.4%
If there’s one thing we’ve learnt about Houston Rockets' GM, Daryl Morey, it’s that he’s incapable of sitting still. While his persistent tinkering has helped the Rockets qualify for seven consecutive post-seasons and three straight trips the Western Conference final four, he has faced continuing criticism for producing teams which are defensively suspect, and, which fail in the post season.
The most recent round of ‘MoreyBall’ has led to 8-time All-Star - and former league MVP - Russell Westbrook, who the Rockets have opted to pair with their own MVP James Harden, in one almighty experiment centred around two players with massive usage rates and who aren’t shy about putting up shots.
While the NBA world will continue to study the Harden-Westbrook tandem, it’s easy to forget that this team is still highly talented, with the likes of PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Clint Capela filling out their projected starting five. While those three all have their deficiencies, they are players every team in the NBA could find a place for, and who’ll continue to be vital if the Rockets are to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1995.
PRE-SEASON STAT: The Rockets picked up from where they left off, averaging a league-best 125.7 points per game throughout the pre-season, with Harden (31.2) and Westbrook (16.2) leading the way.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 3.9%
For the first time in many years, the Golden State Warriors will enter a NBA season without widespread hysteria surrounding their team.
The Warriors team which will start the season, though still led by the mercurial Steph Curry and Draymond Green, won’t be joined by Klay Thompson, who’ll likely miss the bulk of season while recovering from knee surgery, nor two-time NBA Finals MVP, Kevin Durant, who opted to team up with Kyrie Irving and the Brooklyn Nets.
Golden State will also be without their defensive maestro, Andre Iguadola, who the Warriors jettisoned to the Memphis Grizzlies owing to his rather large $17 million salary cap hit.
While they did bring in an emerging NBA star in D'Angelo Russell, the team figures to be particularly vulnerable from a defensive standpoint with only New Orleans, Utah and Minnesota conceding more than the 115.8 points per game than the Warriors gave up throughout the pre-season.
Steph Curry’s sublime skills and leadership, coupled with the continued intensity of Green’s game, will ensure the Warriors remain relevant in season 2019/20 even if their path to a sixth consecutive Finals appearance seems extremely difficult.
PRE-SEASON STAT: The Warriors' 27 fouls per game and an average of 30.4 free throw attempts against were a worrying sign for a team that looks particularly thin on the wings.
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UTAH JAZZ
Win NBA Championship Probability: 3.6%
The Utah Jazz have never won an NBA Championship, however, the team they currently have in place figures to give them their best chance since the early 90's.
For the second time in three seasons, the Jazz was able to win 50+ games, however, their regular-season excellence hasn’t resulted in anything meaningful come playoff time. Once again, the Jazz came unstuck last post-season, collapsing on offense, where they produced a Western Conference low 97.8 points per game during the playoffs, which led to a swift 4-1 exit at the hands of Houston.
Enter Mike Conley. After 12 excellent seasons running the point in Memphis, Utah won the services of one the game’s most underappreciated superstars, who possesses the kind of game which could turbocharge a very strong Utah roster featuring the likes of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Australia’s Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic, who the team also added through free agency.
PRE-SEASON STAT: Utah lost all four of their pre-season games against NBA opposition with their only victory a 52-point mauling of Australia’s Adelaide 36ers, while opponents hit a league-high 39.6% of there threes against them.
DENVER NUGGETS
Win NBA Championship Probability: 3.0%
Under head coach Mike Malone the Denver Nuggets have increased their win total for four straight seasons, last year securing 54 which was good enough for their first division crown in ten seasons.
It was a team fuelled by the phenomenal production of their Serbian ‘unicorn’ Nikola Jokic, who placed fourth in 2018-19 MVP voting but was assisted greatly by young stars Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley and Gary Harris.
With the exception of internal progression amongst the likes of Michael Porter Jr and Spaniard, Juan Hernangomez, the Nuggets did precious little during free agency to a roster which ultimately failed to get past the Portland Trailblazers in the Western Conference semi final.
They’ll be one team to keep a close eye on where future trades are concerned.
PRE-SEASON STAT: Michael Porter Jr, who failed to play a single game last season after being drafted #14th overall, averaged 20.8 points per 36 minutes in the pre-season. If he can perform at that level throughout the regular season, the Nuggets may not need to make too much of a trade splash in order to climb to the cusp of Western Conference contention.
SEE EVERY NBA TEAM'S CHAMPIONSHIP PROJECTIONS
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