The Atlanta Hawks Just Fast-Forwarded Their Rebuild

Dec 3, 2020, 8:08AM

The Atlanta Hawks finished the 2019-20 season with a 20-47 record. At 14th in the Eastern Conference and with the 27th-ranked record overall, it was a season to forget for a franchise that hasn't featured in the playoffs since 2017.

Moments of promise cushioned the blow, yet ultimately, this three-season playoff drought is too long for a franchise that played post-season basketball throughout the ten consecutive seasons prior.

Up until the last couple of weeks, It appeared as though the Hawks were taking a patient approach to rebuilding. With an average age of 24.1 years old, Atlanta sent out the youngest roster in the league last season. Trae Young, John Collins, De'Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish all finished in the top-five in minutes per game for the Hawks in 2019-20. All five are 22-years old or younger, and all comprise an exciting young core that could conceivably be fashioned into a championship contender one day.

However, not satisfied by inching their way up the standings and into playoff contention over four or five years, the Hawks have made a serious splash in free agency. They've added experience and shooting in an attempt to accelerate the rebuild, surrounding the young roster with veteran, play-off credentialed personnel.

The Hawks have their guy in Trae Young. An All-Star last season, the 22-year-old averaged 29.6 points, 9.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 36.1% from deep, with an overall 51.9% effective field goal percentage. He's a thrill every other 24 seconds. That being because Young ended up as one of the worst defensive players in the NBA throughout his rookie season and did little to alleviate that tag the following year. Attacking players worked their way around or through Young all too easily for the superstar guard to record the worst defensive real plus/minus in the league (-6.17). Remarkably, Young ranked second overall in offensive real plus/minus (7.14).

Still, Young is a player the Hawks can build around, and they're doing just that by providing him with serviceable veterans early in his career. Rather than trying to shield him defensively, they've added players that can help maximise his offensive talents.

Young is a bomber. For some, his long-range shooting and highlight-reel crossovers make up for the horrid defence only those regularly tuning into Hawks games consistently see. His 9.5 three-point attempts per game last season ranked fourth in the league, while is 36.1% was a little over league average. They're great numbers for such a high volume shooter who puts them up from anywhere over halfway.

The rest of the roster, however, brought Atlanta's three-point percentage as a team down to 33.3% - the worst in the NBA. That NBA-worst strike-rate came on the back of the eighth-most attempts per game (36.1 3PA).

In new additions, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Young has two elite three-point shooters around him. Only nine players averaged more than six three-point attempts per game while knocking them down at over 40% last season. Both Gallinari (7.1 3PA/40.5%) and Bogdanovic (7.3/41.4%) were two of them.

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To see the Hawks commit so much money to two players in positions already filled with relatively good-value contracts prompted head-scratching to start. It will continue through the 2020-21 season for some should Gallinari and Bogdanovic not have the impact the Atlanta front office hope they will. But there's hope that these two additions (along with others we will get to shortly) can propel the Hawks into the playoffs.

Given what we know about Young's defence, for the Hawks to finish last season 27th in defensive rating and allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions isn't a surprise. However, scoring just 107.2points per 100 possessions for a 26th-ranked offensive rating highlighted the need for the Hawks to change their approach.

Attack. Attack. Attack.

It won't win them a championship, but a championship isn't their goal right now. The Hawks can at least crack the playoff seeds in the Eastern Conference by using their best strength to their advantage. Three East playoff teams finished below the NBA average 110.6 offensive rating in 2019-20. This Hawks roster is more than capable of clearing that number next season.

Young will fill the box score no matter who the Hawks play, or how they play them. Gallinari and Bogdanovic are reliable veterans who combined for 33.8 points while averaging 29 minutes per game apiece for their respective teams last season. While Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, John Collins and De'Andre Hunter played well last season, the youngsters could benefit by being more efficient and effective in fewer minutes. After all, Reddish averaged 30 minutes per game last season as a rookie.

The Hawks can adjust their lineups to the conditions. Surround Young with Gallinari, Bogdanovic, Collins and either Reddish or Huerter, and the defence will have a tough time containing the shooting. Throw in the so-far unused Clint Capelaas a lob threat, or the recently-signed Rajon Rondo to penetrate the lane, and the Hawks have several formulas they can test until finding the winning one.

If Atlanta can develop into a formidable offensive team and force opposing defences to work hard to stop them, any defensive improvements made themselves can be considered a bonus. Visible potential on the defensive side of the ball will satisfy throughout the upcoming season. They'll get at least some of that through Capela.

Capela arrived from the Rockets last season but his yet to play a game for the Hawks. As a strong shot-blocker and excellent rebounder, the Hawks have their big man to clog the lane should they need one. Coach Lloyd Pierce may even have two after drafting Onyeka Okongwu with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.

A product of USC, Okongwu is similar to Capela in his ability and willingness to defend, though the 20-year-old displays a lot more upside on the offensive end. While the duo will be battling it out for minutes, Pierce may one day have a difficult time keeping both happy seeing as the Hawks could have two quality defenders down low moving forward.

Their problems on the perimeter begin with Young. The addition of Rondo along with Kris Dunn and Tony Snell begins to alleviate them. Dunn just missed out on All-Defensive team honours last season while Snell has made a career out of hitting three's and playing strong team defence.

So, throughout an active off-season the Hawks have added experience, shooting and perimeter defence.

While it has all come at a significant cost and may make it seem like the Hawks are being impatient given their signals for 2020-21, Pierce told The Athleticthat their splash in free agency hasn't come out of nowhere:

"We haven’t skipped a step. We’re going to grow and develop our young guys. We’re going to be as competitive as we could be. We’re going to keep levelling up what we define as being competitive, but this is the necessary step and all part of the plan.”

Bogdanovic is the youngest of the big-money additions at 28-years old and has a player option for 2023-24. Meanwhile, 34-year-old Rondo and 32-year-old Gallinari's contracts expire after the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons respectively. Should all things continue to go as planned for the Hawks, they will be an offensive powerhouse by then. The $21.5 million Gallinari makes in 2022-23 can be spent with a defensive focus for the following season. Capela's $18.2 million can be used in the same way.

Young will likely be a four-time All-Star by then. At least one of Huerter, Hunter or Reddish should pose as an effective foil for their point guard by that time, too.

The Hawks appear desperate to lift themselves onto the middling ledge that so many teams get stuck on. Perhaps they will be the next group to peak as a 6th, 7th or 8th seed and ultimately be remembered as first-round fodder for eventual conference champions.

But maybe, just maybe, this roster develops as planned with the veteran leadership and playoff experience they hope to gain over the next two or three seasons paying dividends much further down the track.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.