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The Continuous Conundrum of the Houston Rockets

This image is a derivative of 2013 Houston Rockets 1 by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)

James Harden negotiated a double team in his first possession against the Atlanta Hawks in late November. He found P.J. Tucker in the corner who knocked down the three-point shot. Moments later, the Hawks sent another double at the Houston Rockets superstar. This time, it was Ben McLemore benefiting with the open look from beyond the arc.

Inviting another before even crossing halfway, Harden sent the ball to Tucker who fed McLemore for another freebie.

Just 31 minutes after the Hawks sent their first double team at Harden, he left the game with 60 points with the Rockets eventually winning by 47. They couldn't stop Harden from feeding his teammates and getting his too.

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Harden finished with 50 points in his next game while shooting an abysmal 11-from-37 from the field and 4-from-20 on three's. This time, the Rockets lost to a decidedly average San Antonio Spurs outfit in double overtime despite Harden's big number.

While these are games in November and December, they are the opening scenes of a movie we've already seen: Harden is unstoppable during the regular season and the Rockets win a lot of games, but it all comes unstuck when he can't do it all on his own in the playoffs.

The Rockets have won 53+ games in five of the last six seasons without once advancing to the NBA Finals. With teams scheming against Harden in the playoffs, his effective field goal percentage dropped in all five of the 50+ win post-seasons. Only once did his points per game number not go the same way.

Without the teammates around him to make up the difference, the Rockets were bounced before having a chance to play for the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Projected to win over 53 regular season games behind monster Harden numbers again this season, it's all looking worryingly familiar for the Rockets.

Appreciating James Harden

His isolation-heavy and foul-baiting style of play is a contentious topic. Houston residents love it and the wins it produces while many others can't stand the sight and chose to spend their time watching other teams.

Everybody can agree Harden is one of the best offensive players in the league, though.

His numbers are incredible.

He scores an NBA-high 37.9 points per game, and as everybody knows, he scores a lot of those points out of isolation.

Harden is averaging 13.8 isolation plays per game; more than double the next highest at 6.6 per game. He's scoring on 44.5% of those plays with 16.7% ending with him at the line for 15.3 points in isolation per game to be in the 88th percentile in the league.

When calling a man over to run a pick and roll, Harden is in the 83rd percentile. He uses 23.8% of his possessions to be the ball handler in a pick and roll, scoring eight points per game while getting to the line an incredible 18.9% of the time. 

Meanwhile, only Atlanta's Trae Young averages more than Harden's 19.3 drives per game. With them, the Rockets guard scores 14.8 points and hands out 2.1 assists per game.

Isolation, pick and roll and drives to the lane, Harden can score on you however he likes.

Whether he appeals to NBA fans or not, Harden is one of the best scorers the game has ever seen. Nobody can drop 50 points and it barely crack the news cycle quite like Harden. His scoring outbursts have become so regular that anything short of 30 points is considered an off-night.

He's a magician with the ball in his hands and is primed to pick up another scoring title.

Will he finally receive the support he needs to win the title he really wants?

Welcoming Westbrook

The NBA world stopped and scratched their head when Russell Westbrook was traded to the Rockets for Chris Paul and a handful of first-round picks.

Can Westbrook accept being the second guy in a team that is so clearly Harden's?

Even if he can, how could these two possibly play together?;

So far, the answers to those two questions are fairly positive.

Westbrook is the second option and appears to be playing the role willingly. He's not overplaying his hand quite so much and defers to Harden when the time is right more often than not. When the pair share the court together, the Rockets play with a +7.1 net rating while scoring 1.112 points per possession.

That all sounds great, however, the on/off-court data suggest Harden is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in this partnership.

Harden & Westbrook On-Court
Harden On-Court
Westbrook On-Court
Harden Off-Court
Westbrook Off-Court
+7.1
+9.0
+1.8
-6.2
+13.0


Houston's net rating skyrockets when Westbrook is on the bench while they play like the 23rd-ranked team in the NBA when Harden is off the court.

For Westbrook to add the sort of value the Rockets need to be successful in the playoffs, he needs to complement Harden when he's on the floor and hold up the bench when he's off. At the moment, the team scores 1.196 points per possession with only Harden out there while managing just 1.026 points per possession when Westbrook is the only star on the court.

Westbrook's 22.5 points, 8 rebounds and 7.4 assists look nice in the box score, but he's not achieving those numbers without also posting the worst assist ratio of his career (21.6), worst effective field goal percentage (45.2%) since his rookie year, and worst assist to turnover ratio since 2011-12 (1.66).

He simply needs to take better care of the basketball and become a lot more efficient if the Rockets are going to extend their season beyond the second or third round of the playoffs this time around.

Harden is trying to get Westbook involved early in games and has said it may take time before he begins to produce what the Rockets need. However, like Harden, Westbrook will need a little help too.

The Supporting Cast

Everybody outside of Harden and Westbrook has a relatively consistent and defined role.

Clint Capela is tasked with pulling down as many rebounds as he can, handing it off, and running down the floor. He's set to earn a $500,000 bonus if he can finish the season with a 30% defensive rebound rate - currently 28.3% for the season. There isn't any confusion about what his role is in this team.

Likewise, Tucker is tasked with being a menace on the defensive end and waiting in the corner to shoot a three on offense. No player averaging more than 30 minutes per game has a lower usage rate than Tucker's 9.6%. He has two jobs and does them exceptionally well.

Danuel House Jr and McLemore have both impressed as starters this season. They've switched in and out of the lineup, but whoever does get out there for tipoff has been doing their job - defend the wing and knock down threes.


Points
FG%
3P%
Rebounds
Assists
House Jr
11.6
44.4%
41.5%
4.5
1.4
McLemore
18
47.7%
41.3%
4.3
1.1


While Austin Rivers hasn't been shooting well, he's streaky and can catch fire at any moment. So too can Eric Gordon - who is expected to return around Christmas Day - and Gerald Green, although, Green may not get on the court before the playoffs if he does all season.

The Capela, Tucker, House, McLemore, Rivers, Gordon and Green supporting cast fit into the Rockets system perfectly, but the imperfect scenario of playoff basketball is a different beast. Opposing teams and coaches know their roles equally as well by the time post-season basketball comes around. Can they play outside of their defined roles in the regular season and take the heat off Harden, and to a lesser extent, Westbrook, in a playoff series?

The cast is a little different, but it feels like we've seen this movie before; the regular season dominance, Harden putting up ridiculous numbers, comments around this being the year they get through to the big dance.

Harden can't do it all no matter how much it looks like he might be able to throughout the regular season.

Unless there is an unexpected plot twist in April in May, this one will be over before June. 

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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