Reading through the list of this year’s NFL MVP contenders will tell you that Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers represent the league’s apparent awesome foursome where this year’s award is concerned, with long odds around just about anyone else.

And it is indeed those long odds which bring us here today, identifying ten long-shot prospects, all of whom are better than 40-1, and whom all have a fighters chance of making this year’s MVP something other than a four-man race.

SAQUON BARKLEY (NYG)

Odds: $41

Why?

From a purely athletic perspective, there isn’t a single player in the NFL quite like the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Barkley plays the game as though he were in some sort of video game, seemingly existing in another dimension to where the rest of the competition resides. Barkley amassed more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage in 2018 along with 15 touchdowns - the kind of numbers which, if replicated, won’t be ignored by MVP voters.

Why not?

Because the Giants are dreadful. MVP voters tend to like players on good, contending teams, neither of which are terms associated with the Giants. Unless Barkley takes his yards from scrimmage beyond 2,500 while dialling the touchdowns up to - and beyond - 20, a lack of Giants' wins might prevent him from genuine MVP contention.

CAM NEWTON (CAR)

Odds: $41

Why?

Because he’s won it before... and because he’s finally healthy (hopefully) again. While Newton did roll his ankle in the pre-season, requiring the use of a moonboot for a couple of days, the 2015 NFL MVP is expected to start week one. This will be the second year operating under Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner’s multi-dimensional attack, which could be enough to rocket the former Auburn star back into MVP consideration.

Why Not?

Health, unfortunately. Newton’s body broke down after the Panther’s impressive 6-2 start last season, and though he may be ready for Week 1, we are talking about a player who required a total shoulder reconstruction in the off-season.

MITCHELL TRUBISKY (CHI)

Odds: $41

Why? 

Because he’s an elite quarterback 'prospect' whose numbers started to take off in 2019 as he took control of the Bear’s offence. While Trubisky’s start to NFL life hasn’t been without hiccups, the former North Carolina Tar Heel improved by the week in 2019, culminating in a huge 300 yard & three touchdown playoff performance.

Why Not? 

Because whichever way you cut it, he’s simply not in the truly elite band of QBs just yet. It would take a spectacular season for him to make the kind of leap MVP voters will be looking for.

ALVIN KAMARA (NO)

Odds: $41

Why?

Because he’s now the single most important part of one the league’s premier offenses. While QB Drew Brees is 40 years old and still capable of the extraordinary, it’s Kamara who the Saints have handed the keys to in order to keep the Saints attack ticking. New Orleans is once again expected to win a lot of games, and if there’s one-thing MVP voters gravitate toward, it’s players who put up big numbers on winning teams.

Why Not?

Because he’s not a quarterback. Incredibly, 11 of the last 12 MVP winners have been QBs, with Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season the last time voters resisted giving the award to a signal-caller. Quarterback dominance is reflected loud and clear in the betting markets, with the first 12 favourites all representing the position.

DAK PRESCOTT (DAL)

Odds: $51

Why? 

Because he’s already proved himself to be a very good QB on a very good team. Prescott’s management is seeking an extraordinarily large contract, the kind of which is usually accompanied by extraordinary performance. If he’s able to perform in 2019, he’ll quickly find himself in the MVP discussion.

Why Not?

Because he’s not spectacular. While Prescott is one cool customer, thriving in one of the most scrutinised environments in professional sports, he simply hasn’t done anything exceptional yet to win the hearts and minds of voters.

TODD GURLEY (LAR)

Odds: $67

Why? 

He went close last season and because there simply isn’t another more rounded running back in the NFL. Gurley is at the epicentre of everything that’s wonderful about the Rams offense. Unfortunately, his knee wore down as the season progressed, which indeed resulted in the Rams' attack losing its lustre.

Why Not?

Because of his arthritic knee. The Rams may well play it conservatively with Gurley - particularly in the first half of the season - so as not to harm the former Georgia Bulldog’s knee. And as we know, the MVP is about a full season’s worth of work.

AARON DONALD (LAR)

Odds: $67

Why?

Because he’s a one-man wrecking ball who’s had the single biggest impact (outside of head coach, Sean McVay) on the Rams turning themselves into an elite team these past two seasons. The 2018 Defensive Player of the Year’s season was simply incredible, registering 41 QB hits and 20.5 sacks, while also forcing four fumbles.

Why Not?

Because he plays on defense, which for MVP voters is akin to swallowing poison. Not since Bill Belichick’s favourite ever player, Lawrence Taylor, won the MVP in 1986, have voters thought to grant the gong to a defensive player. How many sacks did Taylor have in his 1986 MVP campaign? That’s right, 20.5!

KHALIL MACK (CHI)

Odds: $126

Why?

Because if Aaron Donald is $67, Mack probably shouldn’t be $126. While defenders don’t usually win the award (as mentioned above), Donald and Mack are the two players with rock-solid candidacy. On a team that went 12-4 last season, Mack was their most influential player, and the lynchpin behind everything the league’s most vaunted unit accomplished.

Why Not? 

Because defenders never win, and because the Bears are not expected to be as dominant in 2019 as they were last season.

LEONARD FOURNETTE (JAX)

Odds: $101

Why? 

When he gets going, it often takes all eleven opposition defenders to bring him down. In Fournette’s rookie season - in just 13 games - the former LSU star amassed 1,342 yards from scrimmage as well as 10 total touchdowns which seemed to herald the arrival of a genuine NFL superstar. And while his numbers dropped off the cliff in 2018, Fournette has proven he has the kind of Adrian Peterson-like star power to pique voter’s interest.

Why Not? 

Because running backs simply aren’t fashionable anymore. Especially backs like Fournette who play next to no part in the passing game. To grab voter’s attention, Fournette might have to break through 2,000 rushing yards which has been accomplished just seven times in NFL history.

DEANDRE HOPKINS (HOU)

Tab Odds: $151

Why? 

Because he’s probably the best receiver in the NFL, and because his quarterback is healthy. There isn’t a receiver in the league who has combined reliability and the spectacular as well as DeAndre Hopkins. Thanks to DeShaun Watson’s health and the Texans' recommitment to the offensive line, every sack Watson doesn’t take this season will be another opportunity to get the ball to Hopkins, who, in just six seasons, has already amassed 7,437 yards and 47 touchdowns.

Why Not?

Because wide receivers are even less popular than running backs in the eyes of MVP voters with not a single one having ever won the award previously.

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