10,000 ways in which US Open could play out
Last updated: Aug 28, 2019, 5:40AM | Published: May 24, 2019, 3:53AM
The year’s final grand slam, and one of the most prestigious events on the Tennis calendar - the US Open - kicks off this Monday, in New York.
Ash Barty will attempt to become the first Australian since Margaret Court in 1973 to win multiple major singles titles in the same year. We have now seen 9 different women winning a Grand Slam crown from the last 11 majors, and the US Open could very well make it 10 winners from 12 Grand Slams.
Over on the men's side of the draw, Novak Djokovic looks set to continue his recent dominance by winning his third major of 2019. Roger Federer is waiting for his first Grand Slam victory since last year’s Australian Open while Rafael Nadal would be wanting to replicate his 2017 performance at Flushing Meadows.
RELATED: Stats Insider's Tennis World Rankings
Over the last few months, we have been developing and refining our predictive tennis model, which projects out the mathematical probabilities of a player winning a match, and several other market predictions, after running 10,000 simulations of said match. We do the same for our futures markets for tournament champions.
Enter our free US Open Simulator.
The simulator is the best way to explore the underlying data that powers our tournament predictions, providing hours of entertainment - or simply a bad case of RSI - while you try to work your way through up to 10,000 different tournament outcomes.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Simply select the player whose US Open journey you want to follow, then sit back and watch the simulator do its thing. Each time you click ‘SIMULATE’ the entire tournament will simulate match-by-match, processing through one single possible tournament journey from up to 10,000 possible US Open championships.
Unhappy with the result or want to see a different variation? Just run the simulator again and you’ll have a different outcome.
Remember, there are 10,000 possibilities in total.
WHAT GOES INTO A MATCH SIMULATION?
The basis for our all of our simulations is our proprietary algorithms. We take a range of inputs, including our custom player-level data and court-type rankings, as well as information gleaned from the betting markets and trends, which is then amalgamated into performance projections for each player. From there, we run simulations of each match - point-by-point - 10,000 times to form our probabilities for each match.
Each use of the US Open Simulator draws from one of our 10,000 simulations for it’s match results.
HOW OFTEN IS IT UPDATED?
During the tournament itself, the simulation will regularly be updated with the results of each match, so you can run updated simulations throughout the entire 2019 US Open.
IS THERE MORE INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC MATCHES?
Match pages will be on the Stats Insider website prior to the first games.
In the meantime, check out the simulator, learn how we built our Tennis model, and check out our custom Tennis world rankings, and why we think they’re better and more accurate than the official rankings.
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