2019 FIFA Women's World Cup: R2 match projections

Last updated: Mar 4, 2021, 3:05AM | Published: Jun 12, 2019, 3:48AM

The 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup has kicked off in style with hosts France setting the tone for the tournament with a 4-0 win over South Korea in the opener. The first round of matches also saw Germany, Spain, Norway, Brazil, England and Canada getting the first win under their belt.

The Dutch and the Italians squeezed in late winners to get three points, while the United States of America proved why they’re the outright favourites to lift the World Cup with a resounding 13-0 thrashing of Thailand.

According to the Stats Insider model, the biggest loser after the first round of matches was Australia.

The Matildas went from 6.3% to a 2.1% chance of winning the World Cup and from 13.6% to 5.8% probability of making the final.

Speaking of, the Stats Insider model had a great first week in terms of match projections, correctly predicting 10/12 winners (83%) so far. As the tournament goes on, we will update our projections for the next round of matches, and also update actual results with a big tick (✔️) next to the result of each match.

If this is your first time on Stats Insider, the percentage numbers next to each team below is the probability of that team winning the match. Likewise for a draw.

SIMULATOR: 10,000 Ways the Women's World Cup Could Play Out

Here are the Stats Insider win probabilities for the second round of group stage matches:

GROUP A

Nigeria v South Korea

Nigeria: 25.0 % ✔️

DRAW: 20.1%

South Korea: 55.0%

France v Norway

France: 55.0% ✔️

DRAW: 20.1%

Norway: 25%

GROUP B

Germany v Spain

Germany: 55.9% ✔️

DRAW: 19.7%

Spain: 24.4%

South Africa v China

South Africa: 10.8%

DRAW: 14.6%

China: 74.7% ✔️

GROUP C

Australia v Brazil

Australia: 38.7% ✔️

DRAW: 22.5%

Brazil: 38.7%

Jamaica v Italy

Jamaica: 23.8.

DRAW: 18.9%

Italy: 57.3% ✔️

GROUP D

Japan v Scotland

Japan: 69.4% ✔️

DRAW: 15.0%

Scotland: 15.6%

England v Argentina

England: 90.0% ✔️

DRAW: 6.3%

Argentina: 3.6%

GROUP E

Netherlands v Cameroon

Netherlands: 85.3% ✔️

DRAW: 8.3%

Cameroon: 6.4%

Canada v New Zealand

Canada: 49.7% ✔️

DRAW: 20.2%

New Zealand: 30.1%

READ: The 5 outside chances to cause a World Cup upset

GROUP F

Sweden v Thailand

Sweden: 93.1% ✔️

DRAW: 5.4%

Thailand: 1.5%

United States v Chile

United States: 93.5% ✔️

DRAW: 5.0%

Chile: 1.5%

Fingers crossed, and #TrustTheModel as always! If you're having a bet during the Women's World Cup, remember to always gamble responsibly.

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Nikhil Deshpande

Started supporting Manchester United for Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Chose Collingwood FC because my hairdresser convinced me to. Spreading the word that Charlie Austin and Ben Simmons are GOATs. Got dealt a good hand with sense of humor but had to sacrifice all my Fantasy sports skills in return. Don't regret it at all. Well... maybe just a little.