Its major time at Club 20 and this week we’re doing things a little different with our biggest ever golf spend for the 2021 PGA Championships. 

Hitting Doc Redman for a 25-1 place for First Round Leader last week helped soften the final round disappointment we experienced as three of our runners were in contention and all faltered down the stretch. 

Horror closing rounds from Scottie Scheffler and Ryan Palmer left us looking a little silly with our Sunday night multi’s, and that might have deterred lesser men, but we are not the type to bend the knee to overwhelming sense and reason. 

Speaking of sense, reason and data, the Stats Insider Golf model has no less than seven (7) green smileys for this event so jump on the Tournament Predictions page and have a look at who the model likes at what price prior to the opening tee off tonight at 9:00pm. 

We will be betting the model’s green smiley plays ofcourse, but we want jetski’s and new golf clubs and stuff too and we want them yesterday ideally, but certainly by Tuesday, so we’ve gotten a little (very) carried away heading into Major week. 

The Course

Kiawah Island is a Pete Dye track that is right on the Atlantic Ocean in South Carolina so even the slightest bit of breeze is going to make this course tricky. 

That breeze will be present throughout with 10-15mp/h winds forecast making it even more difficult than it already is given how stupidly long it is (some 7,800 yards). 

In 2012 Rory McIlroy won this even by 8 strokes so even though he took it apart, literally no one else did, with second place finishing on -5. 

The Green-In-Regulation percentage from off the fairway in that event was not even 40% so whilst this course is long it is not necessarily a track where bombers exclusively excel. 

Even though there are 4 Par 5’s here which would lean guys who can be aggressive and score on those holes, I want guys who can hit a fairway off the tee then get up and down from inside 100m this week, as I really think that will protect them from the big scores that will be out there with wayward driving on this coastal course. 

Field

It is Top 70 and ties (up from the usual Top 65 and ties) and it is worth bearing in mind that this 156-man field includes 20-30 absolute spuds (comparatively speaking) plus a dozen or more Euro Tour players who are just a class below where they need to be to make this cut, so really if you are playing DFS or looking to build a few Top 40 multi’s (as we are) the field size is really about 110-120 so if your guy beats 40 others he makes the weekend.  

Weather

For mine there is a clear PM/AM draw advantage given the spike in wind Friday afternoon, so whilst im prioritizing guys who can handle the wind in general, I am giving extra weight to the late tee off’s Round 1 and hoping they can hold on, then watch the Friday afternoon wave cop a battering. 

That’s the plan at least.  

Strategy

Players who can handle wind, who have success on coastal tracks, good ball strikers, and guys who can hit fairways and can get up and down around the greens. That is the basic formula for this week so the card if full of six guys who can do most or all of these things. 

Taking these six in the Outright market EW, in the First Round Leader Market EW, and also in Top 40 Multi’s (all combos) – as I said it’s a larger spend this week, we are really taking our winnings and going all in on a big collect this week in the Golf (and/or the footy). 

Betting Card

Tony Finau

Has the length off the tee and the around the green game to contend here and he has the power to get through the rough which will be crucial. Three poor results in the last six weeks mean he is out to 40’s not 20-1 so we will take the better odds and hope this is the time for Tony. A T10 at Augusta shows his game is still together despite missing 3 of his last 4 cuts. 

Will Zalatoris

Gained 9.5 strokes on approach last week. Insane. Putter always an issue but this kid has the length and the ball striking to have a chance here. LOVES it windy and has played the coastal courses like Corales and Bermuda well. T4 at the US Open last year and T2 at the Masters. This kid is good enough.  

Keegan Bradley

Relative local in career best form, hitting it better than he ever has on his way to 8 consecutive cuts including a T2 at the Valspar and T18 at Quail Hollow two weeks ago. Has gained in five of his last six events on the greens and he loves this putting surface. Most importantly he knows this course and is on that good PM/AM draw. 

Shane Lowry

When the going gets tough Lowry gets going, especially on a course that is very English in setup with a lot of undulating fairways and wind-effected shots. Lowry has been a bit sneaky this year, missing just one cut in his last 13 starts and posting good finishes at Sawgrass (T8) and the Heritage (T9) recently. I have been banging on about it all year but Lowry has the Ryder Cup firmly in his sights and a Major on a long, hard course is exactly the recipe Lowry wants served up to be able to climb into Team Europe. Love him this week. 

Harris English

Harris is kind of back to the form that saw him go wire to wire at the TOC early this year. Gained a whopping 3.5 strokes off the tee at the Byron Nelson last week and his putting form continue to trend with 2.5 strokes gained with the flatstick. Loves the wind, loves it tough and has good coastal course form and lastly, is at crazy odds. 

Christiaan Bezeidenhout

Yes he is a favourite and yes sometimes I bet him blindly but Bez is on a PGA Tour cut streak of 8 now, and has one finish outside the top 40 in that time. He actually gained strokes off the tee at the Heritage a few weeks ago which is very rare and the clear knock on his chances here, but the guy is a magician around and on the greens and is well accustomed to windy conditions being from South Africa (where he went back to back on the Euro not 6 months ago). 

Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama has gone from the little Japanese engine that could but likely never would to reigning Masters champion and national hero. That confidence bump is not to be underestimated. Striped the ball at the Byron Nelson last week and lost a career low 4.5 strokes around the greens which wont happen again. Don’t like him in the wind which he will face R2 but adding him to the First Round Leader plays tonight.  

Stats Insider Model Green Smileys

• T10: Abraham Ancer

• T20: Charlie Hoffman, Jason Kokrak, Matt Jones

Enjoy the tournament lads and ladies, there are a lot of bets here so lower your stake if you want to play all the tables or just pick a few that align with what you are seeing, hearing or feeling. 

Make sure you check out the Golf pages on Stats Insider and don’t forget to jump onto Club 20 Twitter and join in the burgeoning conversations about bad beats, possible bets and general sh*t talk.