2023 AFL Finals: Which Teams Will Make the Top Eight?

As the 2023 AFL home and away enters the final two rounds, Stats Insider's AFL predictive model has delivered its verdict on the teams most likely to make the top eight.

As per Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and Port Adelaide have a 100% chance of making the finals, while Carlton is at 99.4% to play in the 2023 AFL finals.

After spending the majority of the season outside of the eight, Sydney is rated as a 69.8% chance to make the AFL finals. This means with the Swans' current price of $1.70 on the Betfair Exchange, with an implied probability of 58.82%, Stats Insider's futures model suggests backing Sydney to make the eight.

The Western Bulldogs at 60.9% and St Kilda at 56.3% round out the teams that are more likely to make the eight than miss.

The 2022 AFL grand final winners Geelong are now more likely to miss the eight than make it, with Stats Insider's futures model giving the Cats a 45.1% chance to make the 2023 AFL finals.

Stats Insider's AFL expert said the Round 23 game between St Kilda and Geelong will have a "significant" impact on the top eight probabilities.

"The finals chances of both St Kilda and Geelong could be decided in Round 23," he said.

"St Kilda is currently a better than 50% chance to make the top eight, but the Saints won't go into the Round 23 clash with Geelong as the more likely team to win in the eyes of the model. This means, if they were to defeat the Cats, their probabilities to make the finals will rise sharply, while Geelong's will drop dramatically.

"Conversely, if Geelong are able to overcome St Kilda, the probabilities will shift in the Cats' favour, and the Saints will loom as the most likely team to drop out of the top eight.

"The ramifications for both teams going into that clash are significant."

2023 AFL Top Eight Probabilities

All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.

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