2023 AFL Futures: Can the Cats Reclaim the Cup?
Last updated: Feb 28, 2023, 3:15AM | Published: Feb 25, 2023, 2:36AM
Geelong is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership according to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model, which gives the Cats a 23.4% chance of going back-to-back.
The Cats, coming off a dominant 133-52 win over Sydney in last year's AFL grand final, have the highest probability of claiming the cup going into the new campaign.
The Betfair Exchange has Geelong at $6 to win a second straight AFL flag in 2023.
Stats Insider's AFL expert says the Cats deserve to be this year's flag favourites.
"Geelong has not lost a game since May last year, and they won the grand final by over 80 points," he said.
"Despite losing their captain to retirement, they've increased the depth of their squad by acquiring Jack Bowes, Ollie Henry and Tanner Bruhn.
"Their unique home ground advantage, as the only Victorian team that does not share a home ground, combined with the fact that they do not have to play against themselves as the top team, means their fixture is favourable."
"They rightly deserve to go into the season with some of the shortest odds to win the premiership we've seen in recent years."
Richmond, after recruiting GWS Giants pair Tim Taranto and Jacob Hooper, is the next-best option in the premiership frame at a 12.2% probability, while Melbourne at 10.0% is the only other team above double digits.
New Tiger Tim Taranto with a classy finish!
— AFL (@AFL) February 23, 2023
You love to see it. pic.twitter.com/TFERnTueXm
The side that is due to make the biggest slide is Sydney.
Despite making last year's AFL grand final, the Swans are only rated as having a 6.8% chance of winning the 2023 AFL premiership, based on a 15.2% probability of making the decider, with five teams rated above them heading into the new season.
Our expert believes a tough AFL strength of schedule is the catalyst for a predicted slide down the ladder.
"After making last year's grand final, the AFL has 'rewarded' the Swans with a particularly difficult fixture," he said.
"Stats Insider made Sydney's draw the hardest in the league in 2023. This is the main reason why they are lower than you might expect.
While our model predicts a decline for the Swans, our expert explained that all hope is not lost as we approach 2023.
"Another factor contributing to this is the inexperienced players that make up their depth, meaning they're harder to get a read on, which increases variance," he added.
"With only 2% separating teams ranked between fourth and ninth in our premiership probabilities, it's very possible that the Swans find themselves in a top-four position again."
MORE: Full List of AFL Futures for the 2023 Premiership Season
Top 10 AFL 2023 Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Premiership | Minor Premiership | To Make Grand Final |
| Geelong | 22.4% | 33.5% | 39.6% |
| Richmond | 12.2% | 10.9% | 22.9% |
| Melbourne | 10.0% | 9.4% | 19.6% |
| Brisbane Lions | 8.4% | 9.0% | 18.6% |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.1% | 5.9% | 14.5% |
| Collingwood | 6.9% | 5.7% | 13.7% |
| Carlton | 6.9% | 6.0% | 14.1% |
| Sydney | 6.8% | 6.0% | 15.2% |
| Port Adelaide | 6.4% | 5.5% | 14.3% |
| Fremantle | 3.9% | 3.4% | 9.0% |
*Probabilities correct as of 25/02/23
Who Will Have the Most Losses in the 2023 AFL Season?
Last year's wooden spooners North Melbourne are expected to finish the 2023 AFL season with the most losses at a 38.4% probability.
Next in line is the West Coast Eagles, who currently sit at 19.3% to finish with the most losses, while Hawthorn (10.0%) is the only other team that's in double figures.
Despite four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson taking the reins for 2023, our expert believes it will take some time before the Kangaroos can make their rise up the ladder.
"It appears that North Melbourne is still in the early stages of a rebuilding process, with the 2023 season likely to be a year of experimentation and growth for the football club," he said.
"While the Clarkson factor is a positive development, it is unlikely to be a panacea for the team's current woes. The team's management will need to continue to make shrewd decisions in terms of list management and player development to facilitate the club's eventual return to success.
"The acquisition of some top-line draft picks and experienced players such as Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker from Fremantle may provide some much-needed depth to the squad, but it doesn't guarantee an immediate jump up the ladder, and that's reflected in our model."
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