2023 NRL Futures: Panthers Remain Favourites to Retain
Last updated: Feb 24, 2023, 5:19AM | Published: Feb 23, 2023, 10:38PM
Defending premiers Penrith are Stats Insider's most likely team to win the 2023 NRL title, with our predictive analytics model giving the Panthers a 17.6% chance of claiming a third straight title.
The Panthers, who secured last year's premiership with a dominant 28-12 win over the Parramatta Eels, also have the highest chance of claiming back-to-back minor premierships at a 16.5% probability.
Stats Insider's NRL expert says the Panthers remain the team to beat heading into the 2023 NRL season.
"Despite losing some big names in Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikau over the off-season, the Panthers head into the 2023 season as our model's favourites to take home the crown," he said.
"Whilst not quite as high on them as the $4.00 odds to win the premiership available in the market, led by one of the best halves in the competition in Nathan Cleary, the model still expects a strong showing from the Panthers in 2023."
The @PenrithPanthers are defending a Nathan Cleary celebration during the World Cup Challenge against St Helens l @trentsimpsonTEN pic.twitter.com/mmjQWX0UBZ
— 10 News First Sydney (@10NewsFirstSyd) February 20, 2023
The team the Panthers defeated in the 2022 grand final is expected to struggle this year, with the Eels given just a 6.5% chance of winning the 2023 NRL premiership.
Our expert believes list changes have lead to the Eels dropping significantly in our model's predictions
"Looking at our futures predictions you may have noticed our model is predicting a little bit of regression for last year's grand finalists in the Eels," our expert explained.
"A host of off-season departures including Isaiah Papali'i (Wests Tigers), Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs), Marata Niukore (Warriors) and Oregon Kaufusi (Sharks) as well as early season injury and suspension woes for Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane have no doubt played a role in the model's predictions."
Stats Insider's predictive model has the Roosters making the biggest jump in 2023, giving Sydney a 15.0% chance for the premiership after a sixth-place finish last year.
MORE: Full List of NRL Futures for the 2023 Premiership Season
Top 10 NRL 2023 Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Premiership | Minor Premiership | Top 4 | Top 8 |
| Penrith Panthers | 17.6% | 16.5% | 53.4% | 81.2% |
| Sydney Roosters | 15.0% | 15.1% | 51.0% | 78.9% |
| South Sydney | 14.4% | 14.0% | 48.2% | 76.8% |
| North Queensland | 13.1% | 12.6% | 46.1% | 76.7% |
| Melbourne Storm | 10.9% | 11.3% | 41.6% | 72.8% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 10.2% | 11.1% | 40.7% | 72.4% |
| Parramatta Eels | 6.5% | 5.9% | 26.7% | 57.3% |
| Canberra Raiders | 5.2% | 5.0% | 25.4% | 56.8% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 2.0% | 1.7% | 12.8% | 37.1% |
| St George Illawarra | 1.1% | 1.3% | 9.2% | 31.6% |
Who Will Have the Most Losses in the 2023 NRL Season?
Ahead of the 2023 NRL season, there is a 16.2% chance that the Dolphins, the newest team in the league, will lose the most games.
Just behind the Dolphins are the New Zealand Warriors at 15.4%, while the Newcastle Knights round out the double-figure chances at 14.8%.
Last year's wooden spooners, the Wests Tigers, are at 8.3%.
Any expectation that the Dolphins will make an immediate impact in their inaugural season, according to our NRL expert, is misplaced.
"All eyes will be on competition newcomers the Dolphins in 2023 – the first new team in the NRL since the Gold Coast Titans," he said.
"While there is plenty of excitement around, they have assembled a squad with NRL experience, and the Wayne Bennett factor cannot be overlooked, but they have failed to land an out-and-out superstar for their inaugural season.
"The model predicts they will have a difficult start to life in the NRL, with the Dolphins as the favourites for the most losses in 2023 heading into the season."
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