While the men’s Australian Open has been overwhelmed by the Novak Djokovic story, the women’s Australian Open has existed in the shadows, due to the media tsunami that's swallowed up the internet and television over the past week and a half. 

Which WTA players could make an outsider’s run to the Australian Open championship this January? The question is not easy to answer if you cap the number at five, because there are frankly a dozen legitimate candidates here (defined as players who have never reached a major final but could legitimately go the distance at Melbourne Park). 

Women’s tennis is extremely deep, yet also volatile. Volatility isn’t automatically a bad thing. It can be, but in this case, it isn’t. 

Volatility has not prevented women’s tennis from being excellent at the majors and 2021 was a perfect example of this. There is (and has been) so much quality to enjoy at major tournaments over the past few years. Women’s tennis simply exists in a unique space where the lack of a consistent set of rivalries has not detracted from the product.  

It’s a natural tendency to think that any sport needs a signature rivalry to maximise popularity and fan interest, but at the 2021 U.S. Open women’s tournament, we had a hugely-hyped final which resonated with fans … and the players both came out of relative obscurity to get there. 

We didn’t get an Ashleigh Barty-Naomi Osaka blockbuster final, and yet the duel between champion Emma Raducanu and runner-up Leylah Fernandez was a quality match. It was better tennis than either the Roland Garros or Wimbledon women’s singles finals played earlier in the year. Absolutely no one predicted a Raducanu-Fernandez final before the tournament, but they both played great tennis to get there, and they both played well in the final. 

So, which outsiders are best positioned to win in Australia? It’s a very hard question to answer. Will we get another out-of-nowhere final, or will the 2022 championship have players who have laid a foundation for a big run in Melbourne? 

RELATED: Check out all of Stats Insider's 2022 AO tournament projections

COCO GAUFF 

Let’s remember that Coco Gauff had five set points against Barbora Krejcikova in the Roland Garros quarterfinals last year before Krejcikova escaped to win the first set and eventually take that match. Gauff very nearly defeated the eventual French Open champion. She understands how to compete, and she plays great defence. Her forehand is still a weakness, and double faults have crept into her game in important moments, but as a teenager, Gauff’s career is well ahead of schedule. She manages matches better than many far more experienced professionals.  

As Gauff gets older, she'll grow both physically and mentally. The physical growth will help her to beef up her forehand and hit a reliable kick serve. Those weaknesses should diminish partly through a natural process of evolution, in addition to hard work and dedication. Gauff might not be ready to win this Australian Open, but she has given Naomi Osaka problems. 

Coco doesn’t back down from a fight and If she gets a good break or two, why not her? Why not now? 

ONS JABEUR 

Women’s tennis is very deep and balanced, as shown by one fact about the past three years of major-championship play: In two of the past three years (with 2020 not having Wimbledon and therefore not featuring all four majors), 12 different women have reached a major semifinal in the same calendar year. In 2019, Serena Williams and Elina Svitolina were the only women to make more than one major semifinal. In 2021, Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari were the only two women to make more than one major semi. In most women’s major tournaments over the past six years, you'll find a first-time semifinalist. This isn’t the exception in the sport; it’s THE rule. 

Therefore, of all the WTA players seeking a first major semifinal in Melbourne, Ons Jabeur would have to be at the top of the list of candidates. She made the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year, beating Garbine Muguruza and Iga Swiatek on the way to the round of eight. She lost to an in-form Aryna Sabalenka in the quarters. It’s staggering to contemplate that beating Muguruza and Swiatek, both former major champions, did not lead to a semifinal or final, but that shows the quality depth of women’s tennis right now.

The Tunisian produced a high-level 2021. If her 2022 season is as good as 2021, she's bound to make a major semifinal. 

ANETT KONTAVEIT 

Kontaveit got on a big roll late in 2021, winning 12 matches in a row. She won consecutive tournaments to grab a spot in the WTA Finals. Once in the year-end championship tournament in Guadalajara, Mexico, Kontaveit reached the final before being stopped by Garbine Muguruza.  

Kontaveit’s skill has never been the problem for her. The mental game – finding a path to the finish line in a high-pressure situation against determined opposition – has been her stumbling block. Kontaveit can crack the tennis ball with the very best of them, but handling the heat has been a challenge, as it is for many other players with great natural ability but a lack of belief in crunch-time situations.  

Did the end of 2021 reveal a player who is ready to take the next step, or was this a case of a player getting hot after the U.S. Open, when the pressure of the season is noticeably reduced and the stakes aren’t as enormous? We’ll soon find out. 

Kontaveit, like Jabeur, has never reached a major semifinal. Many people will say that this is the time for the Estonian to make her big move. 

PAULA BADOSA 

Badosa is also looking for her first major semifinal. 

After making the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and then winning Indian Wells in October (beating Victoria Azarenka in a fierce and compelling final), it would have been easy for the Spaniard to relent and lose focus at the WTA Finals. Instead, she powered through to the semifinals and showed that the fuel tank wasn’t yet empty. That’s the kind of consistency and staying power which marks a top-10 player. 

Badosa has a top-10 seed at this tournament and will be a target in Melbourne. We'll see if she's ready to deal with the increased media scrutiny and the more advanced game-planning from opposing coaches which accompany a rise into the top tier of the sport.

 Badosa doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel. She has big groundstrokes, as she found in the latter half of 2021 – especially at Indian Wells – and an ability to dig deep and battle back after taking a punch. Evolving in the course of one calendar year is not easy; evolving in the year after a breakout season on tour is exponentially more difficult. 

We will see if Badosa is up to the challenge. 

CAMILA GIORGI 

Giorgi is not a reliable player, but in 2021, she found a tournament where everything clicked and fell into place. The Italian won the Montreal 1,000-point tournament, beating Karolina Pliskova in the final. 

Giorgi has always been one of the biggest baseline hitters on tour. Shot selection, patience, point construction, and overall comportment have been hard for the 30-year old to master. She found that happy medium of aggression and patience in Canada, and showed signs of finally growing out of her worst habits on court. If that version of Giorgi – still a huge hitter, but with more wisdom – emerges in Australia, she'll be a very tough out. 

Postscript: As noted above, it’s very hard to limit this list to five players, given the amount of quality depth in women’s tennis. Elena Rybakina was not included on this list due to a recent injury she suffered. Belinda Bencic has never reached a major final but was not included here because she won the Olympic gold medal in Tokyo. That’s not very “outsidery.” I reiterate, though, that at least a dozen players could legitimately be selected in this category. There are simply loads of great choices.  

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