The winds of change are blowing hard and strong in the AFL this season.

We’ve seen three coaches removed from their posts, with potentially more turnover to come. On the field, we’ve seen staggering form fluctuations all over the league, with a new range of premiership contenders emerging after the bye.

Yet amid all the change, there is one certainty we can hang our coats on; that there’s effectively only one more Finals spot still up for grabs.

As it currently stands, the Stats Insider AFL Futures model is suggesting there are no less than six clubs with a mathematical chance of claiming the eighth and final spot, ranging from Adelaide (45.6%) down to Fremantle (4.1%) which ensures the fight for September will likely continue through to round 23.

With just four home and away games left, how are each of the six finals aspirants shaping up, and how does their run home look according to our own AFL Schedule Difficulty algorithm?

ADELAIDE CROWS

AFL Finals Probability: 45.6%

SI Schedule Difficulty: 6^th hardest

Despite the Crows boasting the highest probability among the six clubs fighting for an AFL Finals berth, their form is among the least inspiring in the entire league.

Since the bye, the Crows are just 1-4 with only the Gold Coast Suns harbouring a worse win-loss record. It’s incredible to think that as recently as 2017, Adelaide claimed the minor premiership while barnstorming their way to an AFL Grand Final appearance.

With all of Adelaide’s final games pitting the Crows against either teams entrenched in the eight, or fighting for that final spot, the Crows schedule difficulty is considered the sixth hardest in the competition.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

AFL Finals Probability: 26.7%

SI Schedule Difficulty: 2^nd hardest

Going into Round 19, the Bulldogs were considered just a 13.6% chance of making the Finals, however, their trouncing of Fremantle, combined with a very favourable set of results such as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn all losing, has resulted in a rather rapid resuscitation of the Bulldogs’ September hopes.   

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While the Dogs’ face a brutal schedule over the last month, with trips to both Brisbane and Western Sydney, their post-bye form is encouraging enough to suggest the Dogs might have an upset or two up their sleeve, which could be enough to catapult them back into the AFL Finals for the first time since 2016.

PORT ADELAIDE

AFL Finals Probability: 14.9%

SI Schedule Difficulty: 6^th easiest

Port’s season has fallen upon hard times in recent weeks. Since upsetting Geelong in Round 14, the Power have lost four of their last five matches, while scoring more than 60 points just twice in that period.

The club’s barren run of form looks set to prompt a full-scale football operations review, which will certainly place the spotlight firmly on the coach, Ken Hinkley, who is looking like missing the finals for the fifth time in six years.

Thankfully for Port, their run home is amongst the easiest of the six clubs chasing a finals berth, with their upcoming match against Essendon their only assignment against a team currently heading for September.

HAWTHORN

AFL Finals Probability: 7.8%

SI Schedule Difficulty: 9th easiest 

The Hawks blew a massive opportunity to figure more prominently in discussions for a Finals spot, by losing to the Lions in Tasmania on Saturday. Hawthorn had 15 more inside 50s than Brisbane and was able to produce 25 scoring shots, which was only good enough for a seven-goal return.

The loss leaves the Hawks’ finals hopes hanging by a thread, which would make for just the third season in 13 years with Hawthorn not part of September action.

While the Hawks are fortunate enough to still have Gold Coast on their schedule, they must first make sure they beat North Melbourne this Friday night to keep their Finals dream alive.

ST. KILDA

AFL Finals Probability: 6.5 %

SI Schedule Difficulty: 3rd easiest

One of the more incredible twists of this 2019 season is that the Saints are still alive and kicking as far as AFL Finals calculations are concerned.

At the conclusion of Round 17 the Saints were 15th on the AFL Ladder, while the next day, they parted ways with their coach of six seasons, Alan Richardson.

Two weeks later - and with a rejuvenated Brett Ratten now steering the ship - the Saints are back in with a mathematical Finals chance, thanks to two upset wins over the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

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Helping St Kilda’s dream of breaking a seven-year finals drought is a particularly gentle schedule from here on in, with Saturday night’s clash against Adelaide (in Adelaide) the only game they’ll be considered real outsiders in by the bookmakers.   

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

Chance of making the Finals- 4.1 %

SI Schedule Difficulty: 4^th hardest

So you’re saying there’s chance?

The reality is Fremantle’s form has been dreadful recently, with scores drying up more rapidly than usual under defensive guru, Ross Lyon, while the coach himself has been making some curious public announcements about his 2020 employment situation.

To make matters worse, the Dockers run home is incredibly tough, with the club having the league’s fourth hardest draw, beginning with an assignment against the top of the table Cats this week.

2019 has been an incredibly exciting AFL season with fresh surprises being discovered each week.

That there’s effectively only one AFL Finals spot up for grabs, on the face of it, feels like something of a letdown, yet, only when you consider there are six clubs engaged in a brutal dogfight for that last spot, is one reminded that this particular season wouldn’t have it any other way.

There is surely one or two more twists and turns to come.

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