A-League Betting Preview: Week 1
Last updated: Oct 19, 2018, 5:38AM | Published: Oct 18, 2018, 1:19AM
The A-League is back for its fourteenth season and, for all its detractors, I find it one of the most entertaining leagues to watch and bet on because of the high volume of goals. For all but one season (2007/08) it has averaged over 2.5 goals per game since its inception, peaking at an incredible 3.12 goals per game in 15/16.
Despite these averages, only 63.7% of 2017/18 regular season matches produced over 2.5 total goals, so there are plenty of opportunities to find an edge on the unders markets, particularly with the bookies keeping the overs safe.
Given that this is Round 1 and a new league for the SI model to crunch, I recommend using this week’s preview tentatively and only betting if its findings back up your own opinions on how the weekend will play out. Furthermore, clubs can sometimes ease in new recruits (particularly internationals) which makes the projection of teams difficult.
As an aside, history shows that experience is a major advantage for A-League sides. Eight Premiers’ Plates have been won by the oldest (or second oldest) squad in the league – currently Perth Glory, while eight Premiers’ Plates have been won by managers in their second season at the helm. That bodes well for Newcastle, Adelaide and Melbourne City!
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE PREVIEW
THE GAME: Adelaide v Sydney
WHEN: Fri 19 Oct, 7:50pm EDT
THE PLAY: Adelaide double chance
The FFA Cup finalists clash for the first of two matches in Adelaide in a fortnight, and the model has identified Adelaide as fantastic value based on projected teams. Neither side have lost a Round 1 match in the last five seasons, so expect them both to hit the ground running. They’ve both been impressive in the FFA Cup, with Adelaide keeping three consecutive clean sheets; and Sydney have hard to do it the hard way, with comebacks against Cairns and Avondale preceding their semi-final demolition of WSW. Adelaide should be much stronger for the return of Craig Goodwin and the signing of Michael Jakobsen.
Sydney won ten of their thirteen away last season (D1, L2) and their off-season business leaves them in just as solid a position to remain dominant. The model has Adelaide as narrow favourites, and I’ll be having just a small stake on them to take a point. Both fixtures in Adelaide last year produced under 1.5 goals (0-1 and 0-0).
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THE GAME: Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
WHEN: Sat 20 Oct, 7:50pm EDT
THE PLAY: Under 2.5 goals
Two sides with fairly familiar fortunes during the last regular season, split by just two points and a difference of two goals. Victory were 6-3-5 at home, while City were 6-2-5 away, though as we know: form counts for little in derbies. City took out the first of the season in 17/18 and 16/17, beginning to show signs that the Docklands curse (where Victory have a 6-3-3 record against City/Heart) is well and truly over.
City have in fact not lost any of their previous five opening matches. The model finds some value in favour of under 2.5 goals; and with both sides significantly fortifying their back fours in the off-season, Honda having had few pre-season minutes, Toivonen being eased in after the World Cup, and City just lacking a touch of firepower, I’m confident in taking it.
THE GAME: Wellington v Newcastle
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 3:00pm EDT
THE PLAY: Under 2.5 total goals
Plenty of high expectations surrounding the Jets after their charge in 2017/18 and they fly to Wellington where they have taken points from eight of 19 visits (W4, D4). The Jets enjoyed the second-best travelling record of last season (7-3-3), and given the Phoenix won just four at home (D4, L5), they’re hard to have – particularly when they haven’t won an opening round fixture in six years.
For all their defensive woes last season, they did concede just eight goals in their last seven home games and the recruit of former Newcastle (UK) defender Steven Taylor should help shore things up. Predicting that the Jets win 2-0 or 1-0 which makes the unders appealing.
THE GAME: Brisbane v Central Coast
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 5:00pm EDT
THE PLAY: Brisbane to win
An orange smiley (how appropriate) for the Roar to begin their campaign at home with a win over a Mariners side who struggled horribly on the road last season. Brisbane by no means have the worst squad – Adam Taggart should continue to score goals for fun - though they’ll be without Brett Holman this week. Central Coast tasted victory just once on the road in 17/18 (1-5-8), second-last only to a side who has to fly across the Tasman every week.
They haven’t won in six visits to Brisbane (D1, L5) with their last victory coming in 2013/14 where they finished third. While all the press has been around a Jamaican sprinter, their recruiting has been simply superb: Tommy Oar, Ross McCormack and Jordan Murray are all brilliant signings, and the homecoming of old Matty Simon could even have a positive impact on their season. Still, it’s a largely different XI to last season and there will be a few creases to iron out, particularly defensively.
THE GAME: Perth v Western Sydney
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 7:00pm EDT
THE PLAY: Perth to win and under 2.5 total goals
The doubles markets are poor value (high bookmaker margin) but this one is oh so tempting, particularly when the model spits up orange smileys for both. Western Sydney are always a reasonably strong club but their squad this year just looks a little underdone, particularly compared with their Round 1 opposition.
Perth hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for WSW (as for most ALG clubs), with their last win coming in late 2013/14. Tony Popovic typically eases his new signings into the setup so I’m expecting as few as five of his best XI to start here. They should still be good enough to win with their depth oozing talent and goals, but could be a touch sluggish and thus the under 2.5 appeals. Three of the last five between these two went unders.
Enjoy our A-League Betting Preview? You can read our Premier League edition here and La Liga edition here.
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