A-League Betting Preview: Week 2
Last updated: Oct 25, 2018, 2:20AM | Published: Oct 24, 2018, 10:12AM
For the first time in its 14-year history, every A-League team scored in the opening round. Unfortunately, season 2018/19 picked up where it left off in May, with VAR controversy dominating the talking points across Saturday and Sunday.
The Game: Adelaide v Newcastle
When: Friday 26 Oct, 7:50pm EDT
The Play: Adelaide to win
The Reds snatched a point from Sydney - as we tipped in the opening round preview - with their first goal against the Sky Blues in seven matches. Despite a scrappy opening match, they looked quite comfortable at home and held their own against the reigning champs.
Newcastle were the second-best travelling side in the league last season and were somewhat unlucky to lose at Wellington, registering five more shots, completing nearly twice as many passes (despite 42% possession) and creating more attacking chances. They conceded twice in unfortunate circumstances - once to an own goal and once to a penalty from a very harsh VAR call.
That said, Adelaide are now undefeated at home in seven fixtures and have lost just one of their last seven at home to Newcastle (W5, D1, L1). They're looking to build momentum ahead of the FFA Cup final and will likely be welcoming Diawara and Mileusnic back into the matchday squad.
The Game: Central Coast v Melbourne City
When: Saturday 27 Oct, 5:35pm EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals
The Mariners played some good counter-attacking football, and with plenty of scoring options at their disposal, they should give title contenders Melbourne City a good test on Saturday evening in Gosford.
They spent the majority of their time in Brisbane in defence but gave a fairly good account of themselves, though Adam Taggart squandering chance after chance certainly helped their cause. Kalifa Cisse was out of place quite often and will have a tough time against someone as clinical and efficient as Fornaroli.
City were gifted a controversial penalty by referee Ams against the Victory last week but made the most of their opportunity and controlled the game late to take all three points. There's no doubt that their squad runs deep, illustrated by new recruit Riley McGree scoring the game-winner with his first possession off the pine.
I just think that City are a touch short at the price and am looking at the aforementioned play as a good multi-anchor. 77% of City's away matches last season went overs.
The Game: Sydney v Western Sydney
When: Saturday 27 Oct, 7:50pm EDT
The Play: Sydney -1.0 handicap
This is a three-way market, so we're taking a price of about 3.20 for Sydney FC to win the derby by two or more goals. I'll put it as nicely as I can: I can't rate this Wanderers squad particularly against the strength and depth of their crosstown rivals.
Sydney picked the Wanderers off like flies late in the FFA Cup semi-final just recently and with Adam Le Fondre finding the back of the net in Adelaide, look for him to relish a big game like this.
Wanderers have lost eight of their last 13 derbies (W1, D4), shipping three, three and five goals in their last trio of losses to the Sky Blues. They boxed on last week but there's not a great deal to suggest they'll fare a lot better against a ruthless opposition.
Hopefully, the SCG can hold at least half of the atmosphere of the typical Sydney derby, though I won't be holding my breath.
The Game: Brisbane v Wellington
When: Sunday 28 Oct, 5:00pm
The Play: Under 2.5 goals
The Roar were lacking up forward against the Mariners in the opening round and are frankly a bit short on firepower. With Henrique as their only attacking option on the bench, they have little to turn to - as demonstrated last weekend - when Adam Taggart fails to fire.
Wellington were fortunate to get the three points last weekend with goals coming from Daniel Georgievski's blunder and an interesting penalty. They managed just six shots on goal including three on target, but did well to hold the Jets scoreless at the other end for 94 minutes.
Brisbane failed to score in 36% of their home games last season - the worst in the league - which included a home 0-0 draw with Wellington in December. Value on the unders.
The Game: Melbourne Victory v Perth
When: Sunday 28 Oct, 7:00pm EDT
The Play: Victory to win
Melbourne Victory will be looking to avoid a repeat of last season, where they lost their two opening matches. They looked good in the derby but are lacking a quality striker as long as Toivonen is missing. He should be back at least off the bench this weekend. Keisuke Honda looked the handful we all expect him to be in a competition of this standard.
Perth capped off round one with a handy point at home to Wanderers. 400 completed passes at 82% and eight completed crosses: those kinds of numbers should have you scoring regularly against shaky defences. Popovic's setup can take a few weeks to gel so they'll be vulnerable at a venue where they have won just once from eight visits.
If you're looking to end the weekend with a cheeky first/anytime goalscorer bet, Diego Castro has scored four from his last five games against the Victory.
