A-League Betting Preview: Week 3
Last updated: Oct 30, 2018, 3:50AM | Published: Oct 29, 2018, 7:15AM
Two weeks into the new season and, unfortunately, the focus of the A-League community has picked up where it left off after last year’s Grand Final: on the use (or lack) of the new Video Assistant Referee (VAR). With almost half of the ten matches this season engulfed in refereeing controversies, hopefully, the system is scrapped or rejigged so that we can move on and enjoy the football.
Here, we take a look at the early markets for round three. It’s been an oddly low-scoring start to the season, with just three games going over 2.5 goals. Many sides - namely Perth, City, Victory, Wellington and Sydney - look to have shored up their back fours with off-season recruiting.
As the model is still in its infancy for A-League, it’s strongly recommended that this continues to be used for advisory purposes only while our data crunchers continue to improve it.
Based on the value identified by the model at the time of publication. Subject to change closer to kickoff, so check the match pages on game day for up to date information.
When: Fri Nov 2, 7:50pm EDT
The Play: City to win / Under 2.5 goals
While not quite worthy of an SI smiley face, the model believes there is a +5% edge in favour of a very impressive Melbourne City to knock off the reigning premiers as well as 6% in favour of another low-scoring game (under 2.5).
City are firming into league favouritism after an impressive beginning to the season, and an away point against a vastly improving Central Coast is a pass mark for this time of year. While their recruiting flew under the radar due to the intense focus on Keisuke Honda and Usain Bolt, they appear to be building some fantastic depth in all thirds - similar to what Graham Arnold built in Sydney. You only need to look to their opening fixture against Victory, where a substitute in Riley McGree changed the game with his first touch off the pine.
Sydney continues to go about their business, winning the tenth of their last 16 Sydney derbies. The transition from Arnold to Corica has evidently been seamless and they continue to play good football. The concern here is how they back up from a Cup final in Adelaide on Tuesday night to a Friday night league game in Melbourne.
City have won two of their last six at home against Sydney (D1, L3), including the 2016 FFA Cup final, and with the injury to Siem de Jong and the packed schedule for Sydney, the value for City to win 1-0, 2-0, or hold Sydney to a 1-1 draw looks promising.
Who: Wellington v Western Sydney
When: Sat Nov 3, 5:35pm EDT
The Play: Under 2.5 goals
The first smiley of the week sees the model predicting the Wanderers’ trip to Wellington also falling under the 2.5 total. Phoenix have defended much more resolutely with the experienced heads of Durante and Steven Taylor at the back in addition to two talented full-backs in Doyle and Louis Fenton.
They kept the Roar to just two shots on target in Brisbane last week, while managing two themselves from a total of 12. Steven Taylor’s early entry to the end-of-season blooper reel (a missed tap-in from one metre) stood between the Nix and their best start to an A-League season ever.
In addition to a seemingly solid defence, their below-standard front third personnel also points towards a few Wellington games falling unders this season. With the exception of the consistent Krishna, the Phoenix’s attacking options don’t look up to scratch early on.
Though Markus Babbel’s description of his side as “the worst in the league” was clearly mostly mind games, he won’t be happy with the solitary goal and point they have taken away from their opening two games. He now has to sit in the stands for the trip to Wellington, where they have a 3-3-3 record. Seven of those nine matches have produced under 2.5 total goals.
Who: Newcastle v Melbourne Victory
When: Sat Nov 3 7:50pm EDT
The Play: Under 2.5 goals
A tasty Grand Final rematch. The Victory have been involved in two of the three games this season to go over 2.5, so it’s intriguing to see the model come up with a 9% edge in favour of the unders. However, five of the last six meetings at McDonald Jones between these sides (including the Grand Final) have gone under 2.5, so there is form to suggest this could be another tightly fought contest.
Newcastle were good in Adelaide last week, and held their own in a game of two halves. They sorely miss Roy O’Donovan (and in my opinion have been lacking since the departure of Nabbout), though once Petratos and Vargas are fully firing they won’t be short of options.
Victory are in a similar vein: they badly need a #10 as well as a good backup striker. Ola Toivonen is being eased in and the current starter Kenny Athiu just isn’t up to scratch. Though, like Newcastle, they remain quite deadly up forward: Keisuke Honda is already worth his weight in gold and is lifting Troisi and Barbarouses up with him. The champions have more pressing issues up back, where the centre-halves have not yet gelled and Corey Brown has struggled at left-back.
Both sides will be eyeing this off as winnable, but will also be more than wary of the attacking threats they face. This could also go unders if Victory sort their defensive issues.
Who: Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
When: Sat Nov 3, 10:00pm EDT
The Play: Perth to win
A massive 13% edge on early markets for under 2.5 goals in this fixture also, but I continue to insist (along with a growing number of pundits) that the Glory are genuine dark horses this season and there’s a risk that the Roar won’t even be able to keep their opponents to under 2.5 goals on Saturday night, particularly if the Glory can welcome back Diego Castro from a niggle.
Tony Popovic’s side looks quite mobile and resilient from what we’ve seen so far. Their defensive stocks are solid, particularly with a good defensive full-back in Jason Davidson and it’s reinforced further when Neil Kilkenny drops back. The return of Castro should give Kilkenny more freedom to support the centre-backs. Their scoring options are already aplenty, as we saw in Melbourne last round. The determination they showed to find a winner despite being dominated in the last half-hour was impressive.
Brisbane, on the other hand, look particularly underdone, and Adam Taggart has started the season with a horrendous form slump. When he is off his game, the side seems to struggle; though, to their credit, they have conceded just the one goal so far. Perth should provide much more of a test than the likes of the Mariners and Phoenix.
When: Sun Nov 4, 5:00pm EDT
The Play: Double chance Central Coast-Adelaide (small stake)
Feel free to have the Sunday off - this is too tough to call. If you must bet on this match, I have suggested backing around the draw in the double chance market based on the sole statistic that just one of the last 26 competitive fixtures between these two (including FFA Cup) have ended in a draw.
The Mariners dug in well after Ross McCormack’s opening goal against a dangerous City side who have now scored in 17 consecutive away games. Mike Mulvey has made a concerted effort to not be distracted by the Bolt saga and it is paying off so far, with an away point, as well as a draw against one of the title favourites, a handy start.
Adelaide have also, like the Mariners, begun the season with consecutive 1-1 draws. They frankly should have been awarded a stoppage-time penalty against the Jets, just one of the three or four refereeing controversies to mar the opening two rounds. There is great uncertainty over how Adelaide will back-up from a midweek Cup final that they are so determined to win, though a four-day break should be sufficient for a professional football club.
The two sides have an even head-to-head of 18-9-18. Too many variables mean I cannot attack this game with confidence, particularly with the model finding no significant edge at this stage.
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