A-League Betting Preview: Week 4

We finished up with three out of six on the early A-League smileys last week, but the value overs (particularly on the Jets-Victory game to go unders) left us in a breakeven position in an otherwise profitable weekend of football. With some very tasty games to come this weekend, it’s time to build some early season momentum after a sluggish start! 

With just 47% of total matches producing over 2.5 goals - bizarrely low by A-League standards - it appears there is still value to be found from backing the unders. Admittedly, the A-League model continues to show some inconsistency early on, so take these numbers with a grain of salt for another few weeks as the team continues to refine it.

Who: Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix

When: Fri 9 Nov, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

10% play on offer for the opening game of the round to fall unders. Just one goal to City’s name in two weeks including a very underwhelming performance against the reigning premiers, recording their sixth consecutive loss to Sydney. They’ll be focusing on the back third this week and should bounce back with a comfortable win against Wellington. 

The Phoenix just don’t have any quality attacking options outside of Krishna. They are currently shooting at just 35% accuracy (with a conversion rate of just 7%) and their only goals have come through fortune. Concerningly, they have just seven goals to their name from their last 14 away from home. Hard to see them finding the back of the net against Schenkeveld and co, but often known as one of the leakier defences in the league year to year, they’ve done well up back so far. 

Who: Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar

When: Sat 10 Nov, 5:35pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Like the Phoenix, Brisbane too have a poor, one-dimensional attack that relies on normally consistent striker Adam Taggart, who has had an abysmal start to the season. They’re shooting at just 28% accuracy and are one of four clubs to start the season with just two goals to their name after three rounds. 

On that basis, I don’t mind the +9% edge on the unders found by the Stats Insider model, particularly as the Wanderers have been defending fairly well. The big uncertainty is how the trip to Mudgee (and what kind of pitch is produced for the occasion) will affect the match. 

Who: Newcastle United v Sydney FC

When: Sat 10 Nov, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Newcastle to win 

The model currently believes there is a +7% edge in backing the hosts, who sit bottom of the table with just one point to their name after the loss to Victory last week. Sydney have, however. failed to win their last two league games against the Jets, with Newcastle’s gritty 2-1 win in March last season setting them on their way to a top-two place. 

Just how the Jets are going to negate the simply awesome Adam Le Fondre, who has scored in all six of his appearances for the Sky Blues, is anybody’s guess, but Ernie Merrick is one of the few tactical geniuses in this league who may just have an idea or two up his sleeve. #TrustTheModel

Who: Adelaide United v Perth Glory

When: Sun 11 Nov, 5:00pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Another value play for the unders here according to the model, and Perth Glory will provide a great test for a United side who have conceded just the two goals so far this season thanks to a solid wall at the back (tackle success rate of 65%). I highly rate this Perth Glory squad and touted them for top four at the start of the season, but will still be surprised to see them put 2+ past Adelaide on the road as they have done against some much more leaky defences.

Both fixtures last season produced three goals each, and with the current edge at 5%, it’s probably only worth taking if you agree with it.

Who: Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners

When: Sun 11 Nov, 7:00pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Keisuke Honda is building something special - he’s had a part to play in all four Victory goals this season (three assists and one goal to his name) and it’s evident that he has already had a positive impact on the midfielders and wingers around him. It looks as though it could only be a matter of time before the reigning champions start banging the goals in again, though as long as they continue to have no established striker, there will always be value in the unders wherever they go.

The Mariners look in a spot of bother, which given the best back four they can put on the pitch is no surprise, but when you look at the attacking recruits they’ve brought to the club (Oar and McCormack among others) their current tally of two goals is well under par. When Andrew Hoole is credited with being their best playmaker of the game (as he was in the 0-3 loss to Adelaide), you’ve got to worry for them. 

Three of the last four meetings between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals - three of them in Melbourne.