A-League Preview: Week 10

Did you take the value with Melbourne City last week? The SI model found a good price for City to win, and while they couldn't get the job done, we suggested the double chance as an alternate play which was snapped up by some subscribers!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Melbourne Victory v Wellington

When: Fri 28 Dec 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 Goals

The Victory hit only a minor setback last week after conceding a last-minute equaliser in the derby, but to get a point against a quality outfit without Niedermeier, Honda or Baena was a very handy result.

Keisuke Honda should return this week as they host a Wellington side who have won only twice in Melbourne in ten years of football. There's no better chance than this week for them to buck that trend, flying high after three consecutive wins, including one in Sydney. 

Wellington should have a more difficult offensive task on their hands, with Victory's best defence conceding just four goals in their last four matches in Melbourne. We prefer to take the value in the total goals market here, with 51% of 10,000 simulations producing results with under 2.5 total goals. The price you can find at the moment suggests something closer to a 41% likelihood, which equates to a 10% edge - an orange smiley on our A-League scale.

Just one of Wellington's three away trips - their 3-1 win at Sydney - have gone overs. Expecting them to defend sharply here.

With the last seven H2H meetings coming up with three or more total goals, you're betting against history but trusting the model!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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