A-League Preview: Week 11

Four out of four in the new A-League preview format after the Victory and Phoenix stalemate last week was held to under 2.5 goals - the SI model had a massive 10% edge in favour of that at time of writing and prices close to $2.50 depending on where you shopped. 

We're going to try our luck again on the unders, with the A-League model finding a massive 11% edge with the Friday night game our free Match of the Week.

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

When: Fri 4 Jan 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Another $2.50 value play as we take on the match total after a successful week last week. Nobody saw Victory and Phoenix scoring under 2.5 last week - except the model! This time we have an 11% edge - an orange smiley on the A-League scale - in favour of the unders in Sydney.

The Sky Blues are back on track after their slip up against Wellington, winning three in a row. It's not all smooth sailing for Corica's men: they have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight consecutive matches. They have been getting the job done in the final third, scoring in every match this season, ranked third in the league with a total of 18 goals. 

All of their last six games have gone over 2.5 total goals, so we're trusting the model and trusting the lowly Mariners to lift, having conceded two or more goals in all of their eight consecutive losses in the worst start to a season the A-League has ever seen.

The H2H history suggests that the Mariners could be capable of getting us home here: three of the last five meetings between these sides have produced under 2.5 total goals.

As seen below on the TAB website and app, the unders is saluting on 49% of 10,000 simulations, so bear in mind it's not technically the most "likely" of circumstances, but absolutely worth a nibble at the $2.50 price.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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