A-League Preview: Week 12

All good things must come to an end, and that includes winning plays! But, you'd be laughing if you have been following our free A-League previews throughout the last month or so. On to Week 12!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar

When: Fri 11 Jan 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

I mentioned in Week One this season that each A-League week opens up great opportunities for finding value in the unders, because although 63% of regular season matches in 2017/18 produced over 2.5 total goals, this means that bookmakers are often keeping the price for the overs far too safe. 

The Stats Insider model continues to underrate the over 2.5 goals in the A-League to good effect, identifying some huge edges in these markets. We hope that good form continues this week when the solidly defending Melbourne City host the struggling Roar.

City have conceded  just twice in their last four matches and also in their last four at home, thus it is somewhat surprising to see $2.25 available for under 2.5 goals, given only two of seven H2H meetings at AAMI Park (since the start of the City era) have had 3+ goals scored, and that two of City's last six have been either penalties or own goals. 

Joyce's men have managed just 123 shots (second-least in the league) and 41 on target (second-least in the league) which equates to a 33% accuracy (third-worst in the league). The fallout with striker Fornaroli has certainly hurt.

Granted, they get a perfect opportunity to continue building momentum against a Roar opposition who have conceded a staggering 20 goals in a seven-game winless run (including 4+ on three occasions).

As you can see on the TAB website below, the model currently rates the unders as a 52.2% likelihood based on 10,000 simulations of the match. With the price suggesting something closer to 42%, we consider this a 10% edge - worthy of an orange smiley on the A-League scale given the model is still in its infancy.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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