A-League Preview: Week 14

Back to winning ways last week for the A-League model as Brisbane held Melbourne City to a 1-0 scoreline, getting the under 2.5 play well and truly up. Stats Insider is king at finding the rare A-League unders! What has it got for us this week?

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

When: Sun 20 Jan 7:00pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

It's the stoppable force vs the movable object. The not-so-highly anticipated scrap of the season between the cellar dwellers - the Mariners and the Roar - closes out Round 14 of the A-League. But value is value, and we've got a free orange smiley to offer you in this David v David clash in Gosford. 

Both clubs have followed a similar path throughout 2018/19, tapering away badly after opening the season with consecutive draws. The Mariners found their breakthrough on Wednesday - albeit against a weak City side with a career defender (Ritchie de Laet) as starting striker and off the back of an 89th minute penalty - but that could be the morale boost that they desperately need.

The Roar, meanwhile, lost to City just last weekend in Melbourne, but kept them to just the one goal in what was a winning free value play for our readers (under 2.5 goals). We fancy a similar result on Sunday night, with three of the last four H2H matches seeing under 2.5 total goals scored.

Both sides are planted in the bottom four of the league for shots on target, corners, passing accuracy and crossing accuracy and goals scored. Brisbane's route one attacking is likely to keep CCM's inexperienced defence tested all evening, but with only two multiple goalscorers to Brisbane's name this season, the Mariners may be able to hold them at bay.

As seen on the TAB website and app below (look for 'The Edge'), 49.5% of 10,000 Stats Insider simulations are currently producing totals of under 2.5 goals. Would you take odds of $2.30 for a coin toss? We sure would!

For those of you who like a first goalscorer bet, Taggart has achieved it only twice this season - so look for value around him as the bookies always keep him a bit too safe. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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