A-League Preview: Week 15

Missing our A-League free plays of the week? You're missing out on free money! Six of our last seven weeks have been juicy winners! The mid-week round takes us to the F3 derby in Newcastle...

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners

When: Wed 23 Jan 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

The 46th F3 derby concludes the Wednesday A-League doubleheader (a midweek round to make up for the international breaks which are now being observed by the FFA) and we aren't expecting any kind of 8-2 results on this occasion!

The Mariners followed up their first A-League win in almost a year with their second draw of the season against the Roar, and aren't without a chance if they can continue to play with more belief here. 

They have tightened up their defence, which was mostly responsible for a run of five consecutive matches going over 2.5 goals. They're still conceding 15 shots per game on average, but should have an easier time of it against the least accurate shooting side in the league (just 28%!).

Just 33% of Jets games have seen three or more goals scored despite just one clean sheet to their name. They return home after three consecutive away trips, which can be taxing, and we suspect this will only help the Mariners to keep the goals down here.

Just four of the last 13 F3 derbies dating back to the start of the 2014/15 season have gone overs, so you've got H2H history on your side here as well. 

As seen on 'The Edge' on the TAB website and app below, the Stats Insider model is predicting that a slim majority - 51.5% to be precise - of its 10,000 simulations to fall under 2.5 total goals. That's a massive 10% edge! Who wouldn't take odds of 2.30 for a coin flip? 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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