A-League Preview: Week 16

Seven winners from the last eight rounds! Ridiculous winning run for the free A-League plays! The Stats Insider A-League model is proving to be worth its weight in gold in just its first season of operation. Is there anything more 'strayan than backing a winner on our national day?

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

When: Sat 26 Jan 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

The 'Big Blue'. Always a highly anticipated clash on the A-League calendar, particularly the annual Australia Day meeting. But a high scoring fixture? Surprisingly not, would you believe! 

Currently there is a ~8% edge in favour of this Saturday's match falling under 2.5, and I suspect that may increase even further once the early markets build up some liquidity. The unders is always underrated in Victory-SFC H2Hs, and yet the stats suggest otherwise: just four of the last 11 meetings between these two sides have seen three or more goals scored by the full-time whistle, three of them during Sydney's peak under Graham Arnold during 2016/17 and early 2017/18. 

Sydney are no longer invincible, as seen in their Kogarah defeats to the Victory and Phoenix earlier in the season, but they have put together two clean sheets in the last week - their third and fourth of the 2018/19 season. 

The Victory are still putting together two goals a game on average without Keisuke Honda, though it was three per game with him on the pitch, so his absence has been felt albeit not as gravely as their fans may have initially feared. 

Early markets - as seen on the TAB website below - are offering a $2.10 price for a -2.5 goals outcome that is coming up trumps in 53.3% of our 10,000 simulations, or equivalent of about $1.87. Great value. 

First goalscorer tip? Hard to take $5.50 for anyone in this market, but Ola Toivonen has opened the scoring in four of his last seven appearances. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

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READ: What is the Edge?

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