A-League Preview: Week 17

Last updated: Jan 31, 2019, 4:01AM | Published: Jan 26, 2019, 10:13PM

The A-League model still boasts seven wins from the last nine free plays, despite a minor bump in the road to glory last week (under 2.5 goals in the 'Big Blue' denied by the post!), but with 20 goals scored in nine games at Hindmarsh Stadium this season, we're confident of making it eight from ten.

Our free play of the week is live on FTA (10 BOLD) this week, so no excuses not to follow it and enjoy!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Adelaide United v Brisbane Roar

When: Saturday 2 Feb 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Adelaide United have scored just ten goals at home from nine matches this season, and with Brisbane's last two away trips seeing under 2.5 goals scored, we've identified this match as an opportunity for value - and the model agrees.

Just one of the last 21 H2H's between these sides have been drawn, with Brisbane winning 11 to nine. But it's not the win market we are interested in here: of a total of 25 league/cup meetings in Adelaide, only nine have produced three or more total goals (though the overs is on a three-game streak, it must be noted).

Whereas our good friends at the TAB are offering a price that suggests a 43% likelihood of this one falling under 2.5, the Stats Insider model disagrees, with 51.4% of our 10,000 simulations coming up trumps.

As I like to say (a little too much, according to my colleagues): would you take $2.20 for a coin toss? Of course you would!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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Aaron Murphy

Armchair critic in all sports that don't involve tackle counts. Unashamedly biased towards Victorians. Stands up because he loves the darts. Wisden Almanacks are his idea of a good book. If he's not playing sport, watching sport, or talking sport, he's thinking about sport. Sport.