A-League Preview: Week 18

A massive 15% edge on offer (at time of publication, subject to change) for our A-League free play of the week! Oh boy!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Western Sydney v Central Coast

When: Saturday 9 Feb 5:35pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

A 15% edge play! Too huge to ignore as we enjoy a green smiley rarely seen since our A-League model has continued to refine itself, producing superb profits since the latter months of 2018. 

Western Sydney host one of just two clubs struggling even more than them at this stage, though given the pre-season expectations and squad on paper, I've got no qualms stating that the Wanderers are the standout underachievers of 2018/19.

You know you've got problems when your own manager continues to state that he is in charge of the "worst team in the league"!

The word "mathematical" is now being bandied about in regards to their finals chances, which is never a good sign. They can only continue to fight, and a home game against the Mariners presents an opportunity to make a late pitch. 

They return to the site of their last A-League win - Spotless Stadium - where they triumphed 2-0 over the Mariners themselves! With their last seven matches all going over 2.5 goals as well as seven of the Mariners' last nine, the bookies can be forgiven for keeping the overs terribly safe here. 

That said, the Mariners have defended better against weaker attacks (one goal conceded against Brisbane, the Jets and City) and, despite losing almost their entire back four in the last fortnight, I fancy them to lift on this occasion. Both clubs are shooting with a low 43-46% accuracy, which in WSW's case is making their league second-high 91 shots on target quite irrelevant given their results.

Whereas the juicy price of $2.50 suggests that this play is less than a 40% chance of saluting according to our good friends at the TAB (as seen in Stats Insider's 'The Edge' on the TAB website and app), our model has 53.3% of at least 10,000 match simulations producing two or fewer goals. $2.50 for a narrow favourite?! Let's hope it's still available on matchday, because I feel this won't last long!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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