A-League Preview: Week 19

Did you catch our massive 17% edge last week? With eight of our last ten A-League free plays saluting, there's no reason not to get on board and spread the good word! The SI A-League model is kicking bookie butt!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

When: Fri 15 Feb 5:35pm EDT

View the Play: Wellington to win / double chance

A big crowd is expected at Auckland’s Eden Park for a blockbuster clash between the Phoenix - who have never lost at this venue - and the reigning, but vulnerable, champions, Melbourne Victory, who have struggled in New Zealand of late. 

The Kiwis are playing their best football in years under Mark Rudan, and after simulating the match 10,000 times, the Stats Insider model has identified some value in their favour for this contest. Wellington have won three of their last five in New Zealand against the Victory, as well as four of their last five overall at home, losing only to Sydney. In addition, they have managed to correct a once abysmal record against Melbourne at neutral/away venues, which bodes well for the value play here.

Whereas the average market price suggests the Phoenix have a 33% chance of taking this one out, the model has them winning nearly 40% of all simulations - that means the double chance / draw no bet markets are likely worth some value as well, if that's your preferred betting strategy. 

Melbourne have won eight of their last ten on the road (D1 L1), but are an entirely different side without Ola Toivonen, as last week’s home loss to the Glory demonstrated (as well as their slow start to the season before he was eased into the XI). His fitness remains uncertain at the time of publication, and should he not take his place here, the current 6% edge for Wellington is excellent value. One to take a look at on matchday. 

This match also has found a 9% orange smiley for a second market on this match! What is it? You can find out with a premium subscription FREE TRIAL!

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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